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a layman's approach to break out and break down
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Author a layman's approach to break out and break down
casper
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Post: #2851   PostPosted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi shaumik

see the two divs u posted


in first case, u had a red candle on top and distance between two tops was within look back period, (parsvnath111 chart)

here u had a fall, though smaller, but a fall, and in fact during a strong trend in place, we can not expect any thing more than that from a div case as div is not suppossed to be used in trending market

in the second case, u hv no red candle in 2nd top and distance between the two tops are wider enough

so simply, 2nd div case did not produced any result as expected,

and as for resistance, yes , presence of multiple resi is a factor, but levels forms for breaking, so if they too broken, it will hv more upside

by the way, whenever u face this kinds of stronger trend in eod, always wait for a div in weekly tf for meaningful move contra to the trend
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S.S.
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Post: #2852   PostPosted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 8:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

got ur point
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singh.ravee
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Post: #2853   PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 7:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

casper bhai,
hello. Very Happy

A high volume breakout in mnf hourly from AT.

Hope to see 5300 = upper end of gap.

Thanks and Regards

Ravee



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rk_a2003
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Post: #2854   PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Casper!

May I request a commentory of todays upmove from you....... in case you find any......and if possible.
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S.S.
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Post: #2855   PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 8:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

singh.ravee wrote:
casper bhai,
hello. Very Happy

A high volume breakout in mnf hourly from AT.

Hope to see 5300 = upper end of gap.

Thanks and Regards

Ravee



hello ravee paji

sorry i jumped in between.... in my view we have to wait till friday close ..... what do u think paji????
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casper
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Post: #2856   PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2011 9:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi paaji,rk and ss

sorry, yday i could not reply u

first of all, i would say i have missed it and was in comm, so now after seeing ur post im checking it and finding out what was the reason for such a move

it was derived by the RBI, but if we see the charts, then we will find out that chart did tell u in well advance that some thing was going to happen

first of all, look at the eod flag, it is broken out with high volume yday, here, target could be aprx 5500

as u can see in the chart i posted, that there is still a parallel trend line and we closed just below that tl, so we must break it and sustain above that in order to go ahead,

and if we do that, then there will be a double bottom break out which should give a move of 400pts upside

(5200 the highs-4800 the lows=400 target)


now if we check in the real time versions, we will see that always market showed up some bullish signs and then moved ahead

i am attaching two charts, one is of 5 min and another is of 60 min tf (60 min one is already posted by ravee paaji)

in those charts we can clearly see that ,at first in 5tf it was like a double bot or we can say a small at too which broken out nicely

and in 60 min version , it was an at which formed over the last couple of days and today, during final hours, its broken out too

so ryt now the situation is , we had some bullish set ups and we nicely broken out too but in eod we are yet to break a level and closed just below that

so we need to be watchful,if that eod double bot resi were not there, we could start full fledged buying but since we have another level to clear, so lets wait and watch


Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy



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sandew
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Post: #2857   PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2011 10:43 am    Post subject: Nifty expiry Reply with quote

Well put, Casper - a wall at 5200 still to surmount.
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casper
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Post: #2858   PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2011 3:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks sandew

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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casper
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Post: #2859   PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2011 3:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi all

wish u a happy diwali and prosperous new year

groupwave1



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S.S.
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Post: #2860   PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

happy diwali and a happy new year to all IChartians
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maneesh007
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Post: #2861   PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi casper bhai & all Ichartians,


A very very Happy Deepawali to you & your family...


Warm regards

Maneesh Bhardwaj



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rk_a2003
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Post: #2862   PostPosted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 9:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nifty Filled up the gap down it made on 5-8-2011.During these 3 months this gap acted as an effective resistance for 4 times, on 5th attempt it jumped up and filled that gap.

If it is able to survive above this gap for a couple of days.This gap may effectively serve as a strong support in near future.

Then can We take long positions with a stop loss just below it?!. For a Target of 5500 and then 5700.



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S.S.
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Post: #2863   PostPosted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 10:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rk_a2003 wrote:
Nifty Filled up the gap down it made on 5-8-2011.During these 3 months this gap acted as an effective resistance for 4 times, on 5th attempt it jumped up and filled that gap.

If it is able to survive above this gap for a couple of days.This gap may effectively serve as a strong support in near future.

Then can We take long positions with a stop loss just below it?!. For a Target of 5500 and then 5700.



rk what u r showing in the chart is island reversal pattern i m not sure abt the sucsess ratio of the pattern. . . .though casper can speak better abt the pattern. . how reliable it is n what is the ratio of success in detail. as per pattern 5550 could be the possible target but we should watch out the trend line from top.5450 could be the resistance in short term ...will see what will happend in next weel ...



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casper
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Post: #2864   PostPosted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 10:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi maneesh bhai, thanks and welcome

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

hi rk

a contra view

see this, stage is ready, one gap up on monday followed by a red candle in 30 min spot chart, we have clear divergence

though there is no guarantee that we will make a red candle in 30 min tf in first 30 min, but even if it does what that would tell us??

two possibilities are there even if it gives a divergence

1st, div came and we fall

it will be bad news for our bears now turned bulls, bcoz they lost in shorting and will get another shock in long trades too

(plz rem rk, div only works in range bound market, so if div comes and we fall, it will show that we r still in range, so no new trend came....... quite shocking, wont be it???)


2nd

div came and we did not fall much and we start pulling up again

a good sign for bulls, then it will clearly show that new trend is in market, thats why div did not worked as expected and ur upside targets will be reached without much problems


Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy



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casper
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Post: #2865   PostPosted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 10:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi ss

yes , even if we dont fall due to a div as i wrote in prev post, still all longs for now should be aimed at that down trendline, and only after breaking that down tl, we will have some respite

before that expect last attack of bear around that tl

as for island reversal

i read about it but i have no personal exp of trading them, (simply bcoz they are so rare)

so i hope for the best

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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