iCharts Discussions

[givemegold]

The following informations are just copied and pasted from various media sources. I just compiled them to arrive the probabilities of what FM might have been preparing for our nation, in the ensuing budget.

(I) One of my learned friend said in his blog:

Three important factors I wish to look into in this budget for fiscal year 2012-2013.

Complete freedom in oil pricing - No import duties on importing Crudeoil - No Excise duty nor any other central taxes at all -- Give oil marketing companies total freedom in integrating local fuel prices with that of International markets. And thus, finally say a big "NO" to oil subsidies in what-so-ever form.

Kick off a big bang approach on Infrastructure spending..... How to fund it?? declare one more "mega type amnesty scheme" in bringing unaccounted money to be invested in long gestation period Infrastructures development schemes ..what if some one wish to invest Good Money... Give them total 100% tax benefits at the time of investment....

This country desperately needs one more big push on Agricultural Green Revolution... We need higher agricultural productivity bench marked with the best.

(II) Market biggies are sitting on huge cash pile -- Information compiled from First Post.

The big cashboys of UK and US are all rolling in money. Ambrose Evans Pritchard, writing in The Telegraph, says that US corporations are holding $1.73 trillion (Rs 8,563,500 crore) in cash, and British non-financial companies £731 billion (Rs 5,731,000 crore).

India’s top 100 companies (as in the BSE 500) had cash or cash equivalents of Rs 3,30,000 crore at the end of March last year. This figure could only have risen since then because companies are not investing much, and the profits have swelled in the nine months since then.

Reliance alone reported cash of Rs 97,000 crore in December 2011 (including the balance money that came in from BP for sale of a 30 percent stake in Krishna-Godavari offshore gas). It announced a share buyback costing around Rs 10,500 crore – which it will recoup in less than two quarters.

But more than that, Reliance is still raising money. This week, a Reliance subsidiary in the US announced that it had raised $1 billion in 10-year bonds at 3.45 percent more than US treasury yields.

When a company sitting on $20 billion in cash raises another $1 billion, it offers us a clue on what is really going on.

Companies with cash are trying to make money from money. The chances are corporations worldwide are trying to earn more treasury incomes by investing in assets outside the business – including bonds and stocks – to bump up their earnings in an uncertain global export environment.

The world is awash with money – and this money is what is feeding a part of the stock boom, worldwide and in India.

Now you also know why the real economy is looking different from the financial one.

(III) Black Money amnesty scheme:

some interesting news on Amensty Scheme - Read this article in Times of India:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Amnesty-scheme-on-cards-for-black-money/articleshow/9986584.cms

First Post says in one article: *Black money holders may get RED carpet in Budget 2012... See the attached screen shot

(IV) Probabilities are brighter that RBI might cut repo rate this time

First Post says:

The Reserve Bank of India on Friday disclosed what happened at the last technical advisory committee (TAC) meeting on 18 January: Governor Duvvuri Subbarao had to plough a lone furrow on holding interest rates.

According to the minutes of TAC – an advisory body comprising internal and external members rendering non-binding advice to the governor on monetary policy – a majority of the external advisors called for an easing of interest rates. Some clearly said the RBI must now target slowing growth instead of inflation.

The lip-readers are deducing many things: that he is finally biting the bullet on reducing interest rates; that he is now more worried about growth than inflation; that he probably expects Pranab Mukherjee to present a budget that is fiscally responsible.

(V) Finally FIIs (One of the well informed smart investors - Shrewed enough to chart out the course of market in advance) are pouring with hot hot moneis.. So far in March they have invested more than Rs.1,100++ crores.... see the screen shot

Therefore, bulls be ready to sing ** Ahaya pandalile Pon oonjal aaduthamma** --

[givemegold]

Market under-current indicates bulls are getting more strength day by day. FIIs are bullish.

Last time during FEB 29, i have posted status on golden cross - all four parameters (i.e) 50 / 200 bullish cross over on EMA, WMA, TMA, and SMA. At that point of time, SMA was lagging.

See this link: http://www.icharts.in/forum/correction-ends-successfully-consolidation-starts-t4204.html

Now, what is the status.... bulls are jumping with joy armed with FII money. Confirmation of Golden cross on 50 / 200 SMA will also happen sooner.

Look at this following charts on Nifty / Bank Nifty / CNX IT -- all spots only.

Enjoy trading.. be profitable always.

[givemegold]

Bulls enjoy -- FIIs are continuously buying. Last two days they bought more than 2400++ crores in cash market Looks like there is something big surprise in the budget. Smart money is playing long enthusiastically with adequate hedging.

Now look at this attached nifty spot chart -- Golden cross confimed with SMA parameter also. On EMA,WMA,TMA parameters it has been sustaining golden cross during last several sessions. We were waiting for SMA also, that has happened yesterday.

On PSAR also it triggers bullish long signal.

Enjoy bulls

[rajannt1980]

your post was intresting but when i backtested , it creates lot of confusion , in may 2011 sma 50 , 200 had a downward crosover around 5464 and market reversed to 6000 ........ any sugg.

[givemegold]

@RAJANNT1980 - Golden cross (50ma crossing over 200ma from beneath) and death cross (50ma crossing over 200 ma from the top) are general indicators which highlight general bullish / bearish trends respectively in overall market. Big funds take this indicator as an important one inorder to take a fresh position, (i.e) whenever there is a correction in bull trend they go on buying spree and vice-versa. In the current market scenario, Foreign funds are buying since 4600 in a big irrespective of existing trend at that point of time.

As in the case of May 2011, after death cross happened, market went up to 6000 - that means every rise was a sell.

[givemegold]

Nifty - Banknifty - CNX IT all three major indices are celebrating **GOLDEN CROSS BULLISH TREND** -- We have been watching these three indices very closely, during last two weeks. CNX IT was the first one to initiate golden cross that is followed by Nifty and Bank nifty.

Now it is the time for other followers namely:- Realty, Infra, Midcap, Junior indices. As it is their nature that they silently follow the major three indices mentioned in the above paragraph, they are yet to initiate golden cross --

At present, the over all global market is in a highly bullish mood, as they are armed with huge pile of cash -- Our Indian market also will witness high jump game by enthusiastic bulls. Look at the charts attached here. For your information: Yesterday also, FIIs pumpied in more than 800 crores in cash segment and went long.


To catchup the game & play with trend - as a trader I love to watch the laggards - in Realty, Infra, Midcap, Junior indices. My understanding says, these indices will witness huge profitable trades today. Anyway, as usual play safe - keep your positional trades adequately hedged.

List of stocks listed under Realty, Infra, Midcap, Junior indices can be had from here: http://www.icharts.in/stock-lists.html

[givemegold]

Railway minister hikes passenger rates - this happened after several years ( 8-10 years) -- Also he said, passenger rates will be lined to fuel prices. Bulls welcome this.. Finally we see some prudent steps are taken.

This is only a begining - the main budget will give boost - Bulls trust Pranab da will open up investment flood gate widely and start reducing subsdies.

If FM shows some sanity and enforce financial discipline in fiscal management, markets will fly a minimum of 10-15% from here

Bulls hope for the best... simultaneously hedge your postions adequately.

Enjoy

[givemegold]

FII Bulls may rollback their going long strategy - may book profit and takeout money off the table.

Thanks - Didi Mamta banerjee -- forcing the railway minister to resign for his some what prudent budget... She is compelling govt to roll back railway passenger ticket price hike... bulls will respond by rolling back their long position.

I ve been telling keep your positions hedged adequately. Now watch out carefully. take care

[maddyprincess]

http://blog.currensee.com/tag/golden-cross/

http://www.amateur-investors.com/Golden_Cross.htm

Conflicting views on Golden Cross

1. Says good when economy emerges from recession
2. Says only good in "Bull markets"