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a layman's approach to break out and break down
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Author a layman's approach to break out and break down
casper
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Joined: 02 Oct 2010
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Post: #1051   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

chetan83 wrote:
ICICI BANK IS down to 1118, I bought yesterday at 1145...what can be done. Minor support of 1120 is broken.


currently icici is taking support at weekly s1 around 1118

it can reverse from here, we need the current candle to close in oder to access whether it is taking support here


NOW I AM SAYING U VERY STRONGLY, U CAN SAY THAT UR FRIEND, CASPER IS NOW SHOUTING ON U.

I HAVE REPEATEDLY MENTIONED IN MY POST THAT EVERY TIME WE TRADE A BO/BD. THE BREAK OUT/BREAK DOWN LEVEL OF THE SET UP SHOULD BE OUR 1ST STOP LOSS,

WE CAN TRAIL IT LATER BUT THIS SHOULD BE OUR 1ST SL


IN THE ATTACHED PICTURE, PLZ SEE THAT BO LEVEL WAS BROKEN WITH A CANDLE CLOSE WHICH MADE A LOW OF 1140 (MARKED BY DARKER LINE)

U SHOULD HAVE BEEN OUT OF IT BY THEN ONLY


PLZ PLZ PLZ BROTHERS, NOT ONLY U BUT I AM TELLING ALL OF U

A BO/BD MEANS INCREASED VOLATILITY. IT CAN MAKE U GAIN HEAVILY AND IF U DONT STICK TO THE RISK MANAGEMENT RULES . IT WOULD COST U EVEN MORE





WHEN EVER U TRADE A BO/BD, PLZ MAKE THE BO/BD LEVEL AS UR SL LEVEL. ANY CANDLE CLOSE BELOW/ABOVE THIS LEVEL SHOULD BE TREATED AS SOS AND WE NEED TO IMMEDIATELY LEAVE IT



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casper
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Post: #1052   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 11:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sumesh_sol wrote:
chetan83 wrote:
ICICI BANK IS down to 1118, I bought yesterday at 1145...what can be done. Minor support of 1120 is broken.


Hi Chetan,

Everyone should decide on their exit plan in advance,,,, That depends on your holding capacity and risk u r willing to put in...

From a very short term of view if this candle closes below 1125.. better exit... you will always find good trades later...


let us pray that any how it manages to break 1125 to close above it, its monthly piv, tough nut to crack in a blow Sad
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deepakms
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Post: #1053   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Casper,

Great explaning done here buddy......we all watch for BO/BD so closely and try getting into successful trades, the points explained here are not always on our mind...although it was told initially.

This sure helps ALL folks in our forum to be more cautious.

Thank You,
Deeppak
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sumesh_sol
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Post: #1054   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 11:19 am    Post subject: UFLEX Reply with quote

UFLEX
********
Above 212.. we can see 217/223..

(One special note to my day-trader friends,,,, please keep booking on any good upmove , or else u may get trapped, like in UTVSOF I booked 70% at around 584 seeing resistance... ).



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anand1234
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Post: #1055   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi...........sumesh............
I purchased utvsoft @ 581...........still holding...........any s/l?............pls guide me.............

thanks
anand
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sumesh_sol
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Post: #1056   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 11:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

anand1234 wrote:
hi...........sumesh............
I purchased utvsoft @ 581...........still holding...........any s/l?............pls guide me.............

thanks
anand


If u have purchased as day trade, then candle close below 575 , exit.....For delivery keep SL as close below 550...

ANAND, rakha hai yaa nikaal diya..? Smile


Last edited by sumesh_sol on Tue Jan 04, 2011 3:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
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casper
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Post: #1057   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vakran soft

310 is weekly resistance

a break above that can take us to 315-320

a candle close below 310 level after the bo should be our 1st sl



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girishhu1
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Post: #1058   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hello casperji,
enclosing chart of hcltech bo at 463.8 level with vol. kindly confirm
regards,
girish



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casper
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Post: #1059   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

an analysis of ICICI bank as of 4th January 6.20 pm


i was not asked this question, still i am trying to describe how i see icici bank now. if one of my brothers gets trapped as higher as 1150 and still holds icici bank then the situation becomes quite indigestible for me.


icici closed around 1104, being a basic member, my chart is not updated, so i have marked the zone with dark color in the chart

at this level, we see the lower band of the bollinger band and 23% of fib retracement of previous up move stays. so here we expect a good support


the 5 min and 15 min break up of icici data shows a strong positive divergence which may signal for some up move, not a robust move, still some up move, my experience says it can go up to weekly s1


at the same time we have a double top formation at 1150 level which has broken down today,

now joining the fact of support and double top, we can safely assume that if the stock holds 1100 level then can go up to 1120

and if this stock breaks below 1100, we can expect 1050


now, let us think about what may happen tomorrow and how can we tackle the situation


1. suppose it is holding 1100, then with the stop loss of weekly s2 at 1092, we can buy some more to average our existing position and book the total position at weekly s1 at 1120 or monthly pivot at 1125


2. suppose it is broken down from1100 level then we can buy put of 1100 and target 1050 or wherever it stops, in this case we would not close the 1150 buy position we already have


let icici take support, we will sell the put with good profit and buy another lot of icici in future to average our existing position

then we can sell it when it retrace back to 1100-1125 level again in coming days


that is the two possibilities i can see now


at last i would like to say something

sumesh and vishy is service holder, i have a small business, we all remains very busy with our work and our trading also, it is not easy to find set ups and post that everyday. still we do this. just to see some happy faces of our brothers at the end of days. just to have the reason to smile together and enjoy whatever lil bit we can earn from the market this way. we have no intention and practically no reason to advertise ourselves as "experts", all we do is out of our passion for T.A and with a feelings to share whatever we can through this media.

but if any of u take our calls without adhering to proper risk management it can turn the whole thing upside down and ruins our days

because we like to be clear before our inner-selves, so we just cant wash out our hands saying "why he has traded this call? i hav not forced any body!!!! "


so plz, to keep the things going, help us by using stop loss



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Rahulsharmaat
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Post: #1060   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 6:30 pm    Post subject: casper i need your help Reply with quote

please tell me about SBIn n bank nifty prospects-
I am long in Sbin at 2840-- Bank nifty at 11900

Holding position still--

Both break out of 16 day trading range

please reply soon
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girishhu1
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Post: #1061   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hellow casperji,
your sensitivity to others problems is reflected through your analysis of icicic bank analysis. kindly preserve this sensitivity which would definitely help u in future as an individual.
regards
girish
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singh.ravee
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Post: #1062   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 9:26 pm    Post subject: Re: casper i need your help Reply with quote

Rahulsharmaat wrote:
please tell me about SBIn n bank nifty prospects-
I am long in Sbin at 2840-- Bank nifty at 11900

Holding position still--

Both break out of 16 day trading range

please reply soon


casper bhai,
with ur kind anticipated permission, Smile I am posting reply on banknifty. 11900 level of banknifty was close to its fresh high. For 1-3 days perspective, Banknifty is showing a negative bias. 11660- 11700- 11770, if come, can be used to cover ur position as of now. On the downside 11400- 11150- 11000 could be the target. Ppl with long term view can hold with SL= 11000. Any fresh upmove will come above 11950.

ICICI Bank remained hot topic of the day in this thread. Casper's observation in his post in which casper has mentioned time is appropriate.

Like casper i m a small time businessman in ludhiana. Trading is more of a passion for me rather a means of living. The most important lesson that I have learnt is "The smaller the stop loss, the Bigger the success." Everybody has a history of negative trades. Your negative trades are going to drain you, not ur positive trades. U need to minimize ur losses, in order to succeed.

Thanks and Regards
ravee
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vishytns
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Post: #1063   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great Thread.........It is ROCKING. clap2

Make trading your PASSION, as rightly said by Ravee and Casper. Geting into a trade should be done very carefully and with analysis of the stock movement for atleast a day. DONT JUMP into trades and lose your HARD EARNED MONEY. Every minute is an oppurtunity in stock market. IF you are entering trade, you should know where you should book your profits and you should know the risk u can take (stop loss).

RISK MANGAMENT IS MORE IMPORTANT AND COMES AFTER "TECHNICAL ANALYSIS". So please pay attension towards RISK Mangement first and then one can learn techincal analysis.

HAVE safe trading.
Vishy.
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casper
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Post: #1064   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 11:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hiiii


sorry for late



sbin= the stock has made an evening star candle pattern in eod, right now we have strong support around 2700-2688 level on eod basis


we have seen lots of positive divergence in lesser tfs such as 15min or 5 min tf, which can effectively give us some up move, this upmove can take us up to 2750 or max 2780


so if tomorrow sbin hold 2700 then we can buy another lot to avergae the existing position, here sl will be below 2688


but this is tricky


suppose it is not holding the 2700 or 2688 max, then we have to but 2700 puts targeting 2650/2600/2575 range


in that case we will make loss in future but the put option will save us




bank nifty= another missile

it has also made evening star pattern

it has strong support around 11500, if it breakes then no support up to 11000

if 11500 is respected we can average our existing position but with strict sl

or if 11500 is broken then we have to but puts


if some body has enough, i mean it, enough money to use, then he should be able to turn around from this situation also

i am not telling u to do the following, but one can do if he has proper risk management skills


in this situation, be it icicibank/sbin/bnf whatever

if u r making loss with one future position then buy 2 puts and wait to see where the market heads

if it goes lower, then book the put when the stock finds support,(wherever it goes)

then with that profit, buy another future lot when the price starts up moving again


and if after buying the put, stock starts going up, then u r in profit with ur future lots, and for the puts u already bought, its price will go down for sure
so u sell it every day at higher level and book at lower level, but dont give up at once. who know a few days later u may use it again

its easy to say but hard to do

f/o is meant for professional traders only

just i wrote the last strategy for reference only

i am not asking any body to follow it blindly to make another blunder

just if we become a little more careful, then we can avoid all these types of mistakes
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casper
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Post: #1065   PostPosted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 11:19 pm    Post subject: Re: casper i need your help Reply with quote

singh.ravee wrote:
Rahulsharmaat wrote:
please tell me about SBIn n bank nifty prospects-
I am long in Sbin at 2840-- Bank nifty at 11900

Holding position still--

Both break out of 16 day trading range

please reply soon


casper bhai,
with ur kind anticipated permission, Smile I am posting reply on banknifty. 11900 level of banknifty was close to its fresh high. For 1-3 days perspective, Banknifty is showing a negative bias. 11660- 11700- 11770, if come, can be used to cover ur position as of now. On the downside 11400- 11150- 11000 could be the target. Ppl with long term view can hold with SL= 11000. Any fresh upmove will come above 11950.

ICICI Bank remained hot topic of the day in this thread. Casper's observation in his post in which casper has mentioned time is appropriate.

Like casper i m a small time businessman in ludhiana. Trading is more of a passion for me rather a means of living. The most important lesson that I have learnt is "The smaller the stop loss, the Bigger the success." Everybody has a history of negative trades. Your negative trades are going to drain you, not ur positive trades. U need to minimize ur losses, in order to succeed.

Thanks and Regards
ravee



nice job ravee Very Happy
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