iCharts Discussions

[casper]

So, as we agreed a couple of days ago, we would try to explore ways to 'earn constantly' . so here is the first attempt to be profitable (!!!)

To earn constantly , we have to move along the rhythm of the market, if it goes up we will go long, if it goes down we will go short and if it goes side ways we will take our near and dear's hand and will go for a walk

Because, almost each of us makes money when market goes up or goes down........ but when it goes sideways , we make loss which out runs our profit.

so here is the key, trade in bullish or bearish market and avoid sideways,
simple right?



And what about prediction and tips and view??

well, we wont do that any more. it seems market has its own mind and its always up to doing something which is very much contradictory of what we,the rag tag peoples of this great indian capital market expect.


Most of us are very good with technical or financial or other kind of prediction systems, but it is suggested by our experience that it is always our brokers, who made money out of our trades, not us........

when we predicted successfully we have not taken that trade and alas when we took the trade, prediction was not so good

(i am not pointing to any one, but it seems a fact for almost every one who is new or with less experience , plz dont feel personal here)

so here on, just to relive ourselves from the stress and strain of predicting and then anxiously waiting for the outcome, in this thread, we stop predicting, but following .

now question comes, whom to follow?

to follow the trend................story ends

although it is not absolutely necessary, but still some may find basic guidelines of trend are useful, so in next post, lets see what is trend and how simply we can guess which trend is prevailing

[sambhaji_t]

Waiting for next post

[ravionlinek]

[prasadkonda]

Casper!
Sure its going to be indepth.... and required too....

Even after knowing tech analysis, patterns, and etc,etc .... many traders like me going broke again and again and again..

OK. how can we define a trend? Is it a sure shot? how to follow it?

Again Ok. even though the backtest of a certain methodolgy prooves profitable, In real world (mkts), how to confront it? (can't neglect human emotions)

Apart from tech analysis is there any thing that it make us along with trend ?

... As 'a layman....' ( as a novice) asking


Regards
Prasadkonda

[rk_a2003]

Casper,
You are talking about “basic guidelines of trend”. See what Prasad is expecting “Sure it’s going to be in depth.... and required too....”.The bottom line is if you are presenting something we expect it in depth irrespective of what you say.

[casper]

hi all, thanks for visiting the thread

prasadkonda sir

here is my reply to ur queries

1.i am going to write about trend definition and its methods right after completing this post.

2. it will not be sure shot , u see its me who is going to define the method, so i have access to it before u, and yet u see, my name is no where in Forbes billionaire list



so we can safely conclude this will never be sure shot, other wise u would hv find me in place of mr. buffet or mr jhunjhunwala by now

3. following this in real market

i will try to provide a method as simple as possible with out much scope for analyzing, since well established traders are not supposed to follow it, so i will try to keep it to the basics. otherwise, new comers or less experienced traders may find it hard to follow and thus the main reason for writing so much will be gone.


4. since i am trying to make it simple, rather mathematical type trading method, so i hope it will reduce the scope of human involvement and thus will reduce the chance of human error


5. this is a very broad question, to discuss it in full extent is beyond the scope of this thread, as any thing and every thing works in this market and there is no one who can say he understood and did all.

just we have to do the right thing at right moment, only proficiency in once's method will guide as about the right thing in right moment, so its imperative that what ever we do, we do in full extent.

a rather mixture of everything may be harmful initially as the more complex we make the system the more time we need to master it and this learning curve costs a lot


some of my well established ( i mean it) trader friends even combine t.a and f.a with astrology to get their job done and they r doing just fine..... kabhi khushi kabhi gum........ the way market works indeed

likewise, i followed chart and chart only as i dont really understand beyond chart and i acknowledge it

so by going by charts only i also had my share of laughter and tears........ as the way market works


since the end result is not very different for various methods, so we will find various way of trading and safely we can say every thing will work in right situation and we have to train ourselves to identify that right situation, thats it


brother rk

blame it on my bad luck, every time i try to write as little as i can and i end up writing a detail post , this very post is a classic example of what happens to me when i write



sambhaji_t and ravionlinek sirs

here comes next post

[vinay28]

[sambhaji_t]

Casperji,
Ye Dil Mange More

Start from no. 1

[casper]

Trend

simply its the general direction of an tradable asset....... its like a wind flow and current of a river

if we sail along the current and wind we move safely , easily and faster and the moment we sail against it we end up toiling a lot and gaining little

so the more we trade with the trend the less we take risk during the trade, since general trend will favor us, so even a misplaced entry and sl will provide us good result.

basically, we will be facing three kind of situation, when market goes up, up trend

when market goes down ---- down trend

and when market goes no where --- side ways


being with the trend is so important that there is joke about it in trading community, it goes as follows:-

" what is a trend?"

" its a market condition when every tom , dick and harry will think themselves as warren buffet"

so even from this joke we can guess , being with the trend means u r a lot safer from making mistakes


but how it looks like??


well, every body has his /her idea


below is a chart attached for ur reviewing, here on a daily nifty chart i used a 10% cut off zigzag

just to show u, while we were breaking our necks in the market in last couple of years...... market was moving in a real simple and harmonic way, in this chart, the purple line shows the price (a line chart) and white straight lines are the direction of general trend

but dont fell for it !!!

this is just an after move chart so its easy to tag (what indeed i did to show u what general trend means), in real time however, zigzag wont be of much help, and it will get a bit tougher

********

ST SIR/PT SIR/ KAMAL SIR

since zigzag was not included in our premium subscription, so i had to use another charting platform to generate this chart, i hope i am not breaking any rule, if so, then i am sorry.

[gambletrader]

Casper Dada,
Eagerly waiting. Please continue your posts.
Cheers,
Gamble Trader

[casper]

the up trend

this is a market condition where price would go up, technical way of putting it, its a situation when we will see new highs are made. i.e older highs are broken

so in uptrend we will see price is breaking its previous highs and making newer highs, while never breaking its previous established lows so we will get a series of higher highs and higher lows

on a lighter note,most of us will get itchy fingers during up trend to short it since we would think its 'too high' price so it should come down and thus we would loss a good amount of trading capital

since a trend is not created but to be followed, so when u find any stock or any other asset is going up, plz try to buy on dips and never short, if u cant find a buy (which i think, u will be able to find soon) then dont touch it at all

only after making a lower low, and thus breaking the series of higher highs and higher low, an up trend will show us the first indication of trend reversal and question of shorting will come after that

plz see the attached picture for a clearer idea

[casper]

the down trend

just opposite of the uptrend, this is a situation when price will break its previous lows and will make new lows, technically, it is a situation when price will make new lows by breaking previous lows and will never go beyond previously established highs, so will produce lower highs so effectively, it will be a series of lower highs and lower lows


again on a lighter note, we will see most of us are trying to predict bottom and trying to buy and getting trapped, this , in my view, is another good way to go bankrupt

since we will never predict in this thread, so when u see situation is like a down trend, plz dont try to buy

once a bearish trend or down trend is established, our only options will be either short or stay away but never buy .


only after making a higher high ABOVE most recent high i.e only after creating a new high which would break above the lowest high of this series, we will get the indication that PERHAPS down trend is going to change

[casper]

the choppy trend or a trading range

this a is a situation when we who trade for livings, seriously consider getting into a job or do something else

bcoz this is the time when price would move within a range , without clearly showing any bullish or bearish bias

technically, no new highs are made here , nor any new low , so price roams within a set highs and lows

as time goes by, this range squeezes thus producing classical chart patterns such as triangles (continuation signal of trend which prevailed before becoming choppy)

in rare cases, it will expand (really really rare) thus producing broadening patterns (reversal signals)


if one wants to become millionaire, then they should use trend following techniques within choppy trend as most of us already do.

yes u read it right, it will be a sure shot way to be a millionaire, just u hv to be a billionaire before u start doing it

okey, jokes apart

this is a phase of market when we will loss much much more than what we actually earned in bullish and bearish time

since we are to follow a trend following system, so we MUST KNOW ABOUT CHOPPY TREND AND AVOID IT BY ALL MEANS

[casper]

[casper]

sambhaji_t and gambletrader sirs and all other brothers and sisters who may be viewing this thread silently

sorry, due to unavoidable situation i could not post in between and u had to wait.

however basic part which we need to know before going for actual system is almost covered today, only a couple of topics are left for tomorrow (hopefully)

once done, we will have to go for a hands on activity

so plz read the posts and if u find any question plz feel free to ask