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3 , 15 EOD EMA Cross over trades |
amitsaraf
White Belt
Joined: 14 May 2010
Posts: 6
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Post: #16  Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:59 am Post subject: Re: 3 , 15 EOD EMA Cross over trades |
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What triggered the square off sir
| stevenmat wrote: | Since i have never seen any one posting this method of trading ... I thought i'll start...
Basically during the course i will post on this forum when there is a crossover. The best way to make use of this is to buy calls/puts. P
Although this method has almost a flawless profit making strike rate, the only problem with the method is that you get to take only a few trades. But the risk reward is quite appealing.
Just to give a recent example nifty had a bearish 3 - 15 day EMA crossover On feb 1st. and since i knew that this crossover would happen i bought 6100 puts at a price of 111.8 just before the close on 1st. and i squared off the position on feb 5th at 152 (Return of approx 36 %).
This way we can trade on the index when ever there is a cross over.
I will post on this forum when the crossover is just about to happen.
I know this forum will be dormant most of the time. But this method is for patient traders.
Cheers !! |
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amitsaraf
White Belt
Joined: 14 May 2010
Posts: 6
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| Post: #17 Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:07 pm Post subject: Funny isn't it. |
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not only that such exits are bakwaas but the process through which they are reached is unscientific and funny. Amazing how one imagines such a parameter for exit. That ha probably happens because they see those 250 bars and 20-30 odd entries in one instrument and imagine one best fit exit that will give them maximum profits.
| opportunist wrote: | | SUNILA wrote: | Hi opportunist,
Can u explain exit in detail (Exit on flattening of 10 period Bollinger Band)
Thanks
Sunila |
It means when the BB upper/lower band (as the case may be for long/short) is no longer pointing up/down at around 30-45 degrees (dont go for the number of degrees but generally pointing up or down) it means it is flattening. However, I have rethought the issue and find that this is a little vague for many though personally I have no problem following it. So I would suggest that one may keep a TSL of last candle low and exit automatically on being stopped out.
Regards,
Oppo |
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amitsaraf
White Belt
Joined: 14 May 2010
Posts: 6
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| Post: #18 Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:30 pm Post subject: test with last candle high/low exit and see results. |
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haan last candle low and high ke exit se test karnaa phir dekhnaa kyaa result aata hai.
| opportunist wrote: | | SUNILA wrote: | Hi opportunist,
Can u explain exit in detail (Exit on flattening of 10 period Bollinger Band)
Thanks
Sunila |
It means when the BB upper/lower band (as the case may be for long/short) is no longer pointing up/down at around 30-45 degrees (dont go for the number of degrees but generally pointing up or down) it means it is flattening. However, I have rethought the issue and find that this is a little vague for many though personally I have no problem following it. So I would suggest that one may keep a TSL of last candle low and exit automatically on being stopped out.
Regards,
Oppo |
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kingkrunal
White Belt
Joined: 22 Jun 2012
Posts: 498
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| Post: #19 Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 5:32 pm Post subject: Re: test with last candle high/low exit and see results. |
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| amitsaraf wrote: | haan last candle low and high ke exit se test karnaa phir dekhnaa kyaa result aata hai.
| opportunist wrote: | | SUNILA wrote: | Hi opportunist,
Can u explain exit in detail (Exit on flattening of 10 period Bollinger Band)
Thanks
Sunila |
It means when the BB upper/lower band (as the case may be for long/short) is no longer pointing up/down at around 30-45 degrees (dont go for the number of degrees but generally pointing up or down) it means it is flattening. However, I have rethought the issue and find that this is a little vague for many though personally I have no problem following it. So I would suggest that one may keep a TSL of last candle low and exit automatically on being stopped out.
Regards,
Oppo |
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amit bhai what happened ??? pls share your results... |
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svkum
White Belt
Joined: 14 Feb 2007
Posts: 321
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| Post: #20 Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 7:08 pm Post subject: |
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EXPLAIN WITH CHARTS PL
SEEDHI BAAT NO BAKWAAS |
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opportunist
White Belt
Joined: 27 Apr 2010
Posts: 356
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| Post: #21 Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 7:47 pm Post subject: Re: test with last candle high/low exit and see results. |
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| amitsaraf wrote: | haan last candle low and high ke exit se test karnaa phir dekhnaa kyaa result aata hai.
| opportunist wrote: | | SUNILA wrote: | Hi opportunist,
Can u explain exit in detail (Exit on flattening of 10 period Bollinger Band)
Thanks
Sunila |
It means when the BB upper/lower band (as the case may be for long/short) is no longer pointing up/down at around 30-45 degrees (dont go for the number of degrees but generally pointing up or down) it means it is flattening. However, I have rethought the issue and find that this is a little vague for many though personally I have no problem following it. So I would suggest that one may keep a TSL of last candle low and exit automatically on being stopped out.
Regards,
Oppo |
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The result is better with last high/low TSL. But one thing I forgot to say, I have used 89EMA as an indicator of trendiness. Hence flat 89 EMAs have made me ignore an entry or exit thereby giving me no negative results.
Oppo. |
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amitsaraf21
White Belt
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 76
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| Post: #22 Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 1:06 pm Post subject: mein lajawaab ho gayaa |
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| jawaab nahi iss flat 89EMA kaa. |
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opportunist
White Belt
Joined: 27 Apr 2010
Posts: 356
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| Post: #23 Posted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 2:33 am Post subject: Re: mein lajawaab ho gayaa |
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| amitsaraf21 wrote: | | jawaab nahi iss flat 89EMA kaa. |
Was thinking of elaborating the exact details of the rules which would make things precise and objective.
But on second thoughts I felt that why explain to people who will keep on abusing you. If anyone felt my method has holes one could have kept on questioning till he discovered what the method is or found the error. But inquiry to find/learn is not the motive here. I think ego problem is the real issue. |
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svkum
White Belt
Joined: 14 Feb 2007
Posts: 321
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| Post: #24 Posted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:54 pm Post subject: |
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forum is meant for communicating to all ichartians , not have commn 1to1, if thats is the case, use PMS and go on.
other would learn out of your strategy , so go ahead , and learn to ignore barking dogs. |
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amitsaraf21
White Belt
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 76
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| Post: #25 Posted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 2:28 pm Post subject: Re: mein lajawaab ho gayaa |
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| opportunist wrote: | | amitsaraf21 wrote: | | jawaab nahi iss flat 89EMA kaa. |
Was thinking of elaborating the exact details of the rules which would make things precise and objective.
But on second thoughts I felt that why explain to people who will keep on abusing you. If anyone felt my method has holes one could have kept on questioning till he discovered what the method is or found the error. But inquiry to find/learn is not the motive here. I think ego problem is the real issue. |
Absolutely inquiry to learn is definitely not the motive. The attempt of such analysis to takeout/avoid even the single negative trade is achieved by curve fitting.
Earlier results were with flattening BB which again cannot be mechanized. So best it was a discretionary system.
Another time you talking about flat 89EMA which is again cannot be mechanized, even if it can be mechanized you should have shared the parameters in the beginning itself.
Not that i want to abuse someone or say negative about someone but if someone is making some foolish analysis, which is unscientific baseless and utter bakwaas it hurts me. Because such analysis misleads a lot of readers. Such attempt to mislead is intentional or unintentional is a different story.
Most of the times i find such analysis funny but not always, it angers me sometimes as well. Such analysis is coming form a person who has (or claims to have) good knowledge of mathematics and statistics.
Fact is what you are doing is not analysis, what you are doing is plotting a 3/15 DMA crossover and adding additional studies/parameters/rules/subrules etc etc that best fits that limited amount of data.
Such backtest is unscientific and totally flawed.
Forums are definitely a common place for all ichartians so i am keeping all criticism public and continue to stick with the topic rather than calling something an ego issue or call for ignoring someone. When someone is posting his/her analysis in public place, criticism and appreciation both are invited simultaneously. |
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opportunist
White Belt
Joined: 27 Apr 2010
Posts: 356
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| Post: #26 Posted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 6:16 pm Post subject: |
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| svkum wrote: | forum is meant for communicating to all ichartians , not have commn 1to1, if thats is the case, use PMS and go on.
other would learn out of your strategy , so go ahead , and learn to ignore barking dogs. |
Yeah svkum sir..."barking dogs" |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #27 Posted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 6:44 pm Post subject: |
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One of the things which makes me to stay away from mechanical system is that it is based on that we have to track market every day (even it is spending 5 mins everyday). If this is not done then we may miss a bigger move and end up taking multiple losses or other way around. In stead I would prefer methods which does not force track market all trading days of a year and profit does not concentrate on 1-2 big moves. It will be ok to track market a few days together (intraday or non-intraday) and it does not spoil one's holidays for a few days.  Just my thought.
Hope it make sense to all!
Happy weekend. |
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stevenmat
White Belt
Joined: 27 Dec 2011
Posts: 478
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| Post: #28 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 4:18 pm Post subject: |
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Apparently we should have held our puts till expiry...returns would have been 266% ... Anyways 30% in two days is better than 266% over three weeks...
Coming to the point...
We have to get a confirmation from weekly close ie tomorrow's closing is crucial ..if it closes below 5840 ( which is 140 points away from today's close) it then forms a 3 15 EMA cross over on the weekly charts.. And hence we enter a medium term bear phase..
We can start accumulating puts at tmrw's closing .. Lets see
cheers
stevenmat |
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mistrymah
White Belt
Joined: 02 Apr 2012
Posts: 1
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| Post: #29 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 9:04 pm Post subject: very nice.... grreat strategy.. im bookmarkin this threads.. |
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| grreat strategy.. im bookmarkin this thread |
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stevenmat
White Belt
Joined: 27 Dec 2011
Posts: 478
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| Post: #30 Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:44 am Post subject: |
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We will most probably buy puts just before close if and only if nifty closes below its open... We do not want to but puts if nifty forms an inside bullish harami... In that case we will get higher levels to short..
N.B : All i am looking for now is a right spot to short..
Opposite views are always welcome !
cheers
stevenmat |
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