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a layman's approach to break out and break down
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Author a layman's approach to break out and break down
sumesh_sol
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Post: #2536   PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 10:33 am    Post subject: HCLTECH Reply with quote

HCLTECH ..30tf
**********
Above 501 , I expect it to reach 505/510.



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anand1234
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Post: #2537   PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

HI..........CASPER/SUMESH

can u tell me abt timken...........now 208............. I bought @212..........pls tell me wt will b the tgt sor short term??.any s/l is req??

thanks
anand
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casper
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Post: #2538   PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

timken

today if it breaks below 204 and closes below that then leave it

otherwise u will get back ur price and may be a few rupees more

if it holds 204 and goes up today (it has no real time chart so cant say what's happening) then u can target 225-230 in short term

ps. forgot to add the chart here, see price made high, rsi made low, a clear -div, thats why it came down from 210+ levels, now if 204 holds then we can discount the div issue for now and go high afresh



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anand1234
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Post: #2539   PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

casper wrote:
timken

today if it breaks below 204 and closes below that then leave it

otherwise u will get back ur price and may be a few rupees more

if it holds 204 and goes up today (it has no real time chart so cant say what's happening) then u can target 225-230 in short term

ps. forgot to add the chart here, see price made high, rsi made low, a clear -div, thats why it came down from 210+ levels, now if 204 holds then we can discount the div issue for now and go high afresh


hi....casper

thanks a lot for ur comments..................now a days u r not posting ur analisys.................if poss pls keep posting...............it is helping us to trading..............

thanks
anand
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casper
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Post: #2540   PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 8:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi anaand dada

though i was busy wid our website and had a few other smaller issues Very Happy but i do acknowledge that staying away from forum was a foolish decision from my side

i am emotional guy out of my trading room (certainly not in my trading room 24 )

and its true that i am emotionally attached with all of u, so from now on, i will try my best to be available in forum everyday
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S.S.
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Post: #2541   PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dada u had asked a question i will try to answer it
why price reverse?
price movement mainly depends on supply and demand buyer want to buy and seller don’t want to sell so the stock is in short supply - prices increase. buyers will pay more for it and when the stock is abundance the price fall. seller want to sell at any rate and buyer try to get it cheaper. so price reveres

now I like to add further whats makes buyer to buy the stock? there are plenty. inflation, interest rates, gov policies, political situation, growth stories, taxes, comp. managements, co’s future projection and many more …….

when some of the factors are positive rather say favorable people keep buying the stock and when it turns negative they starts selling n price reveres.

thats it dada.....
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casper
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Post: #2542   PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 10:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

S.S. wrote:
dada u had asked a question i will try to answer it
why price reverse?
price movement mainly depends on supply and demand buyer want to buy and seller don’t want to sell so the stock is in short supply - prices increase. buyers will pay more for it and when the stock is abundance the price fall. seller want to sell at any rate and buyer try to get it cheaper. so price reveres

now I like to add further whats makes buyer to buy the stock? there are plenty. inflation, interest rates, gov policies, political situation, growth stories, taxes, comp. managements, co’s future projection and many more …….

when some of the factors are positive rather say favorable people keep buying the stock and when it turns negative they starts selling n price reveres.

thats it dada.....



right soumik, this is the "fundamental" or "reason" part, and well explained by u too

but all these factors, works lately

just seeing a chart can u tell me when the price will reverse? just think about it

when we see charts, we generally discount every thing else, just thik about some "chartists terms"

where a price upmove should stop? i know u already know it, just take it easy and think

where a price should stop?

(sorry for creating suspense)

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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jjm
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Post: #2543   PostPosted: Sat May 07, 2011 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear Casperda/ Singhji,

In case of wipro backthrust already done?? last daily candle touched NL..

Lupin i think a good bet it is very close to Nl hence SL can be really small I will prefer to put 425 CC basis 60 tf

Regards,

JJM



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casper
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Post: #2544   PostPosted: Sun May 08, 2011 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi jjm

1.lupin

we can not call it a h/s becoz left shoulder is at 425 and right shoulder is at 435, to qualify as a true h/s we need symmetry between both the shoulders,(mind u, symmetry, means visual symmetry, not equal hight)

however it has broken an important support and next support is at 413, below which it should go down upto 409,404 levels, so its a good bet downward ofcourse


2.wipro i think it was a slopped (less bearish) h/s which broken down and made its back thrust also

and now it should head down, 430 is going to be a tough support level, below which 410 is possible

(by da way, have u noticed that during back thrust, it went up beyond neck line and faced 34ema in eod? this was the best shorting chance, say 50%-25% short cud be made around this level with strict sl of 34ema + some cushion and more short could be initiated below neckline)
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jjm
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Post: #2545   PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2011 3:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear Casperda,

Lupin: noted comments...

Wipro : I did notice that back thrust to 34 ema ..will keep those things in mind while tracking stocks.. Pt of entry suggested was really appropriate with best R: R

Smile

JJM
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jjm
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Post: #2546   PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2011 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Casperda Hi

For your kind perusals

Regards,

JJM



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singh.ravee
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Post: #2547   PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2011 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jjm
kindly have a look at this. i m viewing infy in this way. current move seems more of a throwbacks to this long term trendline as resistance
casper bhai, the height of right shoulder is a bit concern, thats why i am not treating it as hns
rgds
ravee



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casper
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Post: #2548   PostPosted: Mon May 09, 2011 10:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hii jjm and paaji

here is the weekly chart of infy

i think both the chart u posted, are valid, though right shoulder is abnormally high, still it has the essence of h/s (as head part is very prominent, and the volume is also following the classic route- classic volume for a h/s is- left shoulder higher vol, head vol is a lil lower than left shoulder and right shoulder should have the least vol, its following the same)

again the chart jjm posted, which is a slopped down h/s(more bearish)

so in order to avoid confusion, i have switched to the weekly chart Very Happy

its also a h/s (specially if u take the upper shadow of left shoulder than symmetry is also there)and being higher tf, it will give us robust signal, and here we can see the break down from neckline had taken place with a gap, thanks to mr.mohandas pai Very Happy
a gap fill up move is expected, and if it does then paaji's long term tl will be the last hurdle for bull and last ray of hope for bear, downside 2600 aprx is destination Very Happy Very Happy


as far as jjm's chart, (short to mid term view) yes, below 2825,2775 to 2750 is target on short to mid term (target given depending on my favorite monthly pivots)

and finally my intra to btst view

2900 is monthly pivot, if it stays below it short it with a target of 2850-2825



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S.S.
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Post: #2549   PostPosted: Tue May 10, 2011 12:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

casper wrote:

when we see charts, we generally discount every thing else, just thik about some "chartists terms"where a price upmove should stop? i know u already know it, just take it easy and think

where a price should stop?

(sorry for creating suspense)

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


Where the price should stop?

i will try to answer it …. i normally see cross over(negative) of EMA, Fibona. Retrace. levels, day/month res pivot, rsi over bought, or any –ve pattern like bearish engulfing, eve star etc. if i found any of it i stop buying it. . .

Now once again back to coal India is it a b o in coal???
I can see b o in both trendline price and rsi

plz answer both the questin if u need time for first one take ur own time but let me know the the correct method .....



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S.S.
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Post: #2550   PostPosted: Tue May 10, 2011 12:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

what do u say abt abb???


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