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a layman's approach to break out and break down |
casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #1981 Posted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 10:24 am Post subject: |
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ESNMURTY wrote: | Dear Casper, Can I enter Mphasis at these levels and what could be the stoploss and the prob target |
no particular pattern is there
if i am to trade it, i will trade it in 5 min tf
i will wait for it to come down at 34 ema and buy with a sl below 89 ema
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ESNMURTY White Belt
Joined: 31 Oct 2009 Posts: 380
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Post: #1982 Posted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 10:26 am Post subject: |
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Thanks , Casper
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casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #1983 Posted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 10:33 am Post subject: |
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ESNMURTY wrote: | Thanks , Casper |
nifty is falling, be care full
wait for nifty to find its base 1st then think long for intra, dont go against the trend
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singh.ravee Yellow Belt
Joined: 12 Aug 2010 Posts: 678
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Post: #1984 Posted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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casper
is it a dt in bharti artl 15min
thanks and regards
ravee
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casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #1985 Posted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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singh.ravee wrote: | casper
is it a dt in bharti artl 15min
thanks and regards
ravee |
yes its proper dt
but monthly piv and ema are supporting, so very remote chance of breaking down as these are strongest support
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capsi White Belt
Joined: 04 Dec 2010 Posts: 18
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Post: #1986 Posted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 1:15 pm Post subject: |
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hi casper
yes, our ids r quite similar and if i'm not wrong u r from Calcutta, me too.
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casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #1987 Posted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 1:18 pm Post subject: |
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capsi wrote: | hi casper
yes, our ids r quite similar and if i'm not wrong u r from Calcutta, me too. |
hii im tushar
aapni???
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capsi White Belt
Joined: 04 Dec 2010 Posts: 18
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Post: #1988 Posted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 1:24 pm Post subject: |
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aami srikanta
arr tumi thik ache, apni-ta barabari hoye jabe!
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ridinghood Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Apr 2009 Posts: 724
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Post: #1989 Posted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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Hi casper brother
again bothering u with ranbaxy.how does it look now with results on 22/02 and fno expiry close by?
thnx in advance
regs
ridinghood
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casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #1990 Posted: Fri Feb 18, 2011 8:35 pm Post subject: |
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ridinghood wrote: | Hi casper brother
again bothering u with ranbaxy.how does it look now with results on 22/02 and fno expiry close by?
thnx in advance
regs
ridinghood |
hii brother
sorry was busy as usual so late as usual too
look at the chart i am posting, it looks like a h/s in formation where the weekly piv at 505 is the neckline
if we fall below 505 then 480 is likely stop
but if some how we manage to close a 60 min candle above 513 (monthly s1 level) then 531 is likely
but i feel, going down below 505 is more likely
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drsureshbs White Belt
Joined: 22 Oct 2008 Posts: 58
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Post: #1991 Posted: Sat Feb 19, 2011 12:34 am Post subject: |
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Dear casper thanks for ur reply.
regards
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ragarwal Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Nov 2008 Posts: 582
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Post: #1992 Posted: Sat Feb 19, 2011 1:15 am Post subject: |
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dear casper,thnx fr ur reply
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casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #1993 Posted: Sat Feb 19, 2011 9:26 am Post subject: |
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welcome rashmi and drsureshsbs!!
hii technocalls
i remember i borrowed some time from u in the early part of this week, so i am paying u back now,
here is ur 1st installment.... Broadening Top
what is in the chart?
in chart we will see that a series of higher highs and same or lower low, all highs are with good volume and its coming down to form same or lower low with less volume, sounds like pretty uptrend
but the same or lower low (mind u, no higher low at all!!) will be annoying to an experienced trader
the total pattern will look like a horn of a gramophone/megaphone hence the name is derived
when happens in reality
in reality, we will see this pattern mostly during late or extreme bull phase, when best investors are out to vacation with the money they already earned, experienced traders are planning to start shorting and peoples like me and u are planning to make fresh investments!!!
what happens during this phase?
u know ever body has his definition of things? even i have my definition of uptrend.
the phase of the market, when the most idiot guys like me will regard themselves as a super investors, is the true uptrend for me!!!
so what is happening? a folk of fools, without any idea of what does the term stock market means, are jumping in the market, with too anxious mind, they have to buy now!! they must buy now!!! its a sort of panic buy, as if they could not buy now, they will miss all the bull run, is going on in the market
this is the reason of making higher highs but as this buying is neither supported by fundamentals nor by technicals, so that will not provide the higher lows, which are also an important signal of a true uptrend
but the self proclaimed super investors are not bothered at all by the fact, some Micky mouse in TV is saying buy more, we will see 7000 in nifty and all of the peoples in the market are too wise traders..... who bothers about such silly things like technicals??
what happens at the final top?
price reached the final top with some euphoria buying by small time peoples, then after hitting the upper trend line,starts declining, initially with less volume as peoples are still in buying mood and professionals are still out of market
then price reaches the support line and this time it declines, volume surged like a high tide, a heavy, deadly painful fall comes, ending the uptrend for now
target projection and trading idea
first of all, whenever u find this pattern and some what get a confirmation, stay away from all the investments u have, its the time for profit booking for u.if it is developed, market is almost sure to react
the fall will come as per the time frame where u got the pattern
(u might remember, for a few days i was shouting that we have broadening tops in real time charts, being in lesser tf, fall is not that cruel so far, but we have a fall, which, i still believe is the end of this pull back for some time, only some good fundamental news can give us some reason to surge ahead or else.......)
according to me, the best idea is to short below the support break down and keep a sl above the broken support level
though its tough to project a target as its developed over some mad buying, still u can project the width of the pattern for an approximate target
below are a few charts, which vishy and me found out as early as early October, in that time, every one was in buying spree, but i think, only we two mads were planning to start shorting once it breaks the support levels
these are past charts,showing u as and when we found them, u can easily find out what happened next, bcoz the result is the history now
so this was ur BT, now give me some time plz, i will repay u that rising/falling wedge soon
any more question?? u r welcome as always
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prasenjit White Belt
Joined: 31 Dec 2010 Posts: 59
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Post: #1994 Posted: Sat Feb 19, 2011 12:23 pm Post subject: |
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Dada, nifty ki abar nije jabe naki......breakdown next week after friday fall......
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vishytns White Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2009 Posts: 206
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Post: #1995 Posted: Sat Feb 19, 2011 1:24 pm Post subject: |
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Dada, prince of calcutta....
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