iCharts Discussions

[codered]

Kudos to Ajayji

[ajayhkaul]

Thank you Guys ! Your feedback is precious.

[vinay28]

Ajay, sorry I am not well and so could finish reading all your posts only now. I don't have much to offer except salute to your write-ups. Still, here are my two bits:

Not withstanding whatever we know, the bad period for Buffet, US and other arrogant entities has begun. This is scary because, inspite of Iraq and Afghanistan wars proving old beliefs wrong in a changing and more intelligent world (i.e. a war is the last and best resort to boost economy), we are facing a possible Iran attack. This can explode beyond managable situation for the world.

And China is clearly worried. Any rise in their currency against dollar, will slash value of their holding of US bonds. Good, let all bastards sink together.

[ajayhkaul]

Hope you have recovered by the time you read this.

Thank you for your interest and kind words re the blog.

[ajayhkaul]

Gold... Gold ......Gold ....?

Created On: 30/11/2011 00:59:01
As the stock market volatility is driving people crazy, the chartists have turned to astrologers and retail investors have become very religious , here is a possible scenario that the trader may wish to consider .

Isn't it true that there is always a bull market somewhere especially if bearish postures don't work for you ?

"......Right now, there seem to be three possible scenarios for the euro zone that we can see and all will be bullish for gold.

If the European Central Bank will begin start buying euro-zone bonds on a massive scale, printing money to the tune of trillions of euros to do so, the massive amounts of money flooding the market will inevitably push the price of gold up.

If, on the other hand, the euro zone falls apart, one does not need much imagination to foresee the chaos that will ensue. Using the word “chaos” will be an understatement. Each country will have to introduce new currencies along with stringent capital controls to stop money from fleeing the country. Banks will collapse. We’re talking mayhem.
This is the kind of pandemonium that would be a boon for gold. For awhile, gold could become the only credible currency left standing.

A third possibility is that the current mess with a flavor-of-the-week euro zone crisis will drag on for a few more years. Last week Mario Monti was selected to form a new Italian government. Monti, who is known in the Italian press as “Super Mario,” will have to face heroic challenges as he tries to steer his country from the brink of economic disaster.
Whatever the most recent crisis, and they seem to appear at an alarming rate of about one a week, gold should also flourish in that environment as investors lose patience and confidence in fiat currencies.

What’s the most likely outcome ? First the third possibility, then a mix of third and first one, which will ultimately lead to the second scenario – however it seems that it would take years for this stage to be reached.........."

The low interest rates for the dollar also is bullish for Gold .

But the master trader waits .... just like the Ole turkey buzzard ... waiting for something below to die.....

.....Men will do anything for Gold...... Gold Gold Gold ........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIc092z1Uag&feature=related


The Indian stock market is being propped up like so many markets around the world with rumors that appear conveniently at oversold levels !

Bonus time for the bankers ! The new Bugattis / Lamborghinis that hapless investors are paying for .

Well the year end is approaching fast..... Santa Claus rally ? January effect in December ?

Know your edge , the Casino is open for business !

[rk_a2003]

"The Indian stock market is being propped up like so many markets around the world with rumors that appear conveniently at oversold levels !"



Sometimes I wonder are such things orchestrated?! or a ‘natural’ phenomena to any market.

[ajayhkaul]

Now that the Ponzi banks stand exposed, their true colors can be seen by keen observers. Super Mario of Italy is ex Goldman Sach !

[vinay28]

That the gold is becoming a new craze was clear when it started going up along with stock market two years ago.

Looks like we will be back to the barter system.

[ajayhkaul]

You said it !

[ajayhkaul]

In view of the current scenario , here is a short story that says it all:

A politician was seated next to a prosperous farmer who was taking a nap on an airplane. He turned to the farmer and said, "Do you want to talk? Flights go quicker if you strike up a conversation with your fellow passenger."

The farmer, replied, "What do you want to talk about?"

"Oh, I don't know," said the politician. He smiled smugly. "How about the global credit crisis or stimulus packages?"

"OK," he said. "Those could be interesting topics. But let me ask you a question first."

"What's that?"

"A horse, a cow, and a deer all eat the same stuff—grass. Yet a deer excretes little pellets, while a cow turns out a flat patty, and a horse produces clumps. Why do you suppose that is?" the farmer asked.

The politician, visibly surprised by the farmers' intelligence, thought about it. "Hmmm, I have no idea," he said.

To which the farmerl replied, "Do you really feel qualified to discuss the global credit crisis or stimulus packages when you don't know s*it?"

And then the farmer went back to his nap.

This is a big part of the problem we face in "fixing" our economy today. Most of the people who are "in charge" of fixing it don't know anything about creating wealth because they have never done it. They have never risked their own money and time to start a business, and then work for eighty hours a week to grow it into something that employs hundreds or even thousands of people.

Politicians succeed by making promises, not profits. Unfettered by the constraints of experience, they are free to say the stupidest things. But if politicians were the only people giving out bad economic advice, I would worry less. After all, most sensible people understand that politicians can't be trusted.

But what about all the other people who dish out economic, financial, and wealth-building advice—the brokers, bankers, best-selling authors, and talking heads on TV? Can you trust them?

I have my doubts.

Most of the bankers and brokers have a good working knowledge of the particular kind of work they do. Mortgage brokers know how to issue mortgages. Bond brokers know how to buy and sell bonds. Options brokers understand puts and calls, etc. But knowing how to execute a particular financial transaction doesn't mean you know how to create wealth.

Here's the bottom line: don't rely on brokers, bankers, or other financial specialists to increase your wealth. It's not their job. They don't get paid for it. .......most of them have never created any real wealth and therefore don't know how to do it....there were always fees and commissions involved…and at the end of every year, you are always poorer.

To create wealth and achieve financial independence, you have to rely on the advice of people who have done so. Read what they have to say and then build your own plan.( adapted from M.Ford)

[vinay28]

Though not directly related, I would strongly advise all, particularly those who think traders (and all others) are fools, to see Peter Sellers' movie called "Being There", if you have not seen it already.

[sonila]

Mr. Ajayhkaul, very good and inspiring story.

[ajayhkaul]

thank you Mr Sonila .

[ajayhkaul]

Markets on Steroids - I

Created On: 05/12/2011 02:22:06
A bear market rally’s purpose is to lure investors back into the stock market.

On March 9, 2009 a Phase II bear market, often called a bear market rally, started.

That bear market rally has been going on for months due to the QE1 , QE 2 .The government and Fed are fighting the bear tooth and nail…and that’s why this bear market rally has lasted so long.

Note that almost all stock market charts look the same across the world and one can see the rises coinciding with QE1 and QE 2. The markets started to slide whenever they stopped the stimulus ie after QE1 and then the recent slide at the end of QE2.

A bear market rally ends when investors have reached the point where they believe the stock market is a safe place to invest again—we’re not there yet; too much pessimism reigns.

A Phase III bear market, the final phase, tends to bring stocks back to their original lows reached at the end of the Phase I bear market.

Coordinated central bank action aimed at providing liquidity to Europe by essentially making an unlimited amount of U.S. dollars available to the global financial system means anything ...
It means that your Federal Reserve will stop at nothing to bail out Europe’s economy, the value of the dollar plunged more than 2.3%.


The People's Bank of China has cut its required reserve ratio for the first time in about three years. This is clearly an admission of sorts that they're not comfortable with the slowdown in their industrial and real estate markets.

After a generation of frivolous spending and piling up unimaginable debt, inflation (and lots of it) is the only way out.

But it's a political solution to a monetary problem. Central bankers know easy money won't solve the crisis. But their hands are tied; it is the only solution that will give their bosses an easy way out.


The bankers (who most of us just found, to our shock and horror, really do rule the world) traditionally need a strong December/January to move money around, mop up unused pension funds, and clean up balance sheets. And then pay themselves their typically outrageous year-end bonuses. So they are motivated.

The nifty slid to 4640 amid draculean calls of the bears . The impact of the coordinated Banks action put the market on steroids so 5300 is likely, looking at the momentum . ...the Santa Claus rally as blogged earlier .

Breaking and settling above 5300 is another story...

Meanwhile ..... Australian economy has become quite the satellite economy for China. While Australia is not on the verge of collapse, far from it, its heavy exposure to China will likely cause a readjustment in the Australian dollar.

Here's why ...Iron ore and coal account for 39 percent of Australia's exports. And China imports 70 percent of Australia's iron ore exports. Since the steel sector is highly exposed to a slowdown in China, that could easily lead to a reduction in demand for Australia's iron ore.

And while all the world markets shot up , the chinese did not? Wonder why .....?

tbc...

[vinay28]

Good one Ajay. Keep adding to it. Let me give my two bits of a layman

1. Everyone was bearish, screaming since October that markets will crash to 4200, 3900, etc.

2. Fed kept on printing more dollars but dollar has only gone up in recent times. Rate (and inflation) differential between US and India is vast and can only reduce because, at some stage in coming months, US will have to start increasing their rates and India will have to start reducing them and US-Rupee rate (and Dollar Index) will fall.

3. India is not doing anything about dollar-Rupee rate rise because, reportedly, black money in swiss banks will come in next year, adding a lot to our coffers at higher rate. Good for election funding too.

4. A lot of bills are expected to be passed in the next couple of months, which will be market friendly, although they will show results later.

5. The whole world is in deep shit with India and probably china doing better. Europe and other developed countries are worse off than US. Downturn in economy all over the word means commodities may come down. Where will all the money go if not to India and china?

6. Since markets always move on future guidance, we may have a rally that takes us beyond 5300. First for generating higher NAV by Dec. end and then for discounting future.

7. A stage will come when every one is bullish and will start screaming for a new high. AND then ...........

Think about it. Experts are already talking about oil reaching 160-180 $ a barrel in future. Best to be alert and keep fingers crossed. Up or down, surely turbulent months ahead.