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a layman's approach to break out and break down |
casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #106 Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 8:30 am Post subject: |
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hi aromal,
rbn has formed a doji candle showing indecision among the traders, plz wait for a green candle with good vol to enter the stock
in case of break out, i dont think short term dma will be of use, because it will be lagging behind,
if the bo is happening after a down trend, then some of the dma may hover above, in that case we may need to watch out for resistance, otherwise, break out is generally independent of dma
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casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #107 Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 8:42 am Post subject: |
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hi rashmi,
i hv already posted a chart of mcleodruss, it was unable to form a sym. triangle and came down to support level, now a break down from the support level will make it a descending triangle,
kamat hotel and cosmo films are making ascending triangles and may give good upmove of 20 and 30 rupees respectively
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casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #108 Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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during my intraday trading, i hv seen some of the triangles/ other patterns give nice bo and the stocks actually blast.
but at the same time, some of the patterns, after forming a bo pattern, goes for a prolonged consolidation
i hv tried to answer the prb with verifying patterns wid higher tf charts and the results are more or less satisfactory
but it would be of more help if we could distinguish the "false bo' from the "true' one, i mean wid the help of indicators, if we could get some sort of signals about the validity of the pattern, then the whole thing would become more dependable,
as of now, we dont have much option barring the volume, which should increase during a true bo, but then,the vol will increase wid the bo, so we are going to miss a considerable chunk of profit when we are going to be confirmed by the vol, still its better to be confirmed than getting stuck in consolidation
but i hope, if there were any indicator which could tell us in advance .
after a prolonged internet search and application, i have seen nothing is working, no indicator is ready to talk wid us abt the bo.
but after a series of trial and error method, i found some body is talking. its fast%d and fast %k.
they are talking in their language and the duty to interpret in our language lies on us,
as far as eod data back testing and intraday data are concerned,(both trading and back testing) i some how managed to understand whats going to happen, but its a huge subject, a conclusion cant be drawn so easily,
we need to verify it in various tf and need to derive an actual relation, if we succeed in this quest,then we will be more confident to trade the bo,
and if we fail, we will start working to find out another way,
so i will post my findings in this regard from the intraday charts in real time (as they appear to me during trading) and will try to establish the possible linkage
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ragarwal Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Nov 2008 Posts: 582
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Post: #109 Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 1:48 pm Post subject: |
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thnks casper fr ur patient amswers.plz post me wat u cn make of gspl.is it gud to hold fr a year?
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newinvestor White Belt
Joined: 16 Feb 2010 Posts: 120
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Post: #110 Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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Hi Casper.
What do you think of Core Projects above 310 and Voltas above 260.
From a 3 yr chart, I think these are life time high levels.
Volume for Core also looks OK. Voltas volume not picked up.
Pls comment
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casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #111 Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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hi rashmi,
to say abt an year for gspl is tough for me as it has not shown any long term pattern yet, and already crossed its all time high, hence, there is no price reference for us. so to know about one year target, we need to see its fundamentals, but as long as it forms higher high and higher low, we can say its in up trend, so we can hold it until it makes a lower low or a lower high.
hi newinvestor,
the all time high of core project is 450 and 310 is going to be the toughest resistance, it shoild be broken out wid increased vol and then add a 3% filter, so our confirmation point should be 310+10=320, so if it reaches 320 wid increased vol, then we may see 450 in short to mid term
same , voltas has all time high at 267, so to be safe, we may have to wait up to 275 with an increased vol to reach for 350 in mid term
generally speaking, most of the scrips, after clearing an all time high, tends to consolidate before resuming fresh up move.
off course there are exceptions, but exceptional stocks are those who have strong fundamental reasons like sbi. that's why i recommended u to use the filter to see if there is any demand for the stock or the participants are not at home with the higher price,if they feel its too extended,then the will bring down the stock price for sure.
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leo15175 White Belt
Joined: 12 Sep 2010 Posts: 9
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Post: #112 Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 12:42 pm Post subject: Nonsense discussion |
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Seem to be lot of non sense idiotic discussion all the way.
I am sure not single person making profit in market with that nonsense chat.
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casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #113 Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:12 pm Post subject: |
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WHAT TO SAY? I MYSELF DON'T KNOW IF ANY BODY IS GETTING ANY BENEFIT FROM MY IDIOTIC DISCUSSION.
I AM DEPENDING ON THE PERSONS THOSE WHO FOLLOW THIS THREAD TO ANSWER THE QUESTION OF PROFIT/BENEFIT FROM THIS THREAD!!!
IF MY LEARNED FRIEND LEO15175 IS CORRECT WITH HIS ASSUMPTION, THEN I WILL BE MORE THAN HAPPY TO STOP HERE AS POSTING HERE AND REPLYING MY FELLOW BROTHERS/SISTERS TAKES LOTS OF TIME AND EFFORT FROM MY SIDE
AND IF AT LEAST ONE PERSON GOT ANY THING FROM MY POSTINGS, THEN I WILL HUMBLY REQUEST MY FRIEND LEO15175 TO LET US (FOOLS) BE HAPPY IN OUR FOOL'S PARADISE.WE WON'T MIND IF NO ANGEL TREAD HERE
THANKS FOR UR TIME
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newinvestor White Belt
Joined: 16 Feb 2010 Posts: 120
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Post: #114 Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: Nonsense discussion |
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leo15175 wrote: | Seem to be lot of non sense idiotic discussion all the way.
I am sure not single person making profit in market with that nonsense chat. |
We are all trying to learn on how to be better traders. Casper's efforts in guidance have been welcome, and I for one feel that I have been able to get exposure to many concepts / ideas in an easy way.
Whether we will make profit or loss will depend to a great deal on our money management and trading psychology.
We would welcome Leo also to post his trading ideas , will help us to learn more.
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leo15175 White Belt
Joined: 12 Sep 2010 Posts: 9
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Post: #115 Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:25 pm Post subject: I hope you get some response |
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I hope at least 1-2 people come and say how much real profit they got from academic discussion of more than 10 pages.
That will be worth your effort casper.
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leo15175 White Belt
Joined: 12 Sep 2010 Posts: 9
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Post: #116 Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:32 pm Post subject: If you want any profit making ideas let me know |
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If you need any profit making ideas in nifty/stock futures/stock options/cash you can ask me in pm.
let me know your capital and risk appetite to decide picks.
Regards
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leo15175 White Belt
Joined: 12 Sep 2010 Posts: 9
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Post: #117 Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:35 pm Post subject: Re: Nonsense discussion |
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newinvestor wrote: | leo15175 wrote: | Seem to be lot of non sense idiotic discussion all the way.
I am sure not single person making profit in market with that nonsense chat. |
We are all trying to learn on how to be better traders. Casper's efforts in guidance have been welcome, and I for one feel that I have been able to get exposure to many concepts / ideas in an easy way.
Whether we will make profit or loss will depend to a great deal on our money management and trading psychology.
We would welcome Leo also to post his trading ideas , will help us to learn more. |
If you need any profit making ideas in nifty/stock futures/stock options/cash .
Ask me in pm.
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drsureshbs White Belt
Joined: 22 Oct 2008 Posts: 58
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Post: #118 Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:46 pm Post subject: Re: Nonsense discussion |
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leo15175 wrote: | Seem to be lot of non sense idiotic discussion all the way.
I am sure not single person making profit in market with that nonsense chat. |
I personally feel casper has come out with some valid points in this thread.It makes sense to say what is sense before brushing some thing as nonsense.Otherwise it becomes mockery of one self .leo pl b fair.I am eager to now what is sense
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vinst Black Belt
Joined: 09 Jan 2007 Posts: 3303
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Post: #119 Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:54 pm Post subject: |
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looks like leo15175 is making messages in several forums with high decibel language to get attention.
Let nobody take it to heart.
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leo15175 White Belt
Joined: 12 Sep 2010 Posts: 9
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Post: #120 Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:55 pm Post subject: Point ,view, think ,feel are nonsense |
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drsureshbs wrote: | leo15175 wrote: | Seem to be lot of non sense idiotic discussion all the way.
I am sure not single person making profit in market with that nonsense chat. |
I personally feel casper has come out with some valid points in this thread.It makes sense to say what is sense before brushing some thing as nonsense.Otherwise it becomes mockery of one self .leo pl b fair.I am eager to now what is sense |
Most important thing is following words has no value in market
points,views,feel,think
what matters in market is only profit.
rest all is nonsense.
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