iCharts Discussions

[vinay28]

Two things Ajay. My lowest no. is after 5165 and that's not necessarily the last low. After 5435 we may have plus or minus 28/35%. Many would like to believe that it is minus 28/35%.

By the way, mine are intraday high/low SPOT values

[ajayhkaul]

Interesting numbers .... so market unlikely to break 5435 as per prevailing projections?

[vinay28]

I will check up with God and let you now!

[ajayhkaul]

Easier to toss a coin....... same result....... God is busy with the praying bears at the moment...

[ajayhkaul]

Bombs in Iran

Someone is still setting off bombs in Iran.

There was a large explosion at a big refinery in Isfahan last week — and a second at a Revolutionary Guards base in Kerman, the headquarters of the Guards operations in Afghanistan.

This comes on top of several previous blasts at army stations as well as at least four nuclear scientists who were blown up, poisoned, or shot to death.

It is not widely known who is responsible. It could be an Iranian faction, the U.S., Israel, or the Saudis. There is no shortage of powers that don't want Iran to get a nuke.

Now Iran has announced they will hold a naval warfare game near the Straits of Hormuz. This is the number one shipping lane for crude oil.

All the while, the Iranian economy is being squeezed...

The currency, the rial, is in a death spiral after four rounds of UN sanctions. It has dropped from 13,000 to the dollar to 15,000 to the dollar in just a few weeks. It fell 15% in just three days after UAE-Iranian trade was cut due to new sanctions.

In fear of their currency, Iranians have been lining up to buy gold. As a result, the government halted all direct official sales last week.

Iraq: No Longer Our Problem

The U.S. forces recently left Iraq, leaving a power vacuum.

On Thursday more than a dozen explosions were set off, killing 63 people and wounding more than 180 others in the worst violence in months.

According to Voice of America:

The apparent coordinated blasts Thursday struck across the city, mainly in Shi'ite areas, days after the final withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.

The attacks come amid a political crisis, as the Shi'ite-led government pursues the arrest of Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi on charges that he plotted to kill other government officials.

But Hashemi, a Sunni, said Wednesday the allegations are politically motivated by the prime minister, who Hashemi says wanted to consolidate power when U.S. troops left this month.

Iraq exported 64.8 million barrels of oil in October and brought in $70 billion in revenue. The country has hopes of exporting 4.5 million barrels a day by 2014. A sharp increase in violence or even civil war will take this supply off the market.


Kazakhstan Riots

Sixteen people were left dead and hundreds injured in Kazakhstan over the weekend.

Kazakhstan is the second-biggest oil producer in the former Soviet Union behind Russia. It pumped out 1.76 million barrels a day last year.

News is now leaking of a riot in Western Kazakhstan during the 20-year anniversary of independence celebrations. This is the worst violence in this autocratic country in two decades.

Many believe these riots were started by oil workers who have been striking since May.

Oil production has fallen 8.5 percent this year due to the strikes.

[vinay28]

Ajay, don't try to increase price of oil!

[ajayhkaul]

how about Gold instead !?

[vinay28]

No I want to see it at 1450$

[ajayhkaul]

Total Gold held with the banks vs Total currency printed ---- what is the gap?

[vinay28]

I don't know but what I do know is that many of the GTFs in the world are not backed by gold. Big scam!

[rk_a2003]

True... Most of the Gold ETF's either don't have gold or less gold in proportion.

If ETF holders demand physical gold delivery what will happen?!

The Gap........Total Gold held with the banks vs Total currency printed ---- should be huge .The said proportion supposed to be maintained was dishonoured by economies long back.

[amitkbaid1008]

[ajayhkaul]

who is monitoring the ETFs ( how much , quality and location of the gold )?
We are notorious in terms of bending rules and audits

[codered]

China Insolvency Wave Begins As Nation's Biggest Provincal Borrowers "Defer" Loan Payments



Remember, back in the day, when a bankruptcy was simply called a bankruptcy? Naturally, this was well before ISDA came on the scene and footnoted the living feces out of everything by claiming that a bankruptcy is never a bankruptcy, as long as the creditors agree to 99.999% losses at gunpoint, with electrodes strapped to their testicles, submerged in a tank full of rabid piranhas, it they just sign a piece of paper (preferably in their own blood) saying the vaseline-free gang abuse was consensual. Well, now we learn that as the global insolvency wave finally moves to China, a bankruptcy is now called something even less scary: "deferred loan payments" (and also explains why suddenly Japan is going to have to bail China out and buy its bonds, because somehow when China fails, it is the turn of the country that started the whole deflationary collapse to step to the plate). After all, who in their right mind would want to scare the public that the entire world is now broke. Certainly not SWIFT. And certainly not that paragon of 8%+ annual growth, where no matter how many layers of lipstick are applied, the piggyness of it all is shining through ever more acutely. Because here are the facts, from China Daily, and they speaks for themselves: "China's biggest provincial borrowers are deferring payment on their loans just two months after the country's regulator said some local government companies would be allowed to do so....Hunan Provincial Expressway Construction Group is delaying payment on 3.11 billion yuan in interest, documents governing the securities show this month. Guangdong Provincial Communications Group Co, the second-largest debtor, is following suit. So are two others among the biggest 11 debtors, for a total of 30.16 billion yuan, according to bond prospectuses from 55 local authorities that have raised money in capital markets since the beginning of November." So not even two months in and companies are already becoming serial defaulters, pardon, "loan payment deferrers?" And China is supposed to bail out the world? Ironically, in a world in which can kicking is now an art form, China will show everyone just how it is done, by effectively upturning the capital structure and saying that paying interest is, well, optional. In the immortal words of the comrade from Georgia, "no coupon, no problem."

Our advice: go long Teva, which recently acquired Cephalon, and its wonderful drug Provigil, which is basically legalized cocaine, speed, meth and heroin all in one perfectly legal pill, as the newsflow, up until now only picking up with the idiot headlines out of Europe at 3 am Eastern is about to become one constant 24/7 flashing red rumor/disinformation mill. Also, next time someone wants to make THE drug cocktail of choice for the headline reacting speed trading junkie, please name it appropriately. Jeffrey will suffice.

[codered]

World's Second And Third Largest Economies To Bypass Dollar, Engage In Direct Currency Trade


To all who still think that in the war of attrition between the USD and the EUR (because contrary to what some have "discovered" only recently, currency wars have been going on for a long, long time and will continue to do so, before morphing into trade and real wars), in which both currencies are doomed, and where the winner takes it all, if only for a few minutes, we bring to your attention the following most recent update out of the Pacific Rim (where incidentally the Shanghai Composite has resumed its relentless track lower with the obvious intention of closing 2011 at its 52 week low) in which we find i) that the dollar's hegemonic control over the world is ending, and ii) that the mercantilist relationship so long sustained between China and the US, may be shifting and reversing, and in its next metamorphosis will see Japan buying the bonds of... China (although probably not for long - see next post). As Bloomberg reports, "Japan and China will promote direct trading of yen and yuan without using dollars and will encourage the development of a market for the exchange, to cut costs for companies, the Japanese government said. Japan will also apply to buy Chinese bonds next year, the Japanese government said in a statement after a meeting between Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Beijing yesterday." And before someone blows it off as merely more foreign relations posturing, "“Given the huge size of the trade volume between the Asia’s two biggest economies, this agreement is much more significant than any other pacts China has signed with other nations,” said Ren Xianfang, a Beijing-based economist with IHS Global Insight Ltd." As for China's reverse mercantilist move, one which will stun anyone who believes that Yuan is still undervalued, "Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Dec. 20 buying of Chinese bonds would be beneficial for Japan because it would help reveal more information about financial markets in China, the world’s largest holder of foreign currency reserves." Speaking of, has Albert Edwards gloated yet that given enough time, he always ends up being proven right, in this case about the CNY's upcoming devaluation?