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Butterfly Pattern |
hemant.icharts
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Post: #61  Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:11 am Post subject: |
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Dear Member,
Please abide by RULES & REGULATIONS of forum. Make sure charts posted should not have source(websites, software) mentioned on them.
| manu_5123454 wrote: | Again we got a bearish candle near 5550-5600 levels area which indicates bearish should continue but i don't think so nifty should trade below 5100 levels which is a strong resistance area according to Fibonacci analysis . As i told before we will make a complicated kind of pattern for 4th wave . In this levels if u see on RSI there is nothing kind of bearish pattern that means nifty should stop near 30 levels of RSI , that will be positive divergence with a good support area levels according to Fibonacci
i am not a very bearish after touching 5100-5130 levels , yes i will be sit on buy side at that levels but buying action should be depends upon bullish candle on daily chart near 5100 levels.
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sureenderkalra
White Belt
Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #62 Posted: Thu Sep 05, 2013 10:03 am Post subject: |
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| sureenderkalra wrote: | | If nifty reverses without making a new low, it will move upto 5620 or to little high no. and it should achieve this point in 3-4 days not more than this. Please note I am not talking about 5556 this time. 5511 and 5556 might resist nifty to move further but i am not taking these nos as my target. |
Yesterday, I was expecting that buying pressure might come at 5286 but it came at the opening bell and nifty made a low of 5319 only. The sellers could not overcome this buying pressure.
The market surged today and nifty gave a gap up opening as Mr Raghuram Rajan after taking charge as the 23rd governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday announced a slew of measures to benefit retail investors and revive the Indian economy.
By the way, my target of 5620 is achieved and on upper side I am looking nifty to touch 5727 only. And, Nifty may make a reversal again anytime between 5620 and 5727 or before 5758. This time nifty can make a new low if it reverses. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #63 Posted: Thu Sep 05, 2013 11:07 am Post subject: |
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| dont agree more... i have been writing likewise in Nifty Sep 2013 early and last night in Index Futures thread.... again i have placed sell orders at 5620-5675...if it bounces |
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sureenderkalra
White Belt
Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #64 Posted: Thu Sep 05, 2013 11:29 am Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | dont agree more... i have been writing likewise in Nifty Sep 2013 early and last night in Index Futures thread.... again i have placed sell orders at 5620-5675...if it bounces |
If both of us are calculating fibonacci levels from the same point. fibs will not give me different levels whether you have calculated the same before I. |
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manu_5123454
White Belt
Joined: 22 Oct 2009
Posts: 91
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| Post: #65 Posted: Thu Sep 05, 2013 12:40 pm Post subject: |
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| hemant.icharts, sorry i will take care before posting |
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sureenderkalra
White Belt
Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #66 Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:55 am Post subject: |
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When you follow any pattern, it requires your continuous thought process. And, sometime an unexpected movement make you think whether you are really on the right side of the business or not. Please let me clear what I am thinking right now about the next movement of nifty.
Actually, Nifty had been clubbing Bearish Gartley pattern with Bullish Butterfly Pattern since last few days. On this basis only, I was putting my comments. Now, the way nifty has put 2 green candles followed by a big red candle. This all has messed up everything and made me skeptical too to be on bearish side. The reasons behind doubting that nifty might make a new low from here are follows:
1. The gartley pattern has lost its symmetry due to the fast movement in nifty.
2.Nifty has reached at 5620 before time. Nifty should have kissed this no. on coming Monday.
To bearish traders, I will not suggest to sell at 5620 for a target of 4900. Yet it might move down to touch trend line. You may sell it for a target of 4900 when nifty breaks and hold below a trend line.
Or
You may sell it between 5727 and 5740 pre- defining your strict stop loss at 5761. Here you may lose few points but it has a great chance ( I repeat a word ‘chance’) to win you 200-300 points.
What is the probability at this time?
In fact, nifty is running on two way road and luckily, an intersection is nearby and it seems to most of the traders that it will take a U turn & make a new low. But there is a probability that nifty might go straight.
A lot of patterns are formed everyday and most of them are able to achieve their target but some of them ...??
That's why, I feel one should trade here very carefully.
Probability chart is attached. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #67 Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 9:11 am Post subject: |
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| 5761 is spot level? |
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sureenderkalra
White Belt
Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #68 Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 9:13 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | 5761 is spot level? |
No, it's a future level |
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sureenderkalra
White Belt
Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #69 Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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| sureenderkalra wrote: |
To bearish traders, I will not suggest to sell at 5620 for a target of 4900. Yet it might move down to touch trend line. You may sell it for a target of 4900 when nifty breaks and hold below a trend line.
Or
You may sell it between 5727 and 5740 pre- defining your strict stop loss at 5761. Here you may lose few points but it has a great chance ( I repeat a word ‘chance’) to win you 200-300 points.
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On 6th sept, Nifty moved up. I hope you would have not sold at 5620.
You may avoid my 2nd option this time since Trading of CNX Nifty futures on the Singapore stock exchange indicates that the Nifty might open around 5800 tomorrow. CNX Nifty futures on the Singapore stock exchange opened at 5725 and has made a high of 5783 by now so it will be better you avoid my 2nd option.
I will revert back to you tomorrow after the market opens. |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #70 Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 5:08 pm Post subject: |
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Hi
Just a query
Should we base our study on our charts or on SGX NIFTY.
I dont think so. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #71 Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 5:20 pm Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | Hi
Just a query
Should we base our study on our charts or on SGX NIFTY.
I dont think so. |
Keep track on both |
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manu_5123454
White Belt
Joined: 22 Oct 2009
Posts: 91
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| Post: #72 Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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i may be wrong at this point of time where i was thinking 5100 first then 5500-5600 to touch but it is trading above my thinking. But i am sure, this pull back is just of the mid term downtrend .First 2nd wave retraced near 78.6% of 1st wave ,again we got 61.8% retrace of second 1st wave that defines we could see a free fall kind of pattern below 4900 or it may touch 4500 levels after few months. yes we could see also a pull back kind of pattern but it willn't retrace above 38.2% .
so according to me nifty may not hold above 5700 levels on daily closing basis where multiple resistance is there.
sureenderkalra--i agree what u said |
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sureenderkalra
White Belt
Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #73 Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 7:36 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: | Hi
Just a query
Should we base our study on our charts or on SGX NIFTY.
I dont think so. |
Keep track on both |
As you know, Our some stocks are available on dow while nifty and some etf are available on SGX. it doesn't make any difference if these stocks and index are available on any other stock exchange. But it helps you to make your decision.
Our market is opened for 8 hrs only and it leaves 16 hrs for decision making whle the foreign market is open e.g. hong kong, singapore, sidney, london, usa. By tracking the same stock or index on other stock exchanges also, you get an even greater flavor of what is occuring with your money when our markets are closed.
By the way, SGX nifty has settled down at 5762.50. Let's see at what price will it be opening tomorrow. Our cnx nifty will follow the same.
Apka rightly said that we should track both. Yes it helps us to come to know at what price, nifty might open tomorrow. |
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sureenderkalra
White Belt
Joined: 11 Dec 2012
Posts: 174
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| Post: #74 Posted: Wed Sep 11, 2013 9:44 pm Post subject: |
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I posted a potential reversal zone chart on 25th Aug. I am posting it again and would like you should see this chart once again. In this chart, I mentioned that how .707 retracement becomes important when Butterfly pattern sits at 1.414XA making its D pivot point and reverse back. Secondly, I had mentioned that T2 and parallel line should touch each other.
NIfty made a reversal from 1.414XA and .707 retracement point of AD was 5908 which was kissed by nifty yesterday. Today the whole day, Nifty kept moving around 5908, some points up and some points down.
The second point which is T2 and parallel line should touch each other. Nifty failed to fulfill on this point due to volatility and gap up opening. Now I feel that nifty will move down after touching the parallel line of 1.414XA around 5960-5975 and retraced back and kiss the line at .707 ratio. This is just my opinion, not a hard & fast rule of butterfly pattern.
This chart is also attached. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #75 Posted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 1:22 am Post subject: |
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Right. Just to add on this thread that 5950 is a .78 / .73 resistance of 6300-4500 something + 2 top trendline meet at 5780 something + 5950 - 5980 is inverse H and S target + 600 points movement in nifty (when it was earlier in trading range from 5500-6100 and no fall from 6100 etc) also meets 5950...
So 5 TAs acting as resistance (including your butterfly) hence 5950-5975 is stiff resistance NIFT SPOT. ..since we need to give small leeway for trading, we can keep 6020 as high in THIS (not after reaction) uptrend... |
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