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a layman's approach to break out and break down |
casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
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Post: #1516  Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 10:39 am Post subject: |
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| singh.ravee wrote: | casper,
is it a descending triangle in nifty eod.
ravee |
its a dt, but u see rsi is rising, this is a concern for a break down
u know it could make another reaction high then go down and break down or due to fundamental news it can go down heavily, straight from this range
by only these two ways, the rsi rising will be discounted, and only with break down of the dt, we can take position here
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casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
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| Post: #1517 Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 10:48 am Post subject: |
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bhai, dont touch any bank or bnf upto Tues day
i saw these triangles last night, but u know Tues day RBI will announce its policy, so banks will decide its course only after that
now what is happening in banks are purely short covering, its not a true rally at all
if RBI policy goes tough then banks will tank like hell, so wait up to next Wednesday to decide the next move on the banks
( always consider a sudden fundamental move more stronger than technical signals)
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casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
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| Post: #1518 Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 10:55 am Post subject: |
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| singh.ravee wrote: | casper,
is it a symmetrical triangle in tatamotors eod. or is it a bearish pendant.
I dont know about pendants. heard this word in thread only.
kindly comment, with possible tgts and sl.
rgds
ravee |
pennant is neither bullish, nor bearish, its neutral one
if a symmetrical triangle forms over a much shorter time, say with in a week or two, then this symmetrical triangle is known as pennant
like any other triangle , the widest part of the pattern is the rough target, it is to be projected from the break out point
given the bearishness of macd and rsi in eod, i expect it to break down and this move can give us aprox 100 rupees down side
remember, pennant/st is neutral pattern, it can go up also, but only due to macd/rsi in sell mode, i feel the chance of going down is higher
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chetan83
Brown Belt
Joined: 19 Feb 2010
Posts: 2036
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| Post: #1519 Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 10:56 am Post subject: |
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| casper wrote: | | singh.ravee wrote: | casper,
One point i would like to share. I know, i may sound foolish, but if i will not share and rectify on it i will remain foolish throughout my life.
Normally, i try to find trading opportunities in 5 min or 60 min intraday charts. and then decide whether to keep the position open at the end of day. I think its not appropriate.
I think one should try to find trading pattern in eod and according to these patterns should take an entry point in 60min or 5 min tf.
I would like to share tatasteel eod chart. A dark cloud cover pattern emerged at new high in tata steel on 3rd and 4th jan 2011. One should go short in the first candle of 5th jan as per eod chart.
If i look at 60min chart, i dont find good shorting symbol over there. May be somebody else will find. So normally I miss these opportunities and then find tata steel or for that matter any other stock 10% down.
What i am doing is that i m wasting my energy in finding short rides. In this process i miss the bigger rides.
I may sound too confused today, but these are dilemmas of a new trader.
Once these drawbacks are identified, next step is to rectify them and not to repeat the same.
Your valuable comments.
Thanks and Regards
Ravee |
bhai
u could not find a single shorting opportunity in tatasteel
i am giving u two opportunities
1st was at 700 and the second was around 680,which was then monthly pivot
by these two charts i hope, i have proved that the problem was not with 60 min tf?
u know, one has to follow a system religiously, then only one can master it and trade it, its not like venturing all the systems simultaneously
if u have mastered the art of candle stick analysis and wants to trade in that way, then who am i to comment? like that, if i feel comfortable to use 60 min chart for day trading, i hope no body should have any thing to say, becoz at the end of day, nothing succeeds like success and whether my system is okey or not, is clearly evident in this thread,
i dont need any body's certificate to know about my system
but one thing i can tell u for sure, this thread is dedicated to break out break down ideas, mostly in eod and 60 min charts, i put my effort in this system and when i was a fresher, no body helped me with a tinka also
Those horrific days still hunts me, that why i never fell short to reply ANY of urs query related with any topics ( i am not telling u only, i include every reader)
but at the end of days, its essentially a break out break down thread considering only eod or 60 min chart
we have no shortage of analytical styles in this vast world of t.a. if some body finds success in other way, he is at his liberty to do that, i am not going to drop my comment on his method bcoz i am not a jack of all trades, at the same, i do expect that peoples would have that much courtesy not to put there ideas on my systems without taking time to follow it
and at the end of every thing, i will once tell u, i have lots of better things to do than joining a comment war, so i hope no more controversy should prevail on this |
Hi all,
Only thing I would like to tell all of you, here in this forum is that we are here to learn and put question on How & Why? All the strategies given by any thread owner is unique and has a different approach. They are here to guide us, as rightly identified by Casper, it take lot of courage to come up with a strategy and prove it.
I would like to share a story today, I guess it would help all;
ALEXANDER - The Great's - Last 3 Wishes
Alexander, after conquering many kingdoms, was returning home. On the way, he fell ill and it took him to his death bed. With death staring him in his face, Alexander realized how his conquests,his great army, his sharp sword and all his wealth were of no consequence.
He now longed to reach home to see his mother's face and bid her his last adieu. But, he had to accept the fact that his sinking health would not permit him to reach his distant homeland.
So, the mighty conqueror lay prostrate and pale, helplessly waiting to breathe his last. He called his generals and said, "I will depart from this world soon, I have three wishes, please carry them out without fail."
With tears flowing down their cheeks, the generals agreed to abide by their king's last wishes.
1) "My first desire is that", said Alexander, "My physicians alone must" carry my coffin."
2) After a pause, he continued, "Secondly, I desire that when my coffin is being carried to the grave, the path leading to the graveyard be strewn with gold, silver and precious stones which I have collected in my treasury".
3) The king felt exhausted after saying this. He took a minute's rest and continued. "My third and last wish is that both my hands be kept dangling out of my coffin".
The people who had gathered there wondered at the king's strange wishes. But no one dared bring the question to their lips.. Alexander's favorite general kissed his hand and pressed them to his heart.
"O king, we assure you that all your wishes will be fulfilled. But tell us why do you make such strange wishes?"
At this Alexander took a deep breath and said:
"I would like the world to know of the three lessons I have just learnt.
Lessons to be learnt from last 3 wishes of King Alexander...
I want my physicians to carry my coffin because people should realize that no doctor on this earth can really cure any body. They are powerless and cannot save a person from the clutches of death.
So let not people take life for granted.
The second wish of strewing gold, silver and other riches on the path to the graveyard is to tell People that not even a fraction of gold will come with me. I spent all my life Greed of Power, earning riches but cannot take anything with me.
Let people realize that it is a sheer waste of time to chase wealth.
And about my third wish of having my hands dangling out of the coffin, I wish people to know that I came empty handed into this world and empty handed I go out of this world".
With these words, the king closed his eyes.
Soon he let death conquer him and breathed his last. . . .
LESSON TO LEARN:
Remember, your Health is in your own hands, look after it.
Wealth is only meaningful if you can share and also enjoy
while you are still alive, kicking & healthy.
What you do for yourself, dies with you.
But what you do for others will live for ever.
Leave the “Legacy” behind.
Regards,
Chetan.
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singh.ravee
Yellow Belt
Joined: 12 Aug 2010
Posts: 678
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| Post: #1520 Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 11:15 am Post subject: |
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casper bhai,
thank u so much for all ur prompt replies.
You are doing a great job of dissemination of technical information and newbies like me are learning a lot from you.
rgds
ravee
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casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
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| Post: #1521 Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 11:37 am Post subject: |
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| singh.ravee wrote: | casper bhai,
thank u so much for all ur prompt replies.
You are doing a great job of dissemination of technical information and newbies like me are learning a lot from you.
rgds
ravee |
bhai
i am sharing a secrete with u, which i follow for my practice,u know about ur strategy now,
1.make a back testing to see if it worthy or not, dont take any bodies word, forget me, even dont take Steve nison or Murphy seriously until u have proof to support their findings
once u r done, now u r ready to take paper trades
2. i use forex chart at night to test my findings and paper trade also
u will have lots of forex free real time chart on the net, these are not as good as ichart, but for paper trades they are quite good, im sorry i cant name some website here due to rules
but u can find them if u search on Google
forex has a good liquidly just like any GOOd stock or even like nifty and if u use forex chart then u can test it in evening or night when our market is closed so u dont have to spare trading for the sake of paper trade testing of ur new theory
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ridinghood
Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Apr 2009
Posts: 724
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| Post: #1522 Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 3:03 pm Post subject: |
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hi casper,
how r u? any update for ranbaxy? specially from the expiry point of view.
regs
ridinghood
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casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
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| Post: #1523 Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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| ridinghood wrote: | hi casper,
how r u? any update for ranbaxy? specially from the expiry point of view.
regs
ridinghood |
hi brother,
in eod chart it formed a bullish gravestone dozi/inverted hammer near the monthly support
it looks like we can buy with a sl below monthly support by closing to target monthly pivot at 580
but given the RBI policy due on Tues day, i am a little reluctant to take delivery at this stage, i feel this policy is going to be the trend decider for the near term market
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sumesh_sol
Brown Belt
Joined: 06 Jun 2010
Posts: 2344
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| Post: #1524 Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 12:35 pm Post subject: RANBAXY (60 tf..) |
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Hi friends,,,
It is difficult to keep away from challenging mkt, but office engagement are forcing me to devote little possible time in market...
Ranbaxy looking like making AT and break above 566 can take it to 572/579 ... (Though weekly pivot is at 567-568, but I feel it will be taken out...)
-Sumesh
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singh.ravee
Yellow Belt
Joined: 12 Aug 2010
Posts: 678
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| Post: #1525 Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 1:21 pm Post subject: |
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sumesh,
just add 50ema or 35 ema to your chart. u may see a price rejection coming in. 570 is a good resistance. right now it seems to be a candidate of short side. i think long position can be opened only above 580.
rgds
ravee
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ridinghood
Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Apr 2009
Posts: 724
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| Post: #1526 Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 2:29 pm Post subject: |
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hi casper nd sumesh
thnx alot for ur guidance
regs
ridinghood
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singh.ravee
Yellow Belt
Joined: 12 Aug 2010
Posts: 678
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| Post: #1527 Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 9:17 pm Post subject: |
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casper hello,
isn't it a high vol breakout in icici bank double bottom.
Also bank nifty has 3 advancing white soldier pattern in eod.
I feel that banking as a sector will jump upward after rbi policy.
Your comments please on both.
thanks and regards
ravee
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vishytns
White Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2009
Posts: 206
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| Post: #1528 Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 9:29 pm Post subject: |
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All,
After casper himself was down by fever, now his PC is down with fever  (VIRUS Attack, i was not sure what he was analyzing). His PC is under medication and should be ready by thursday. We all will be missng his calls/teaching on tuesday.
Vishy
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singh.ravee
Yellow Belt
Joined: 12 Aug 2010
Posts: 678
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| Post: #1529 Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 10:12 pm Post subject: |
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| thanks vishy for keeping us informed.
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singh.ravee
Yellow Belt
Joined: 12 Aug 2010
Posts: 678
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| Post: #1530 Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 11:48 am Post subject: |
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casper
is it a symmetrical triangle still under construction in reliance 60min.
need to watch breakout.
thanks and regards
ravee
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