|
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
a layman's approach to break out and break down |
chrome
Yellow Belt
Joined: 28 Dec 2009
Posts: 645
|
Post: #2026  Posted: Thu Feb 24, 2011 10:15 pm Post subject: Re: Indiavix v/s Nifty |
 |
|
[quote="casper"] | drjinwala wrote: | | drjinwala wrote: | | I think nifty will go down as indiavix Volatality index is heading up Nifty will tumble down. Be carefull. |
Seen bloodbath in Nifty? Nifty down 146 points. |
congratualtion for prediction and thanks for the chart
a foolish question..... what is the relation of vix with nifty? will
volatility index is mirror for the bottoms n tops of the markets.....if someone is so predictable for bottoms n tops of vix, he/she can easily grasp his/her trades on profitable sides by trading in nifty....
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|
| |
casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
|
| Post: #2027 Posted: Thu Feb 24, 2011 10:28 pm Post subject: Re: Indiavix v/s Nifty |
|
|
[quote="chrome"] | casper wrote: | | drjinwala wrote: | | drjinwala wrote: | | I think nifty will go down as indiavix Volatality index is heading up Nifty will tumble down. Be carefull. |
Seen bloodbath in Nifty? Nifty down 146 points. |
congratualtion for prediction and thanks for the chart
a foolish question..... what is the relation of vix with nifty? will
volatility index is mirror for the bottoms n tops of the markets.....if someone is so predictable for bottoms n tops of vix, he/she can easily grasp his/her trades on profitable sides by trading in nifty.... |
thanks for ur input chrome sir
but vix is volatility index which goes up or down by measuring the traders mentality
hence its not a advance indicator, so predicting any thing only for vix rating itself and not looking at charts is a lil crazy way in my view
that why i put this question
i just wanted to know from the fellow that as in case of a bearish pattern like descending triangle or h/s which gives us a negative break almost every time, does a high vix should be used for this only?
in other word,
can vix chart replace the chart patterns?
as for the fall, we have bearish sign from long back and i myself was posting the same form last sunday indicating a 150 pts fall below 5400
but i had chart pattern to measure a target and my question is - if only vix can be used instead of chart patterns?
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
drjinwala
White Belt
Joined: 13 Feb 2010
Posts: 3
|
| Post: #2028 Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 7:09 am Post subject: Re: Indiavix v/s Nifty |
|
|
| casper wrote: | | drjinwala wrote: | | drjinwala wrote: | | I think nifty will go down as indiavix Volatality index is heading up Nifty will tumble down. Be carefull. |
Seen bloodbath in Nifty? Nifty down 146 points. |
congratualtion for prediction and thanks for the chart
a foolish question..... what is the relation of vix with nifty? will it go up before market fall or will it go up simultaneously with market fall?
if it moves in tandem (in opposite direction) with nifty then how a prediction can be made with it accurately?
hope u will kindly explain it |
Sir, Not a single indicator in alone is useful but combination of various indicators are useful for further prediction. Vix indicator shows fear factor. Rising vix from 22 to 28 level shows fear factor.
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
|
| Post: #2029 Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 7:54 am Post subject: Re: Indiavix v/s Nifty |
|
|
| drjinwala wrote: |
Sir, Not a single indicator in alone is useful but combination of various indicators are useful for further prediction. Vix indicator shows fear factor. Rising vix from 22 to 28 level shows fear factor. |
yes sir, i just wanted this statement from u
we have to see the total situation before concluding and depending only on a single parameter may confuse us too
u know this thread is followed by so many peoples mostly freshers, so whenever i write here, i try to make things simple, now if they see a post stating nifty has gone down only due to vix, they will be confused and next time they will loose money
so, to make the thing clear, i asked u those questions, hope u will understand this,
u have done a great job by mentioning the vix aspects, plz keep it up
thanks and regards
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
anand1234
Yellow Belt
Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 830
|
| Post: #2030 Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 11:29 am Post subject: |
|
|
hi............casper
to day is rail buget..........wt u think abt titagarh wagon now @388.............it may go up further??............pls comments on this
thanks
anand
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
|
| Post: #2031 Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 11:45 am Post subject: |
|
|
| anand1234 wrote: | hi............casper
to day is rail buget..........wt u think abt titagarh wagon now @388.............it may go up further??............pls comments on this
thanks
anand |
today is like the d-day for railway stocks, any quota/order/incentive increase and decrease will effect heavily today, so personally i will tell u to keep away from twl, stone india, graphite, kalindi and other railways stocks, technicals wont help today
its real time chart is not covered by ichart, as per Google chart, it shows bearish rsi , which can lead to a fall below 387
but, u see, any good/bad news will change its course
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
anand1234
Yellow Belt
Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 830
|
| Post: #2032 Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 11:48 am Post subject: |
|
|
hi...........casper
thanks for ur comments
thanks
anand
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Ravi_S
Yellow Belt
Joined: 15 Jun 2009
Posts: 569
|
| Post: #2033 Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 12:23 pm Post subject: DT in NF 5 mins... |
|
|
| DT in NF 5 mins...
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rohit44
White Belt
Joined: 05 Jan 2010
Posts: 279
|
| Post: #2034 Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:48 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Dear casper,finally hindalco breaks 201 after being rangebound for so long in 200/220 area and went to 195odd level and closed at 200.05.....what will be the action, any tgts upside or downside...which will be the favourable position...plz advise...
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
|
| Post: #2035 Posted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 2:05 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| rohit44 wrote: | | Dear casper,finally hindalco breaks 201 after being rangebound for so long in 200/220 area and went to 195odd level and closed at 200.05.....what will be the action, any tgts upside or downside...which will be the favourable position...plz advise... |
monday will be a day when all rules will be written afresh, old rules will be revised...... predicting some thing for monday is beyond my capacity
in general, 197 and 190 will act as tremendous support and going above 213 is tough as of now
but, as i said, lets see what PRANAB BABU does on monday morning
i am planning to enjoy the budget speech over a cup of tea here
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rohit44
White Belt
Joined: 05 Jan 2010
Posts: 279
|
| Post: #2036 Posted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 2:14 am Post subject: |
|
|
| haha casper bro, will adapt the same technique of enjoying the budet with a sip of tea.....anyways thks for your reply...Rgds
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ridinghood
Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Apr 2009
Posts: 724
|
| Post: #2037 Posted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 7:38 pm Post subject: |
|
|
DEAR CASPER
RANBAXY gave huge profit in feb falling all the way from 548 to 429 a fall of staggering 22% using ur guidance. thanx alot brother!
now could u pl give ur fresh update for it?
thanking u in anticipation
regs
ridinghood
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
prasenjit
White Belt
Joined: 31 Dec 2010
Posts: 59
|
| Post: #2038 Posted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 8:08 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| dear Casperda, kichu idea dao nifty kon dike jabe.....
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
|
| Post: #2039 Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2011 8:07 am Post subject: |
|
|
| ridinghood wrote: | DEAR CASPER
RANBAXY gave huge profit in feb falling all the way from 548 to 429 a fall of staggering 22% using ur guidance. thanx alot brother!
now could u pl give ur fresh update for it?
thanking u in anticipation
regs
ridinghood |
hi brother, nice to know it gave u good moves, u know, being day trader, i look for positional aspects of a stock only when any of u ask me, so have not checked ranbaxy for a long time
ok as of now, rsi in daily chart is heavily over-sold and stock has reached its one of the crucial support which is around 430, we have trend lines here
so we can expect a bounce back from here
if it bounces back from here, i think 465-470 range should be target, and we can buy it with a sl below 430, may be around 425 in hourly chart
(no sign of bounce back as of now in the chart, just expecting it for the following reason
1. rsi OS
2. confluence of trend lines
3. global situation is strengthening, specially, crude is a lil down)
in case it breaks below 425 and stays there, i think 417 and even lower, 395 should be our stop
but due to rsi is oversold, a pull back, may be minor one, is likely
| Description: |
|
| Filesize: |
16.97 KB |
| Viewed: |
244 Time(s) |
|
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
|
| Post: #2040 Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2011 8:21 am Post subject: |
|
|
| prasenjit wrote: | | dear Casperda, kichu idea dao nifty kon dike jabe..... |
hii prasenjit
yesterday was budget and in market, the day was a dozi one, (neutral day, open and close is same), so i really dont know which way market is planning to go, our problem is crude, if crude rises, govt hv to rise fuel price, which will increase inflation, if inflation rises,rbi will increase the rates, if rate rises companies would have to pay more for their borrowings, which will result in market fall. so u can see, a chain reaction here
now the good news is crude is falling as of now, so we can expect a pull back in nifty
by da way, why crude is rising??
simply bcoz, gaddafi dear is killing his own peoples, so if he starts killing again, crude will go up and all our calculations will be in vein
now in such a situation, lets see what chart says
we have strong resi around 5355-5365, if we dont cross it then better not expect any pull back, above it, we have 5405-5420 also, above which, we can expect a good up move
in case we break below 5305, we will hv another 100-150 pts down fall, at least in theory, due to the chart i am attaching with this post
| Description: |
|
| Filesize: |
11.24 KB |
| Viewed: |
844 Time(s) |
|
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You can attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
