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a layman's approach to break out and break down |
casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
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Post: #2551  Posted: Tue May 10, 2011 7:44 am Post subject: |
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1.coal india
looks like it is breaking out, but the pattern is a channel. which is my least favorite ,coz it is the slowest of all bo/bd set ups, so i am not very excited about it
channel break outs, in most cases, tends to comeback within the channel,in weekly chart, it has formed a sort of at, target should be around 400
already 393 done, so if we wait for weekly candle close, we will have nothing left for us, but channel bo is something, which makes me uneasy every time
as a general rule, i would say, buy it above outer tl with a sl of outer tl +3 rupees, but in this case, monthly r1 is 394,so i cant expect a smooth upmove here, so from pure technical perspective, i would suggest u to avoid it if u r considering it as a "trade"
however, if u r looking for an "investment" or any fundamental development is underway, then u can go for it
2.abb
clear case of "A" grade div, below 870 my target will be 850-840 at least
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sumesh_sol
Brown Belt
Joined: 06 Jun 2010
Posts: 2344
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| Post: #2552 Posted: Fri May 13, 2011 12:35 pm Post subject: BPCL |
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BPCL
*********
CLOSED on 5tf above 658 !!
can go upto 662/665
SL (656) close on 5tf
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casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
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| Post: #2553 Posted: Sat May 14, 2011 8:25 pm Post subject: |
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| S.S. wrote: | great work dada
bang  once again hatssss offffff to u . . . . i thing i have to buy hats in dozen
ok i want to ask u when there is divergence how to calculate target n 2nd thing abt coal i m posting the chart where i had dawn a div line n rectangle. can we say that the rect part was the result of -div? |
hi s.s
as u want to buy hats in dozens i wish if i had a preset msg saying "sorry for late reply"  i have made ur question bold, this is what u asked me and in its response, i had asked u where should a price stop? believe me on numerous occasion i have faced the same question, what should be the target??
so here by i will try to put some guide line and will try to explain how i view divergence and target projections
in the market, simple thing always works, pick up any thing which is simply reasonable, it will work, going by the simplicity, i would say an up move will stop at a resistance and a down move will stop at a support only
simple, is not it?
let us look at divergence.... simply
what it shows? whenever u r using RSI, u r essentially trying to judge the strength of the trend, so when there is a divergence, it only means that trend is loosing strength....thats all
weakening of trend does not necessarily means a change of trend or price reversal, it only shows that ppls are less enthusiastic about the security at this moment, being less interested or u can say, being some what suspicious about the longevity of the trend,the guys have started booking profits, and only the guys who are more "adventurer" will open position directly against the trend which is still some what continuing and of course, they might get caught on wrong foot and price may continue with the trend making the adventurers positions a loosing one!
this is the reason, that some of the market participants normally say, "div does not work" or "i dont follow any momentum indicator like RSI" i will confess that these kinds of statements have always given me something to laugh about during my idle hours
ok lets look back from here, what we have in our hand? we have only two simple things
1. price should stop or at least likely to stop at either support or resistance
and
2. divergence is a sign of lack of enthusiasm about the trend or in other word, its a sign of ppls doubtfulness about the longevity of the trend
now let us combine these two point into a rather simpler 3rd point........
we will not jump with divergence, we will trade divergence when we have a support or resistance near by, we will look for + div around support to go long and - div around resi to go short....clear?
in some what choppy to okey market, 5 min to 60 min div will work perfectly, but whenever we will have a strong trending market, we will have to see an EOD divergence for a possible entry points
since a divergence means only lack of enthusiasm, we will never venture with it when we have other factors against it,
like, we will avoid shorting on -div during bull run, instead if we are already long, we can use the div to book profit, same goes for a +div during bear attack , we will use it for short covering only
now the final part, what will be target? again i ask u....where a price is likely to stop?? u r ryt brother, it will stop at support or resi......
so after taking a trade, any strong support/resi, which comes in ur way is ur target 1, then target 2 and so on
so its imperative that we dont take a short too near a support and dont take a long too near a resi, alternatively, we can take a trade which 25% quantity if we "HAVE TO" take the trade, ( i will still say, dont take!!!) and after breaking the support/resi, trade the remaining 75% and look for next level of support/resi for ur target
so this was target part , not only for a div but may be for every trade u take and it was a very late reply..........
now being a true indian, i am always late to deliver but very fast to demand.....so here is my demand..... is the thing clear now?? tell if u need any more explanation, but plz dont let me "take my time" coz it may again become a very late one.....
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anand1234
Yellow Belt
Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 830
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| Post: #2554 Posted: Sun May 15, 2011 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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| casper wrote: | timken
today if it breaks below 204 and closes below that then leave it
otherwise u will get back ur price and may be a few rupees more
if it holds 204 and goes up today (it has no real time chart so cant say what's happening) then u can target 225-230 in short term
ps. forgot to add the chart here, see price made high, rsi made low, a clear -div, thats why it came down from 210+ levels, now if 204 holds then we can discount the div issue for now and go high afresh |
hi.................casper
timken still I holding.................but it has broken 204 level on 12/05/2011..............but now once again above 205............shd I hold further for ur tgt 220++ in short term or exit.............pls guide me.....................I purchased @ 212
thanks
anand
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S.S.
White Belt
Joined: 09 Feb 2011
Posts: 241
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| Post: #2555 Posted: Sun May 15, 2011 3:46 pm Post subject: |
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once again
Even u had replied late I still want to thank u coz the way u coved the question it require time.. superb and very well explain u coved all the point required at this level abt divergence for the time being its all clear once again thankx
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casper
Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010
Posts: 1315
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| Post: #2556 Posted: Sun May 15, 2011 7:30 pm Post subject: |
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anand da
now really tough to say about timken, it closed just below the monthly support of 205, in normal condition i wud say if it holds above 205 then no problem for now, but going by the "petrol price gift" i think we will have a gap down tomorrow and only if we get a pull back then we can hope some up move, anyways, by closing above 205 will give us a road for up move
hi saumik,
thanx and welcome, u know after getting late, the only way to save the face is to provide a detail answer
never mind, just kidding, in fact a few new ventures had eaten up my free time considerably but now after initial phase, i am getting habituated so i hope to drive some free time from my schedule very soon
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S.S.
White Belt
Joined: 09 Feb 2011
Posts: 241
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| Post: #2557 Posted: Sun May 15, 2011 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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| casper wrote: | hi saumik,
thanx and welcome, u know after getting late, the only way to save the face is to provide a detail answer
never mind, just kidding, in fact a few new ventures had eaten up my free time considerably but now after initial phase, i am getting habituated so i hope to drive some free time from my schedule very soon |
my all good wishes for ur new ventures and waiting for the day when u declare sucsess launching of ur site.....
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sumesh_sol
Brown Belt
Joined: 06 Jun 2010
Posts: 2344
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| Post: #2558 Posted: Wed May 18, 2011 12:24 pm Post subject: HEROHONDA |
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HEROHONDA .. 15tf
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We need one CLOSE (at least on 5tf) above 1841 for it to reach 1860/1875
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anand1234
Yellow Belt
Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 830
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| Post: #2559 Posted: Wed May 18, 2011 1:04 pm Post subject: |
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hi........sumesh
well come back............now a days u r not posting every day............if poss pls post regularly..............we r mising u
thanks
anand
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sumesh_sol
Brown Belt
Joined: 06 Jun 2010
Posts: 2344
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| Post: #2560 Posted: Wed May 18, 2011 1:05 pm Post subject: |
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| anand1234 wrote: | hi........sumesh
well come back............now a days u r not posting every day............if poss pls post regularly..............we r mising u
thanks
anand |
Boss good trades are very hard to find these days...
As and when I get any pattern, I will surely post...
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anand1234
Yellow Belt
Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 830
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| Post: #2561 Posted: Wed May 18, 2011 1:13 pm Post subject: |
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| sumesh_sol wrote: | | anand1234 wrote: | hi........sumesh
well come back............now a days u r not posting every day............if poss pls post regularly..............we r mising u
thanks
anand |
Boss good trades are very hard to find these days...
As and when I get any pattern, I will surely post... |
hi......sumesh
thanks for ur coments
thanks
anand
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anand1234
Yellow Belt
Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 830
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| Post: #2562 Posted: Thu May 19, 2011 11:11 am Post subject: |
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hi..........casper/sumesh
can U tell me abt hanung now trading @ 184 - 185 levels...........can I buy for short term??.............if so wt will b the tgt ??.............any s/l is req??
pls guide me..............
thanks
anand
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S.S.
White Belt
Joined: 09 Feb 2011
Posts: 241
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| Post: #2563 Posted: Thu May 19, 2011 11:47 am Post subject: |
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hi anand
sorry i m replying ur ques. this is just 4 my knowledge. casper will reply when he gets time
hanung
181 looks to a good support
on upperside 192/197/205 could be possible
once again sorry anand and casperbhai
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anand1234
Yellow Belt
Joined: 17 Jul 2010
Posts: 830
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| Post: #2564 Posted: Thu May 19, 2011 11:56 am Post subject: |
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| S.S. wrote: | hi anand
sorry i m replying ur ques. this is just 4 my knowledge. casper will reply when he gets time
hanung
181 looks to a good support
on upperside 192/197/205 could be possible
once again sorry anand and casperbhai |
hi...............s.s.
no problem boss...................its good to see ur comments also................i hope ur analisys will be ok
thanks
anand
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ronypan
White Belt
Joined: 07 Aug 2010
Posts: 197
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| Post: #2565 Posted: Thu May 19, 2011 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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JBCHEPHARM looks positive on chart...
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