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Butterfly Pattern |
rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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Post: #46  Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 6:49 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | The best way to judge end of a trend is on weekly charts, because with Indexes like Nifty it tends to stay for few months. It's visible historically on charts, before start of uptrend, consolidation patterns + pos div in weekly indicators.
And any strong downtrend needs consolidation, all bounces in between will result in a retest of previous lows which is when consolidation will occur once selling at those levels start reducing. Pehle shaanti uske baad kranti. At the moment, volume bars are big. FNO turnover is big. Technically we should go further down. Yesterday we were at 5120.. today 5410. This is not a bull market presently, so just a passing by bear rally. |
Apka,
How do you fit your "Shanti" with a saying that "Tops and bottoms are formed violently". |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
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| Post: #47 Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 7:06 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | apka wrote: | The best way to judge end of a trend is on weekly charts, because with Indexes like Nifty it tends to stay for few months. It's visible historically on charts, before start of uptrend, consolidation patterns + pos div in weekly indicators.
And any strong downtrend needs consolidation, all bounces in between will result in a retest of previous lows which is when consolidation will occur once selling at those levels start reducing. Pehle shaanti uske baad kranti. At the moment, volume bars are big. FNO turnover is big. Technically we should go further down. Yesterday we were at 5120.. today 5410. This is not a bull market presently, so just a passing by bear rally. |
Apka,
How do you fit your "Shanti" with a saying that "Tops and bottoms are formed violently". |
I say that's true, but even that is followed by some moment of shanti. If there has been selling for 20 days, you would see stability fo 3-4 days. Figures like more accumulation, less red candles, no new lows, more deliverable % quantities in cash, etc. After when volatile movement happens, if the selling pressure goes away or subsides, you can say it is apart of consolidation. I don't think immediate reversal is possible when you have had weeks of selling. We need atleast 2-3 weeks of non-selling pressure at this point to consider the downtrend is coming at cease? This is my thinking.
Today when nifty was +135, Bank nifty was +145 only. Normally there is ratio of 4-6 times applicable between them. So bank nifty still acting weak, the one which broke all time high just few weeks back and yet is down. So, let us look at bank nifty in conjunction with nifty to determine the possibilities.
Edit: In addition to above, wherever you see downtrend reversal, mostly you will find white weekly candles followed by another one and vice versa for downtrend as far as I see for last 5 years. So lets see tomorrow whether this week's opening figure 5500 is crossed significantly or what. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #48 Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 7:51 pm Post subject: |
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now who is this shanti?  |
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apka
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| Post: #49 Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 7:55 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | now who is this shanti? |
It is comments of yours like these which make others name us as 'suitors'.
I have never been called in my life as a 'suitor', I feel weird and blank over it.
Ommmm shanti ommmm. |
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pkholla
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| Post: #50 Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:53 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | It is comments of yours like these which make others name us as 'suitors'. |
May be because you are suit-er, boot-er, tie-r! |
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apka
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| Post: #51 Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:03 pm Post subject: |
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edit
Last edited by apka on Fri Aug 30, 2013 7:28 am; edited 1 time in total |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
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| Post: #52 Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 1:20 am Post subject: |
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| It is only Mr Kholla who is taking me in right spirit.....pls i apologise to all if I have been misunderstood.....AMIT |
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apka
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| Post: #53 Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 7:32 am Post subject: |
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I have never interacted with you Amita and this was the first exchange of 'words' from your side to me.
And right Hollapk must have taken it in the right 'spirit'. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #54 Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2013 8:34 am Post subject: |
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calm prevails!  |
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sureenderkalra
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Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #55 Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 9:13 am Post subject: |
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| sureenderkalra wrote: | | I am expecting nifty should touch 5556 in coming days. This is B pivot point of butterfly pattern. Yes we will be ready to face resistance around 5500 -5550 and fast movement of nifty, 150 points+, next day 170 points down. |
As I have mentioned in my previous post that nifty should touch 5556. Nifty crossed 5556 but could not manage to hold above this point due to some selling pressure. If selling pressure continues and makes nifty to move down 5511 then selling pressure will definitely increase.
For selling point of view, one should sell nifty below 5511 using some filter. Nifty might move upto 5200 downward.
And, in case, you are interested to buy nifty at current price. you should wait for crossing nifty 5556 and hold above this. Nifty might move upto 5620 - 5645 on upward side. |
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sureenderkalra
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| Post: #56 Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 1:56 pm Post subject: |
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| If nifty fails to make lower than 5385 then it seems to me that buyers have stepped in and might push up nifty upto 5500 once again. |
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apka
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| Post: #57 Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 2:29 pm Post subject: |
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| sureenderkalra wrote: | | If nifty fails to make lower than 5385 then it seems to me that buyers have stepped in and might push up nifty upto 5500 once again. |
5572.00   |
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sureenderkalra
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| Post: #58 Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 2:34 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | sureenderkalra wrote: | | If nifty fails to make lower than 5385 then it seems to me that buyers have stepped in and might push up nifty upto 5500 once again. |
5572.00 |
Yes it doesn't stand out now. Nifty made a lower than 5385 |
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manu_5123454
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Joined: 22 Oct 2009
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| Post: #59 Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 10:15 pm Post subject: |
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Again we got a bearish candle near 5550-5600 levels area which indicates bearish should continue but i don't think so nifty should trade below 5100 levels which is a strong resistance area according to Fibonacci analysis . As i told before we will make a complicated kind of pattern for 4th wave . In this levels if u see on RSI there is nothing kind of bearish pattern that means nifty should stop near 30 levels of RSI , that will be positive divergence with a good support area levels according to Fibonacci
i am not a very bearish after touching 5100-5130 levels , yes i will be sit on buy side at that levels but buying action should be depends upon bullish candle on daily chart near 5100 levels.
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sureenderkalra
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Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #60 Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:06 am Post subject: |
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| manu_5123454 wrote: | Again we got a bearish candle near 5550-5600 levels area which indicates bearish should continue but i don't think so nifty should trade below 5100 levels which is a strong resistance area according to Fibonacci analysis . As i told before we will make a complicated kind of pattern for 4th wave . In this levels if u see on RSI there is nothing kind of bearish pattern that means nifty should stop near 30 levels of RSI , that will be positive divergence with a good support area levels according to Fibonacci
i am not a very bearish after touching 5100-5130 levels , yes i will be sit on buy side at that levels but buying action should be depends upon bullish candle on daily chart near 5100 levels. |
Nifty might reverse from any point now. I would like to mention here the 3 next points from where nifty may make a reversal.
First point is 5286. I feel, this is the point where the nos of buyer will be more than the nos of sellers who will step in the market. We might see here a tug-of-war in good spirit between the bulls and the bears. i hope that sellers will be able to break this point down to the second point.
Second point is 5210 and third point is 5163 - This is somewhere in between I am expecting nifty should make a reversal this time. On max. side is 5150.
I too think so that nifty should not make a new low this time and it should reverse from any point.
If nifty reverses without making a new low, it will move upto 5620 or to little high no. and it should achieve this point in 3-4 days not more than this. Please note I am not talking about 5556 this time. 5511 and 5556 might resist nifty to move further but i am not taking these nos as my target. |
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