iCharts Discussions

[rk_a2003]

The Psychotic Trader !

Where from you bring all these man?!

[psalm]

checkout the folloing links....very funny...


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Twain_effect

http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/Mark_Twain

[ajayhkaul]

[vinay28]

on a more serious note, I hope you guys have seen "A streetcar named desire" starring marlon brando, karl malden, vivian leigh and olivia deHavilland.

[ajayhkaul]

It is possible to be a market bull and an economic bear at the same time.

Consider "re-hypothecation": envision a scenario in which the underlying collateral has been rehypothecated between the various EU/US banks so many times that the actual value at risk may be more than four times the figures disclosed to the public to date.

Rehypothecated asset transactions are completely off balance sheet so it's exceedingly difficult to track what moved where and when. Worse, because of the lack of transparency, it's also very complicated to determine which firms - those stateside or those overseas in markets like the U.K. - hold the money.

This is legal - for the banks . It seems this leveraging is the reason for all the bubble growth !

Numbers ? in trillion USD

The world's entire central banking community is playing against you and will do everything it can to prevent a meltdown by sustaining the illusion granted to us by the rehypothecation process.

As the markets rise on the illusion of a fix or improving data or both, these things will explode when the day of reckoning ultimately arrives.

Why the markets rally is not important, that you capture profits as they do is.

It is absolutely possible to be a market bull and an economic bear.

[vinay28]

yes Ajay, it is a terible situation. I heard that actual value at risk may be 100 times disclosed. Probably explains why china is still buying european sovereign bonds. They seem to have bought heavily recently.

[rk_a2003]

That's the great paradox of the modern economy.

[ajayhkaul]

The re-re-re hypothecated underlying assets/collateral belongs to the public !

iski topi uske sar ! uski topi iske sar !

[ajayhkaul]

Bullish case by Mulraj

Indian Government has permitted foreign individuals, pension funds and trusts to invest directly into Indian equity. This could, if implemented properly, be a game changer and the harbinger of a bull run in Indian stock markets. More so if Chinese real estate implodes.

A tertiary benefit of this permission is that it may assist in round tripping of Indian money held abroad, which is now finding it increasingly difficult to maintain anonymity. Were this to happen, the bull could start running on Dalal Street much before it runs in Pampalona, Spain, in July.

If, on the other hand, Indian money is attracted back home, through the anonymity of a watered down KYC (know your customer) approach of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), as compared to Swiss banks, who are under the lens for greater scrutiny, then investors may be left lamenting 'yeh mauka na milega dubara'.

And bearish too....'If one believes that a European crisis will burst soon, then the market would collapse. The sensex level of 15,000 would then give way, and it could fall another 20%.'

[rk_a2003]

Yes! The permission could be a game changer provided the real investors found Indian Markets attractive and believes in the Indian economy growth.

Can this facility provide a round trip to the black money? Quite possible .It’s rather easy finding an individual than an institution? It was said that Indian money in Swiss banks already found there asylums. It’s quite possible that the same money chose this route to flow back to India.

In fact it could be a master stroke of those powers to influence this decision before an effort by the governments was made to get back black money from Swiss banks due to ever growing mass pressure.

Strange …..There will be a strong possibility of bullish run as well as bearish run. But even the money seeking asylum may seek an opportune time.

[vinay28]

for the majority (probably more than 99.5%), there are many reasons for market to fall further. For the remaining minority, there are many conjectures for market to go up.

The question is - will those conjectures prove right?

Irespective of the above, what seems likely to me is that, as posted earlier, the period between last week of dec to second week of may is very important. It may "cause" events (political, economical, cultural, natural, etc.), which may affect the lives of peoples, societies and countries. Perhaps even unimaginable effects. If they are good for the majority, nothing like it. If they are bad.................

[Padkondu]

[ajayhkaul]

Thanks to great contributions from Vinay and RK!

Trading tends to be 'minding ones own business' ie a lone battle.

Caring and sharing will help us all be better traders.

Welcome padkondu ... we look forward to your inputs .

[ajayhkaul]

Are you foxed by the Bulls and the Bears as a break out trader? Here is a guide for all the techies out there : Happy Trading !


Market tells you a lot from the way breakouts work.-- aka Market Palmistry !!!

If breakouts do not have immediate follow through it indicates weak conviction. Many breakouts fade by end of the day.

Similarly if you see breakouts to new high getting sold , it indicates distribution by larger players.

If you see only late stage stocks breaking out it indicates tired market unlikely to make big move. This is the case currently - new leadership is lacking?

If you see large stocks breaking out and making moves it indicates funds are seeking safety. Large caps have been leading recently?

If you see beaten down stocks dominating breakout list it indicates lack of conviction and short term commitment by funds.

If you see stocks after stock that made big move in last 2 year getting in to trouble and having hard breakdowns, it indicates distribution.

In an environment like this unless you are a day trader your primary concern should be risk management.

Your total risk exposure to the market should be at level where if things turn sour you should be able to get out with minimum damage.

A real bull market lasts months and offers several opportunities. So if it shows up( a breakout traders edge) you will not have trouble finding setups and make big money if you have thought through your setups

[vinay28]

the "techie" in you has spoken, Ajay.....words of wisdom!