iCharts Discussions

[pradeepgolfer]

nifty maybe the safest but not exciting, positional long because the trend remains up but the volatility will not scare you out or require a large stop

Stop of below 5300 or 5345 may be used.

[ridinghood]

any tgt in mind?

regs

ridinghood

[pradeepgolfer]

maybe 5800 this month

Only major resistance is 5545 then nothing till all time high.

[ridinghood]

nifty at 5800 this month really!!!

thnx

regs

[pradeepgolfer]

Stranger things have happenned in my 15 years of trading

[ridinghood]

cant agree more!!!

anything is possible here!

[pradeepgolfer]

The corelation between all markets has become less because markets are at higher levels.But Indian fundamentals are good and Indian markets have been hugely outperforming other markets.There is no reason for this outperformance to stop.
Indeed in these days of high speed information flow, this can only increase since underperforming fund managers will lose their jobs.This is the reality.Expect FII flows to increase.

[pradeepgolfer]

DOW closed flat so nifty outperformance and uptrend will continue.

[ridinghood]

pl do keep updating like this for nifty long position

[pradeepgolfer]

ridinghood
Yes I will continue to give my views.
I am grateful for your encouragement.

You can hold your positional longs without fear- do not day trade when ranges are so small.

[ridinghood]

pg

thnx for ur kind words

for the first time after 4 sessions nifty made LL at 5431 nd HH at
5472. should we gte cautious or was it just the weekend phenomenon?

regs

ridinghood

[pradeepgolfer]

let us wait for dow close and then we can decide-will post over the weekend.

Thanks

[pradeepgolfer]

A positional trade, with a stop of below 5349 SPOT or better below 5300 SPOT, is a low risk one. All positional shorts should be reversed above 5487 (5484 NF level).

THE REASONS ARE GIVEN BELOW:

The chart is of NIFTY SPOT WEEKLY.

Notice first that the pivot marked A,5298.85,(5271, NF level) has been providing resistance to the nifty upmove, from October 2009 to present time.Once the NIFTY crossed the pivot high marked C,(5165 NF level) there was an immediate reaction down.Again, when NIFTY crossed the pivot marked D,(5303 NF level), there was a similar reaction which,however, made a higher low.THe Nifty again crossed the pivot high marked E,(5398,NF level) but this time, there was no reaction but a tight trading range, of 4 weeks, around the pivot point marked E, resulted.
Note this trading range has been above the weekly pivot A, for four weeks.This weekly pivot A, has provided resistance to the NIFTY for 9 months.
This is a fact,not an opinion or gut feel.This trading range is an abrupt departure from the behaviour of the NIFTY during the 9 months, preceding July.

I can only suggest two reasons for this happening.The sudden disappearance of downward reactions, suggests that the bears have withdrawn from the market and stopped the aggressive selling, evidenced earlier.THe second reason, is that the bulls have absorbed the agrresive selling, which has led to a trading range.The first reason suggests downward risk is limited to the extent of the trading range low.The second reason suggests that the bulls are in control and opens up the possibility of significant upside leading to an eventual test of all time high.

A retest of the 5349 level is technically possible, though the Dow recovery and closing well ofF the lows, makes it a very low probabilty event.But I cannot rule it out totally.

A clear break of the NIFTY SPOT LEVEL OF 5300 WILL SET UP A TEST OF THE 4700 LEVEL ON THE SPOT.

The DOW on the weekly charts has had a weekly close near the high of the week above the weekly pivot high of 10594.20.The next weekly pivot high is 11258.Since the DOW, has been up the last 4 weeks out of 5, a test of that high is highly probable in the coming weeks.
The DOW on the daily charts, on Friday, recovered 138 points off the low,in spite of very bad news, clearly indicating DOW is in strong hands.A test of 10920 is, therefore, a high probaility or even a certain one.

[pradeepgolfer]

Nifty should conclusively break 5487 today so hold all longs.Do not consider booking profit on long postions.

The money is not in the thinking it is in the waiting-Jessee Livermore