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a layman's approach to break out and break down |
vishytns White Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2009 Posts: 206
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Post: #331 Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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Casper,
You have compose a great script on bo/bd trading buddy. Appreciate your efforts and time that you have spent on educating newbies(including me).
I express lots of thanks from newbies side
Keep up good job buddy. We will keep this thread rocking...
Vishy.
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casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #332 Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 11:10 pm Post subject: |
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hi vishy,
thanks for ur kind words. but in reality i could do nothing if all of u, particularly u, newinvestor, girishhu1, vishal.measoldier,drsureshsbs and many others were not here to support, again encouragements from all of u and chrome sir, sumesh_sol, veeru sir,and other seniors are the moral booster for me,
personally i am greatly benefited as i got very good opportunity to revise the theories and apply them on day to day basis. if all of u were not here, then being extremely lazy, i wont work this much and the result of practice is clearly seen. there is lot of difference between me who started this thread and today's me who is writing this now.but if u see, i have done nothing, now if we all work together, may be we can do something.
one thing i feel very strongly that, from ichart we get state of art tools, state of art advices from senior traders, the forum is so enriched, how come we make loss constantly at the market? of course there will be some loss but ultimately, we will win. its my dream to see that today or tomorrow, all of us will reach to a position from where we can say that : 'yes, we can do it, we know how to make money at ease', we are all here for this purpose only, some day, sooner or later,i feel very strongly, we will do it. its my dream.
by da way,tell me one thing, where were u all the way? u have not wrote any thing for last couple of days, now u r back. let us start analyzing various charts once more, there will be more questions, more doubts more loop holes, our task is not finished, u, me, all other members of ichart community, altogether we will find the answer of all those problems
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paa White Belt
Joined: 28 Sep 2010 Posts: 178
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Post: #333 Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 12:09 am Post subject: |
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Hi Casper
Advice :
I am reading all posts everyday. I read You, Chrome, Veeru, PT, ST. I am new to this trading? !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Please advise :
I am 43 Yrs. Want to invest 15000 a month.
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newinvestor White Belt
Joined: 16 Feb 2010 Posts: 120
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Post: #334 Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 12:15 am Post subject: |
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Ok, Casper, got your point. The objective is to get in before the volatility of the breakout / down.
You once mentioned that you choose the breakout candidates from the stocklist, Volume gainers.
But if we have to identify candidates before they really begin to move, how to identify ? ( as the volumes may still not have shot up, to give a clue).
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casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #335 Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 8:54 am Post subject: |
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paa wrote: | Hi Casper
Advice :
I am reading all posts everyday. I read You, Chrome, Veeru, PT, ST. I am new to this trading? !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Please advise :
I am 43 Yrs. Want to invest 15000 a month. |
hi paa,
dont invest now, we are in corrective phase, our bull party for the time being is over. right now we are anticipating the limit of correction, some say 5800. we say 5700. veru sir warned was that this could be even worst, taking us upto 5555 or even 5100 level, let the market fall smoothly and wait for bottoming out.
as u want to invest, i am giving u an idea here. i read about it before a few years, but as i am not an investor, i never worked on it.
if u are sure that u can invest a fixed sum per month, u can make a sip for 2-3 years or even longer time frame in equity.
here we need to get a few good companies, if u are able to look at the FUNDAMENTAL SIDE such as company balance sheet. p/l a/c etc u can find it . u are new, still if u have commerce back ground then it wont be too tough to make a decision.
if u r not from commerce back ground or just cant do it for any other reason, then find out some company which is profitable for today and we can believe that it will be profitable to be part of the company two years later also
for example, lets see state bank of india, its position in banking system is just after the rbi.(practically from all aspects), private banks may face problems and crisis, but being govt bank, its quite immune. i dont think it will face the fate like Lehmann brothers any way.
now suppose if we start purchasing its share on a fixed amount of price, say 15000 per month. then at present we will get 5 shares. if the price shoots up then we will get lesser shares and if the price goes down, we will get greater share, all the way we are investing a fixed sum per month, be it bull be it bear,
now after 3 years of investing, we have invested almost 5lakh 40 thousand. and price has gone any where, ranging from 6000 to even pitiable 60 rupees a piece. but as we have invested a fixed sum and with that sum, during bullish days we have got less share and in bearish time, we got more share for that sum, our investment is VERY NICELY AVERAGED NOW and its very likely that our average price will be much lesser than the market price at any given time.
in this way. we can avoid the day to day tension of the market very easily and at the same time can gain handsome returns on our investments.
for example purpose,i wrote about a single company. the profit will be greater and the risk will be lesser if we diverse the portfolio with say a banking stock, an IT stock and with an automobile and so on
and if u want to trade for shorter time frame,u can do it also. in this case. u have to stick with technical analysis and have to find out good technical buys which will produce results within 1 week to 1 months time frame, but for a fresher, it will be a lil tougher to trade in short term
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casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #336 Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 9:05 am Post subject: |
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newinvestor wrote: | Ok, Casper, got your point. The objective is to get in before the volatility of the breakout / down.
You once mentioned that you choose the breakout candidates from the stocklist, Volume gainers.
But if we have to identify candidates before they really begin to move, how to identify ? ( as the volumes may still not have shot up, to give a clue). |
ya i do use that list. in that case we will get stocks on eod basis, which has just broken out. in this case. we can verify the stocks we got with this system and if everything is okey, we can trade it
as of now, there is no way to get a list of stock before their bo and volume gain, so if we want to do it. then we have to do it manually. no help is on website now.
by the way. one thing to mention while trading on eod basis, some time u will see that macd was bearish while the pattern was bullish and macd got a buy signal only on the broken out candle, it is better to avoid this kind of stocks, they wont run much, but if u get a buy signal of macd through out the pattern formation, the chance of break out is greater
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vishytns White Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2009 Posts: 206
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Post: #337 Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 9:33 am Post subject: |
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Casper,
Instance of Symmetrical Triangle as a continuation pattern in NIFTY spot chart in 15 minutes timeframe. I saw NIFTY-1M futures chart, and the pattern is not same there. Volumes were good during the break down. Now will there be a pullback towards break down support line (downward edg of a symmetrical traingle or will be go down. We will find the answer tommorow. Provide your views.
vishy
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singh.ravee Yellow Belt
Joined: 12 Aug 2010 Posts: 678
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Post: #338 Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 9:47 am Post subject: my analysis |
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dear casper,
would like to share my research work in the attached file. As u said, there is an analyst and a trader in an individual. The analyst in me is doing a good job, however the trader in me is failing most of the time. I fail to understand, when to trade intraday and when to trade on positional basis. My losses are primarily from intraday trades.
This time I was sure on opening short on nifty from 6250+ levels. However my teacher discouraged my view. I lost my frame of mind to open short and now i find nifty close to 5900 and i feel upset.
It would be nice on your part if u can guide me on the same.
Thanks and Regards
Ravinder Singh.
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vishytns White Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2009 Posts: 206
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Post: #339 Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:13 am Post subject: |
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Dear ravee,
Yesterday night i was in shout box chatting with Veeru Anna, I was asking him to be my GURU. You know what he said "Oh GOD save vishy". I think what he says is right. we should follow our own instincts, because we know our risk. During learing process I recommend that we should follow what casper in doing paper trades. So if you are in learning then do some paper trades. If willing to trade during learning process, do it in small amounts.
One more thing, you know that your TA was correct that means you are learning in right direction, only thing is that we need to practice what we have learnt, only then we have experience right?
FOLLOW techincal analysis and it can make merry in long term. You can always post your charts here in icharts forum discuss ideas. Remember all the decisions are at your own and based on the analysis you have made.
I hope that i have tried to tell you what i am experiencing during my learing process. Hope this will help you. Casper Correct me IF i am wrong.
Vishy
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Rahulsharmaat Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2009 Posts: 2766
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Post: #340 Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:21 am Post subject: |
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Same is with me-- I post calls-- all hit good targets-- but as a trader i dont follow them-- n the stop losses--- when i ask others to book profit--0-they follow-- but i dont follow my words n result is huge loss--- how to over come this---
I posted a chart to short nifty-- where as i bought it--- all thanked me for short-- n i lost
oh god
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Rahulsharmaat Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2009 Posts: 2766
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Post: #341 Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:27 am Post subject: |
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Last week i gave HDFC LTD buy above 731-- it was trading below 730 whole day--- I bought at 728-- n straight it was at 700---- why i didnt placved order above 731---
Next was DLF i gave buy above 371.50-- where as i bought at 368--- it never crossed 370--n as results were bad straight went to 320---
Same with Macdowell I exited at 1540-- high was 1544-- gave short with 1560 stop loss-- why i didnt short-- it went to 1320---
and many more--
now how to overcome all these
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newinvestor White Belt
Joined: 16 Feb 2010 Posts: 120
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Post: #342 Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:35 am Post subject: |
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as of now, there is no way to get a list of stock before their bo and volume gain, so if we want to do it. then we have to do it manually. no help is on website now.
Ok. What do you think can be a good process for this work of pattern identification , while under formation?
I looked at Spice jet, I felt that it can do one of two things, either go upto its previous high of 94 and try for a break out there, or form the right shoulder till about 87, and then retreat below the neckline at 82.
What can be the starting point for this process, find stocks with rising RSI etc, and look for any patterns or identify any pattern being formed and then reconcile with the Oscillators?
What should be the stoploss if one enters a trade in a pattern under formation? maybe the other trendline?
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paa White Belt
Joined: 28 Sep 2010 Posts: 178
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Post: #343 Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:40 am Post subject: |
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Thanks Casper,
Please give advice on the following strategy!
1. My objective is for 16 years (retirement).
2. I'll purchase stocks worth rs 10000 every month. And rs 5000 per month to trade nifty F&O.
3. For investment i'll puchase only stocks with mkt cap 10000 crore or more. e.g RIL, LT, SBI, HDFC,Axis, Infosys, Maruti, Bharti airtel, BHEL, Tata power, Sun Pharma, BPCL, ONGC, Bajaj Auto, Educomp.
4. For trading i'll select nifty F&O and stocks trading with decent volumes.
I think this is not right forum to discuss this. Please don't mind!
How to start new threads?
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geetlasandeep White Belt
Joined: 18 Nov 2010 Posts: 2
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Post: #344 Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 11:26 am Post subject: |
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dear casper, i want to know about charts and how to read them.i do trading in indiainfoline.i see the graph but i don't know how to plot on that.well, to say frankly,iam a beginner.i request you to kindly guide me.regards,sandeep.
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casper Green Belt
Joined: 02 Oct 2010 Posts: 1315
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Post: #345 Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 11:33 am Post subject: |
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vishytns wrote: | Casper,
Instance of Symmetrical Triangle as a continuation pattern in NIFTY spot chart in 15 minutes timeframe. I saw NIFTY-1M futures chart, and the pattern is not same there. Volumes were good during the break down. Now will there be a pullback towards break down support line (downward edg of a symmetrical traingle or will be go down. We will find the answer tommorow. Provide your views.
vishy |
hi vishy.
after a breaking down it has got a sell signal from macd, and rsi is oversold, so we can expect a pull back or a gap up opening.
it would be good if the macd sell signal came before the break down, but it came only during break down. in such cases i have seen a pull back many a times, while nifty movement is a complex thing in comparison with stock movement as lots of things are there to interfere, but as of chart. we can expect a pull back or gap up for sure
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