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A Hitchhiker's Guide To The Greek Crisis, On This, The Day Of The Vote Of (No) Confidence




LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

The cabinet of Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a confidence vote late on Tuesday, the first of three tests the Greek government must survive to avert the euro zone's first sovereign debt default.

The vote follows a euro zone ultimatum that the debt-choked Mediterranean state must enact a new five-year package of painful economic reforms within two weeks or miss out on a 12-billion-euro aid tranche that it needs to avert bankruptcy.

Parliament will debate the confidence vote against a backdrop of deep public anger over the pain of the austerity measures. IMF and European inspectors have arrived in Athens to discuss changes requested by Greece to the reform package.

Unions and grassroots activists will protest at parliament ahead of the vote, building on more than three weeks of demonstrations that erupted into violence last week and split the ruling PASOK party.

German insurer Allianz has warned against a "haircut" for holders of Greek sovereign debt, saying it could trigger a dangerous chain reaction.

WHAT'S NEXT?

Confidence vote in Greek parliament at 2100 GMT
Representatives from "troika" of EU, IMF and European Central Bank in Athens for talks through June 22
European Union summit meeting in Brussels on June 23-24
Parliamentary vote on more austerity steps tentatively set for June 28
Main labour unions to launch 48-hour strike on day of austerity vote



WHAT'S THE PROBLEM?

Greece has a sovereign debt pile of 340 billion euros ($481.5 billion), more than 30,000 euros per person in a population of 11.3 million. The 110-billion-euro bailout Greece accepted last year from the European Union and International Monetary Fund has proved insufficient and a second package worth 120 billion euros is now under discussion. With its debt equivalent to 150 percent of annual output, Greece holds two unwanted world records: the lowest credit rating for a sovereign state, and the most expensive debt to insure. Its people have lost patience with an ever-deepening austerity drive that has slashed public sector wages by a fifth and pensions by a tenth.

Around 53 billion of the original 110 billion euro package has been paid out so far. The government estimates that Greek debt will reach about 350 billion euros at the end of this year, taking in EU/IMF aid tranches including the 12 billion euro emergency loan earmarked for July.

About 70 percent of Greece's debt is held abroad and the remainder at home. Greece is paying an average 4.2 percent interest rate on EU/IMF bailout loans.



WHY DOES IT MATTER OUTSIDE GREECE?

The longer the crisis drags on, the greater the risk that contagion will spread to other troubled euro zone economies like Ireland and Portugal, which have also been bailed out before, and Spain, which is much bigger and would be far more expensive -- perhaps too expensive -- to rescue.

A default by Greece would hammer the banks that hold its debt, including the European Central Bank and big French and German lenders. It could also prompt credit markets to freeze up, as happened after Lehman's demise when banks virtually stopped lending to each other.

The White House said on June 16 the Greek crisis was acting as a headwind to the U.S. economy but opinions vary as to the level of exposure of U.S. banks.

A Greek default would be a catastrophe and a humiliation for the European Union, which launched the euro in 1999 as its most ambitious project and a symbol of the continent's unity. It has prompted some commentators to think the unthinkable: that the euro zone might break up, either by the expulsion of Greece or the departure of Germany, the EU's paymaster, which might be tempted to return to its own currency.

SO WHY NOT JUST BAIL GREECE OUT AGAIN?

The EU's big players -- notably Germany, France and the European Central Bank -- have struggled to work out a rescue mechanism. European governments are keen to avoid a "hard default" because this could threaten banks throughout the euro zone and further afield.

They are therefore discussing a "soft landing" in the form of a debt extension or voluntary rollover by creditors, but some of the proposals have been criticised as a default by another name.

WHO ARE THE KEY PLAYERS?

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou last week reshuffled his government to quell dissent in his ruling Socialist party and gave the finance portfolio to Evangelos Venizelos, a party rival. Venizelos is a political heavyweight who ran the preparations for the 2004 Athens Olympics, but has no economic track record.

At the European level, the single most influential figure is German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as head of the EU's biggest economy. Merkel, who is losing popularity and has suffered a string of 1defeats in state elections, is under intense pressure from a German public that resents footing the bill for what is widely seen as Greek profligacy -- hence her insistence that banks should share some of the pain. Merkel has been accused of holding up the second Greek aid package, further eroding investor confidence which could make the bailout more expensive.

WHAT ABOUT THE GREEK PEOPLE?

Public disgruntlement over austerity -- including curbs on widespread early retirement, tax rises and cuts in benefits and wages -- has erupted into frequent strikes and protests, some of them violent. Unemployment is rising. In a poll last month, 80 percent of people said they refused to make any more sacrifices to get more EU/IMF aid. Bank and utility workers, public sector contractors and even doctors have taken to the streets. Private sector workers blame the bloated public sector, civil servants blame tax cheats and many Greeks blame corrupt politicians for the country's problems.

"The big problem of Greek society is the tendency to consider somebody else is responsible for everything that goes wrong," said analyst Theodore Couloumbis.

HOW DID IT COME TO THIS?

Greece, whose economy had grown strongly but suffered problems with corruption and bureaucracy, joined the euro zone a decade ago, linking its economy to other European countries.

It went into recession in 2009 after 15 years of growth and its budget deficit hit 15.4 percent of GDP after a series of revisions by the government which revealed the country's economy was in far worse shape than it had previously admitted.

Chronic problems include rampant tax evasion -- the labour minister has estimated a quarter of the economy pays nothing.

More broadly, the Greek crisis reflects an inherent weakness in the euro's structure -- a currency zone with a "one size fits all" interest rate for a set of widely divergent economies, and 17 different countries running their own fiscal policies.

How the crisis plays out will determine the failure or survival of the project.

Source: Reuters