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[codered]

Deaths and disruption as price rise sees copper thefts soar

With Chinese market fuelling demand, thieves target signal wire, piping in homes, and even bronze statues.

It sounded like the opening from a noir whodunnit. A body is found in the early hours of the morning in the remote desert outside San Diego, close to the Mexican border. Nearby a ladder is propped against a pole; cutting tools are scattered on the ground. A downed 12,000v power line lies near the body.

It did not take a Sam Spade or a Philip Marlowe to solve this mystery. "If you're out there at 2 o'clock in the morning with a ladder I don't know what else you'd be doing," said James Bovet, a sergeant at the San Diego county sheriff's department, when the body was found two weeks ago.

Dennis Ray Daniels, 44, was one of two dozen people reported to have been killed in the past two years in the US engaging in a curious new crime sweeping parts of the developed world: copper theft. With copper prices rising from 80 cents a pound five years ago to $4 a pound, the wiring and pipework to be found in transport, buildings and electrical infrastructure is suddenly attractive booty for thieves.

Britain has not been spared. Hundreds of trains are disrupted each year because of missing copper from signal cabling and tracks. Electricity sub-stations, telephone cables, gas piping in homes, street furniture, school roofs and bronze statues have all been targeted. The crime is so pervasive that last year the Association of Chief Police Officers set up a dedicated Conductive Metal Thefts Working Group. Theft of metal has been described as the most serious threat to Britain's railways apart from terrorism.

"You can almost plot a linear relationship between the market price of copper and the level of crime," said a spokesman for British Transport Police. Last year it recorded 1,928 metal thefts and arrested 396 people compared with 1,142 such offences and 317 arrests in 2006.

The demand for the metal is being driven, say analysts, by an explosion in the Chinese copper market. With the Olympics looming, and the country in the middle of a construction boom, China is hungry for every bit of scrap it can get. Imports have risen exponentially over the past decade, and consumption is expected to reach 5m tonnes this year. China accounts for more than 22% of world copper demand. But the effects of the new global player's clout are only now becoming apparent.

"It is unprecedented. We have never had a country of this size developing. China is trying to get to the level of the US or Europe. Imagine how many people want mobile phones, how many houses are going up, how much that will consume. It's not just copper - it's everything," said one market analyst at CRU International research in London.

The assumption is that the stolen metal is helping to supply the large-scale construction projects in China - not just Olympic infrastructure such as the "Birds Nest" stadium, but the tower blocks, industrial parks and transport links up and down the country.

In Australia, according to local media reports, the police have been investigating a criminal gang suspected of shipping £10m of black-market copper to China over the last five years. In recent weeks the Melbourne police have made three large seizures of stolen copper, including four tonnes in a shipping container ready for export.

In America the targets vary from mobile phone towers (New Jersey) to motorway lighting (California). The California Highway Patrol has urged the public to report suspicious activity - such as someone up a ladder next to a motorway at 2am - to the authorities. "They're blacking out our freeways," one officer said.

In Britain there have been law enforcement successes. A Manchester man was sentenced to 15 months' imprisonment for stealing £12,000 worth of cable from railway sidings in Cumbria last September. Last week three men, one a scrap dealer, were given prison sentences totalling 17 years after posing as railway contractors and stealing three drums of copper cables from a London railway siding.

In the US the response has been to legislate. Last year Arizona enacted laws to deal with the problem, and similar legislation came into effect in New Mexico in January. The aim is to track the sale of scrap metals by obliging dealers to hold on to the material for a minimum number of days and to verify the identities of those who are selling metals to them.

But as prices for scrap copper have risen so the reward for the risk undergone gets higher.

According to the analyst at CRU International much of the stolen copper will make its way back home after its journey to the south-east and east Asia.

"If it goes into air conditioning units or cars, and that's exported to the UK or US, it all ends up back here anyway," the analyst said. "It's a circular process because China is making more and more stuff that uses copper and exporting it as an end-use product."

The effect of the rise in copper prices has even been felt in the heart of Hollywood. The cost of making each of this year's Oscar statuettes rose by $100 to $500. The increase was due largely to the rise in the price of gold used to plate the statuette, but underneath the gold lies copper.

[vinay28]

Codered, your posts are good and different. I think, like Ajay, you should open your own thread.

[ajayhkaul]

I wish you all a VERY HAPPY AND A PROFITABLE YEAR 2012 !

[vinay28]

Thank you dear and wish you all the very best for the new year!

[ajayhkaul]

Some thoughts for 2012 from a veteran trader ( a techie)- Bill Poulos

After nearly 4 decades in the markets, I’ve observed that there are 2 types of traders –

Those that think they need to be trading all the time…

-and those who are SMART.

You see, the SMART traders figured out a long time ago that if you trade all the time, you’re not maximizing the odds of success in the markets, and you’re exposing yourself to WAY TOO MUCH RISK. The SMART traders figured out that only amateurs (or gamblers… or fools) feel the need to trade all the time. The SMART traders figured out to only trade when the odds are in your favor.

So the question is — which type of trader are you? Be honest with yourself, This is a CRITICAL trading concept .The one concept could mean the difference between a lifetime of struggle in the markets, or a lifetime of ABUNDANCE in the markets.

[vinay28]

true but the million dollar questioin is : how do the SMART traders find out when odds are their favour?

[ajayhkaul]

Vinay -- it is not a million dollar question --- whatever trading strategy one uses it will NOT work under all the market conditions which are :
1) up volatile
2) up quiet
3) down volatile
4) down quiet
5) sideways volatile
6) sideways quiet

Usually experience teaches the trader to stick to a single strategy and that wont work in all the above conditions. He must know which condition is best suited ie gives a positive expectancy for his system.

For example swing trading does not yield good results in sideways volatile markets OR crossovers dont work in sideways quiet markets and so on.

[vinay28]

sure ajay

[rk_a2003]

[rk_a2003]

That's what my methodology told/taught me Ajay....' Wait patiently till I give you the signal.......Till that time watch silently'...... you know one thing by doing so... I have yet to get a lose....earlier I am also a compulsive trader It taught me how not to be compulsive.

[ajayhkaul]

Share more of your experience RK

[rk_a2003]

Nothing is a secret .Everything being posted here.I am a firm believer of

open source . Will coninue doing so.... In this aspect your broader funadamental view should help all of us.

[ajayhkaul]

The Psychotic Trader !

Created On: 03/01/2012 22:05:45
Hey , Are you there yet ? ! Read on .....

You're into trading stocks, options, futures. You've paid expensive tuition for being a rookie, stopped making stupid mistakes, and yet, you're still not trading like a professional.

You've mastered the basics. You know a cup and saucer from a knife and fork. You know support and resistance, north from south, up from down, gain from loss. But you're not breaking through to levels of profits you know are out there. What is it you're missing that will make the difference? Here's what separates you from the real pros.

Pepto Bismol. Lots of it. Cases of it. And not the tablets. Those take too long. You need a bottle of pink sitting on the desk so you can hit it hard and often as trades go against you, break through your limits and keep going while you desperately try to get out. Taking a quick slug of that soothing, stomach liner isn't just a luxury. It's a necessity. Real pros keep a bottle on their desk and three or four in their top drawer. And that's just a two day supply. Also helps digest those hot dogs and burgers partially masticated for lunch. Or the box of candy that you got for being a broker's best client as you traded your way into finally breaking even for the month.

Pencils. Lots of them. They serve two purposes. The first and most obvious is for breaking. Nothing quite feels as good as grabbing a pencil and just snapping it in half. Either in joy or anger. The second purpose: for throwing them up and sticking in ceiling tiles. A real pro has at least 10 to 20 pencils hanging from the ceiling. Great for those days when markets are quiet and nothing to do.!

Carbon fiber telephones. These are expensive, yes, but well worth their weight in, well, carbon fiber. Carbon fiber won't break as you slam the receiver down, over and over or bang it against a bank of buttons, venting your frustration because a floor trader didn't fill an order or a stock moved away from your buy limit. Real pros go through two or three ordinary phones a year. Until they get the carbon fiber model. It has been known to last as long as nine months for extreme bashers and many years for traders with a little more control.

Books. Ones like Zen And The Art Of Happiness. Or just plain Zen.
Or The Complete Idiot's Guide to Zen Living (preferably the second edition). Or Living Zen. Or in another direction but with the same effect: The Brilliant Book of Calm. Or a favorite among the more together pros:
The Chemistry of Calm: A Powerful, Drug-Free Plan to Quiet Your Fears and Overcome Anxiety. You get the picture. Read more than charts. Move away from the computer. Count to 25. Breathe. Read.

Hard liquor. This needs to be stored away from your trading area. Or served outside your office or home. Most of the time consumed in bars with other people, preferably other traders who can understand that "a few ticks" means thousands of dollars lost or gained. Or ones who nod knowingly that no one gets how tough your job is. Or how your stress levels are getting beyond the doctor's ability to measure. Scotch, vodka, and gin are the most often quaffed drinks. Straight. Usually doubles, especially after those days when losses were way more than gains. Wine is OK, but it takes longer to get to the destination, the one far away from your trading desk. Better with dinner.

A good therapist. Here's the one person traders can really talk to. Not a friend. Friends don't comprehend the daily grind of trading. They think it's just a nice easy way to make a lot money. No, a therapist is someone traders can trust, someone they can pour out their emotional problems to, someone who gets the personality traits that make a trader. Some of those traits can be complex and, let's face it, strange. One study showed that a psychotic personality traded better than anyone else. The reason? They had no emotional attachment to anything. Once the position was gone, gain or loss, they were on to the next trade. Of course, they had no friends or family. But, boy, could they trade. Therapy will help you down on those days when you're moving toward the psychotic or when you're about to have a nervous breakdown because the market just can't go any lower, and you're long too many positions. And yet it does.

There are more ways that real pros act on equipment they own. But that's an advanced course. These will serve you well as you continue your quest to become a better trader, make more money, and conquer your stress levels. It's not easy being a pro. In fact, it's so hard that very few professional traders last into their 40's or 50's. Probably because they focused too much on the hard liquor part of the business. Be forewarned
(Ted Allrich)

[vinay28]

No wonder. Psychotics are more likely to have paranormal powers!

[ajayhkaul]