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Butterfly Pattern |
manu_5123454
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Joined: 22 Oct 2009
Posts: 91
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Post: #31  Posted: Fri Aug 23, 2013 12:57 pm Post subject: |
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soumya, according to ur Bullish Butterfly pattern seems bullish but question is how far ? after broken down from strong trendline near 5700 levels in weekly chart seems -- start of downtrend .Before free falling, short term needs a pull back kind of rally then bearish.
If u see in short term ,there is nothing kind of bullish pattern so need to be a bullish kind of pattern in daily chart then could be see a pull back rally , i hope nifty may be bottom out near 5100-5130 levels .
here i think bullish butterfly pattern may not calculate from this levels due to --price is trading below longerterm upward trendline . |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #32 Posted: Fri Aug 23, 2013 1:02 pm Post subject: |
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| I have got butterflies in my stomach. |
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sureenderkalra
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Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #33 Posted: Fri Aug 23, 2013 1:39 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | I have got butterflies in my stomach. |
In my stomach too.
The move beyond 5464 negates my abcd pattern and any kind of bearish butterfly pattern in short term chart. |
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sureenderkalra
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Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #34 Posted: Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:26 pm Post subject: |
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| sureenderkalra wrote: | | apka wrote: | | I have got butterflies in my stomach. |
In my stomach too.
The move beyond 5464 negates my abcd pattern and any kind of bearish butterfly pattern in short term chart. |
Nifty could not hold above 5464. yes it has moved 1 point more than this no. the way nifty has moved down from this no. It make my bearish view stronger. In fact, 5464 is .886 of AB.
Nifty moved smartly today. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #35 Posted: Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:39 pm Post subject: |
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| sureenderkalra wrote: | | sureenderkalra wrote: | | apka wrote: | | I have got butterflies in my stomach. |
In my stomach too.
The move beyond 5464 negates my abcd pattern and any kind of bearish butterfly pattern in short term chart. |
Nifty could not hold above 5464. yes it has moved 1 point more than this no. the way nifty has moved down from this no. It make my bearish view stronger. In fact, 5464 is .886 of AB.
Nifty moved smartly today. |
but what if it goes up again to make higher high(s)? |
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sureenderkalra
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Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #36 Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2013 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | sureenderkalra wrote: | | sureenderkalra wrote: | | apka wrote: | | I have got butterflies in my stomach. |
In my stomach too.
The move beyond 5464 negates my abcd pattern and any kind of bearish butterfly pattern in short term chart. |
Nifty could not hold above 5464. yes it has moved 1 point more than this no. the way nifty has moved down from this no. It make my bearish view stronger. In fact, 5464 is .886 of AB.
Nifty moved smartly today. |
but what if it goes up again to make higher high(s)? |
Nifty has negated abcd pattern. It has just closed above .886 of ab i.e 5464 while it should be around .786 ie. 5437.
As nifty has formed piercing pattern and it is itself considered a reversal pattern. Right now, nifty daily chart is holding 2 green candles followed by 1 big red candle piercing midpoint (50%) of red candle i.e. 5378. Piercing pattern’s low becomes a strong and major support for any security. I think so that nifty will not move below 5250 in near future and it seems butterfly pattern has also settled down its D pivot point at 5200 and made a reversal from there.
Kindly note that nifty has also crossed 34,5 ema moving average envelope and it makes me bullish on nifty now.
So one can buy nifty at or near 5403 above the bottom line of 34,5 ema moving average envelope and may sell below 5378. This is a midpoint of pierced candle.
Or
One can simply follow the bottom line of 34,5 ema moving average envelope. Buy above the line and sell below the line. In this, one may get some miss shot but at last he/she will be winner.
Nifty may still move down but upto 5378 if it moves & holds below this no., you should sell and in case it moves & holds above this no., you should buy. 5378 has become very important no. to make a decision.
Chart is attached.
I will post Potential Reversal Zone chart of nifty tomorrow. Please excuse me for today I have to leave right now.
Have a fun – filled weekend. |
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sureenderkalra
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Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #37 Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 12:47 pm Post subject: |
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I have posted a potential reversal zone chart of nifty (future) considering that butterfly pattern has set its D pivot point at 5200.
In this chart, I have clearly mentioned buy/sell points comprising with T1, T2 and T3 with reasons.
Hope it will be beneficial for all.
Happy Trading |
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manu_5123454
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Joined: 22 Oct 2009
Posts: 91
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| Post: #38 Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 4:55 pm Post subject: |
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Near 5100-5150 we should bottom out for short term . But question is this is the ABC wave or 5 wave pattern . if 5 wave pattern is there then we should move to sit on more bearish side ( may be near 4000 levels by mid of 2014 year). Daily chart indicates one fall should be there till 5150 levels to completing of entire falling line .
But my view says --after broken down from 5700 levels which is the strong and strong upward line indicates Bearish should be continued
Weekly bullish candle, continuous 5 weeks selling as well as 5 wave falling pattern in daily chart are indicating short term bottom out must be there .
[Content Edited by Admin] |
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sureenderkalra
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Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #39 Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 8:42 pm Post subject: |
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| manu_5123454 wrote: | Near 5100-5150 we should bottom out for short term . But question is this is the ABC wave or 5 wave pattern . if 5 wave pattern is there then we should move to sit on more bearish side ( may be near 4000 levels by mid of 2014 year). Daily chart indicates one fall should be there till 5150 levels to completing of entire falling line .
But my view says --after broken down from 5700 levels which is the strong and strong upward line indicates Bearish should be continued
Weekly bullish candle, continuous 5 weeks selling as well as 5 wave falling pattern in daily chart are indicating short term bottom out must be there . |
First of all, thank you very much manu_5123454 for putting this aspect of nifty in front of us.
As far as Nos are concerned, I was almost of the same opinion before the piercing pattern formed. In fact. I was expecting nifty should at least move upto 5167 or 5152 before making a reversal. Now in daily chart, nifty is holding piercing pattern and weekly chart that you have posted, is holding a hammer. Both of it can’t be ignored.
Moreover I have placed a no. i.e.5378 one should be bullish above this no. or bearish below this no. That’s all. For the time being, I am bullish unless cmp doesn’t break and hold below this no. and it will take next 24 days only to achieve T2. I am too expecting 4400 at least on low side but after the break of UPA alliance. Parhaps it might be in Nov or Dec according to some news channel.
Market might go anywhere, whether up or down, breaking all the rules. We all have experienced it so many times. Right not, forgetting every rules, everyone should keep 5378 in his mind before placing any trade of nifty. |
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manu_5123454
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Joined: 22 Oct 2009
Posts: 91
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| Post: #40 Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:24 pm Post subject: |
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| sureenderkalra, this time i am also expecting to some kind of correction as like u upto 5350 but still is trading above my expectation which is 61.8% and 71.8% .But buying at lower levels will be a safe position instead to add at this levels. And USDINR also giving signal some kind pull back rally after completed 5 wave pattern in 1hr. chart |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #41 Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 10:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Just to stick my neck out - i believe your first 5 wave hypothesis [ 12345 to lower lower below 5250......... after hitting 'may be' 5550-5600].....TIME FACTORwould be critical ....for ABC to develop..there would need a "consolidaiton" for "months" around 5500 (+- 200- points]...while if it touches 5500-5600 etc and fall back rapidly, i would believe a 5 wave patern with 5 still pending down. |
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manu_5123454
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Joined: 22 Oct 2009
Posts: 91
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| Post: #42 Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 4:30 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty touched 5116 as i expected before ( near 5130) . and we got a ending digonal pattern in 1hr. chart but RSI is not giving a buying signal at this time . looks like a one more fall near 5250 then could see a rising pattern there . But still 5500-5550 is very good resistance area .
after completed 5 wave of C wave looks like a pull back rally but this rally should make as complicated wave rather than as smoothly. |
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sureenderkalra
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Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #43 Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 6:17 pm Post subject: |
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| manu_5123454 wrote: | Nifty touched 5116 as i expected before ( near 5130) . and we got a ending digonal pattern in 1hr. chart but RSI is not giving a buying signal at this time . looks like a one more fall near 5250 then could see a rising pattern there . But still 5500-5550 is very good resistance area .
after completed 5 wave of C wave looks like a pull back rally but this rally should make as complicated wave rather than as smoothly. |
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Yes manu_5123454, You were right and i too was expecting at least 5152 earlier before nifty made a reversal. I confess that piercing pattern in daily chart and hammer in weekly chart made me bullish for a while but thank god, i was with a no. i.e. 5378.
Kindly note here that Nifty managed to break out sliding line but could not hold above the sliding line that I am drawing from day one in my chart. [CHART ATTACHED]
Today, Nifty has managed to break out and hold above the sliding line. I feel it may move down again and touch or move slightly below then move above the sliding line to confirm the bullish trend. Yes I agree, It may touch 5250.
I am expecting nifty should touch 5556 in coming days. This is B pivot point of butterfly pattern. Yes we will be ready to face resistance around 5500 -5550 and fast movement of nifty, 150 points+, next day 170 points down. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #44 Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 6:33 pm Post subject: |
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Dear Manu & Surender,
You both are assuming that 5 has ended. Can it be that 5 is a complex corrective which are continue down to 4900 etc - pattern target of H&s break.........this can be confirmed if 5550-5560 whereabouts are not crossed.
also I believe BULL MARKETS do not become bear and vice versa so quickly so it is FUTILE TO EXPECT LOW IS MADE and even if Nifty travels to 5600-5700, it is still a BEAR [LONG TERM FOR POSITIONING]....5750 -5770 has to be crossed decisively to confirm a BULL trend.
so i would expect range action ...sell near 5550-5600 and buy around 5100, break of previous range of 5550-6100.
the point is not to get BULLISH AT 5600.... |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #45 Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 6:45 pm Post subject: |
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The best way to judge end of a trend is on weekly charts, because with Indexes like Nifty it tends to stay for few months. It's visible historically on charts, before start of uptrend, consolidation patterns + pos div in weekly indicators.
And any strong downtrend needs consolidation, all bounces in between will result in a retest of previous lows which is when consolidation will occur once selling at those levels start reducing. Pehle shaanti uske baad kranti. At the moment, volume bars are big. FNO turnover is big. Technically we should go further down. Yesterday we were at 5120.. today 5410. This is not a bull market presently, so just a passing by bear rally. |
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