iCharts Discussions

[pradeepgolfer]

If anyone wants the reasoning, behind why these calls were given, a full explanation with charts, will be given on request.This is because Mandy commented in SB and I quote "why the hell should anybody read your posts in the forum"
My views are free I do not benefit and they require a certain amount of effort and time.

COPPER is maintaining it's orderly and rhythmic uptend and yesterday's intraday fall is an opportunity to buy copper near it's swing low.A very strong buy with possible target for intraday 347.5 and a positional trade target of 350.70 achievable by tuesday 1O August. It is possible, a down opening will occur today and any decline is to be bought with a stop below 338.9.A very good stop would be 337.9

CRUDE is also in a uptrend but unlike copper crude, does have the habit of choppy and sometimes violent fluctuations.A positional trade can be entered in crude with a stop of below 3740.It is quite possible crude will test 3753 and buy close to that level would be a good buy even for intraday.A positional trade target of 4050 is acievable in the short term of around 5-8 trading sessions

GOLD may be bought above 18050 especially if it gaps up.With stock markets low volatility suggesting to many people a possible medium term top, a shift into gold by jittery or risk averse investors, is quite likely.Gold can be bought with a stop of 17930 or 17890 with a positional trade target of 18535 and an intraday target of 18390

SILVER is in a sideways mode.Avoid

ZINC is in an uptrend and can be bought with a stop of below 95 for a target of above 98

LEAD overextended. AVOID

[sherbaaz]

[pradeepgolfer]

Sherbaaz
Thanks for the encouragement and PT ST are right on the ball-they are very alert.You are right leave it to them

[pradeepgolfer]

COPPER.
Because of the stength of the uptrend has taken it too far too soon, it is in a consolidation on all intraday time frames and the daily.Weekly and monthly remain not surprisingly still up.
It should restart it's uptrend very soon.A positional trade is strongly recommended
COPPER fell on friday because of very bad news but did not break the stop of 337.9.Copper remains a strong buy-more so on any decline- with the same stop of 337.9, for both intraday and positional trades.Near term targets can be 347.5 and 350.5.Postional tragets are 365,395

NICKEL
is in a uptrend and can be bought between 1015 and 1010 with stop of 1005.

Silver
is in a trading range in all time frames except 5 min.A buy can be made with a stop of below 28871.However it is not a advisable to buy when only one tf is in buy mode.Targets are 29400 for intraday,and 32000 for a positional trade.This is not a trade I would take because copper is in a very stong uptrend but if a trader would be trading only in silver it is trade well worth taking.

CRUDE
is at the top of the weekly range it has been in from July 2009;This indicates that the fundamentals of crude have not changed and traders are happy playing around in a range.
The lower end of the range is 3175.Interestingly, the stock markets have also been consolidating, on the weekly time frame,during the same that crude has been ranging.This indicates crude may breakout from it's ranging, if stock markets break out on the upside, which is a matter of time.This is a risk factor that all crude bears must be cognisant of and be very alert for.
On the daily crude has been moving up in a low momentum uptrend and has hit overhead supply.
Crude's trend is down in all intraday timeframes except 60 min.A move below 3688 will change the 60 min trend to down.
THe top of the trading range is 3820.AGGRESIVE TRADERS can take a positional short position with a stop of 3820.
on the 5 min to 15 min crude has become oversold and a pullback is expected;this can be sold into with a stop of 3780.Sell as close as possible to this level.It is a no risk trade for intraday since 3780 is a major supply zone and crude will not cross this level at one try.I expect crude to pull back to 3754 and a sell at this level is at least a very high probailty trade.

ZINC
is in a consolidation on daily and intraday timeframes, with a lot of overlapping swings which shows both bulls and bears are equally active.However, it appears bulls have the upper hand because of the higher lows.
Zinc gapped above the last pivot point at 90 and now has come against the next pivot high of 97.15.Any gap up can be bought.If there is no gap up it can mean that bulls are not yet confident and not fully in control.If there is no gap up expect a bear "test" attack.
THe 60 min stop is below 96.15,the 5 min stop is at 96.90 or at 97.05 or if a tight stop is needed 97.35.The stop for a positional trade is below 95.

GOLD
has begun an uptrend in all intraday timeframes.On the daily it is in pullback mode and has run into a minor supply zone;the major supply zone is at 18550.It is advisable to book half the postional trade quantity at this level.
Recommended 60 min stop is below 17950 or 17805.It will be very costly for the operator to attempt a stop run to below 17805.
A retest of 18000 is possible because on daily charts gold is in a pullback mode and a gold can be bought around 18000 with a stop of 17805.Unless the short term trend changes,a stop below 17805 will not be triggered.

FRIENDS I HOPE YOU FIND THESE INSIGHTS USEFUL I try to analyse more commodities as time goes on.If you have a favourite commodity not on the above list please request me to add it.I will try to oblige.
Take care.

[pradeepgolfer]

Yesterday was a quiet day for many commodities.This was not surprising since stock markets are breaking out.Major traders and FIIs trade in all markets so there might have been some rotation out of commodities into stock markets.Commodities have done well while stock markets have been ranging.

COPPER
is now in downtrend in 5 min time frame and fallen yesterday with increased volumes on the downside.This suggests that a test of the previous trading range low of 339 is almost certain.This is supported by market structure which is suggesting a target of around 337.This should finish the corrective move in copper.The stop should be lowered to below 337 as this should be a stop running move, which normally occurs, before a high momentum rally takes place.Any fall to around 338 should be bought with a stop of below 337.

GOLD
has run into resistance and a retest of the 17800 level is quite likely-with stock markets firming up it is prudent to wait for this test and watch to see if it is sucessful.

CRUDE
has run into major resistance on the intraday time frames and the level 3770 to 3800 is a major supply zone.A retest of the 3700 level is almost certain.A retest can also be in the shape of a tight trading range.Since crude is in an uptrend in the 60 min time frame,this will attract positional traders and any shorts should be for intraday only.
Crude has been making big swings up and down,while maitaining a uptrend.This shows both bulls and bears were equally active, but bulls are a little more in control.Wait for clear indication that any one side has taken clear control.I expect the bulls to increase their hold over crude since stock markets have broken out.Evidence of bull accumalation may be a decrease of volatility for at least a day.This would also show the bears are not aggressive.


ZINC

On the daily chart zinc has been encountering overhead supply resulting in a lot of overlapping bars for the last five trading days.However the previous days low has not been broken for 5 days in a row.This indicates overhead supply has been absorbed by the bulls.They are prepared to absorb supply only for one reason:much higher levels are expected or will be engineered.All lower levels can therefore be expected to be supported strongly.

on the 5 min tf yesterday bulls asserted their control in the opening bar itself.Zinc can be bought with a stop of below 97.95.The stop is a small one.A slightly larger stop is 97.35.
Because the bulls are so strongly in control positional trades can be entered with a stop of below 96.15.

NICKEL

is in a strong uptrend and can be bought with a stop of below 1048.This same stop may be used as a trailing stop to protect profits

[pradeepgolfer]

GOLD
there are only buyers in gold-bears are staying away.It is in uptrend in all time frames.
STRONG BUY; STOP levels in near month contract are below 18161 18155,18136.

Copper
is down in all time frames,except 60 min,daily.It can be shorted with a stop above 340.15.Target of 336 335.10,333.90.
For positional traders a buy is recommended with a stop of below 333.7.Buy on decline accordingly.
In case of an opening above 340.15 buy with a stop below 338.5

NICKEL
BUY with stop of below 1031 1026

CRUDE
Crude is down in all time frames except 60 min so buy on big declines-it may break 3692 but it is a buy for a positional trade target above 4000

[pradeepgolfer]

market opening update on COPPER:BUY COPPER WITH A STOP OF 337.9
positional trade targets are 347.3 350.5 363.80

[pradeepgolfer]

buy copper sl modified to 335.5

[pradeepgolfer]

market- copper- update

copper targets very likely to be hit;347 350.50 353.35

[pradeepgolfer]

Commodities which I track continued their consolidation and technical analysis is interpretation of observations.I do not give support and resistances or any levels because selling or buying can come at any time and there is no logical reason why supply or demand should only come at predesignated levels.Continuous monitoring is the only key to survival.
Copper gold aluminium and silver did not break their previous day's low.These may have bottomed out or close to bottoming out.


Copper
tested the previous days low 0f 335.75 and closed above it.It traded for 11 hours in a trading range of Re 1/-, after rejection from above the 20 ma in 60 min.Consequently, it failed in an attempt to break the previous day's low.A second attempt is usually made to test the resolve of those who try to protect a particular level.
But this may or may not come- an attempt can take the form of a trading range and false breakouts.
THe trend is up on daily and 60 min but down on all other time frames.

Copper can be shorted-sold-with a stop of 338.2 and target of 334.6.

Positional traders can go long with a stop of below 333.7 and take the position according to the price action during today.A price of around 335 should be a good level-see if any bottoming signs are visible.

CRUDE

Crude is near the top of it's trading range of over one year on the weekly charts so positional long positions cannot be suggested.

Stops for a short position can be above 3630,3636,3751,3784,3808.THe last two stops can be used for a positional short.

[pradeepgolfer]

BUY COPPER SL 335.15 TARGET 341 FOR INTRADAY

[pradeepgolfer]

ALL LEVELS MENTIONED ARE NEAR MONTH CONTRACTS. KEEP AN EYE FOR INTRADAY UPDATES WHICH I WILL POST WHEN NEEDED

GOLD
My buy call given on 9 August mentioneD 18550 has a major suplly zone and the closing is right at that level.The charts indicate some amount of distribution and I strongly recommend to exit all positions.
Do not enter countertrend-short- trades not because gold will not fall but because in a correction or consolidation the fall wil be slow.You can better employ your capital elsewhere.Also remember the purpose of trading is to make money and not to show how smart you are.

CRUDE
I again alert you to the fact that crude on the weekly charts is in a trading range (3820-3175) for over a year.In a trading range both bears and bulls are active and so crude has been swing widely, in both directions, on the intraday charts.On 9 August I had suggested aggressive traders can positionally short crude with a stop of 3820.

Yesterday the volume in crude was the highest in 5 weeks.Please note volume is the number of contracts transacted and the question that must be asked, is why these transactions are taking place.Such a high number of transactions can,in my opinion, only be made by big players.Big players are absorbing the supply.This will slow down the momentum, but not stop the fall, since big players will want to buy as much as they can at low levels, before engineering a rise and small players will come out in numbers, to take advantage of the trend.
The mid point of the range is 3500 and that is the level I expect crude to bottom out since stock markets are showing signs of not collapsing and crude has been having a positive co relation with stock markets recently.
Bottoming out does not happen in a hour and can take days-in copper it took 20 trading hours.
So what is the trading strategy best suited for the above situation.All dips musts be used to cover short positions.Do not take intraday positions because momentum will be decreasing.Experienced players may watch for bottoming signs and take very small positional longs-do not initiate more than 20% of your normal position size today.Novices should wait for my updates and calls.

COPPER
Yesterday's short call target of 344.6 was not reached and the low of the day was 335.05.There were no price signs of bottoming out and the breakout below the congestion zone between 336.5 and 338, along with the breaking of not only one, but two day's low,was a well thought out and enginneered trap for the bears.
Why did I give a positional long call for coppper, in the morning update, at what was later known to be the day's low?
Starting from 10 August, every down bar was being made with less volume, than the previous down bar.This is known as volume divergence. That the number of transactions was reducing, was a clear hint, that big players were not interested in copper, during the fall.The volume increased noticeably from 2 pm on 10 August and the pivot low of 335.75 was made on high volume.The volume remained high from that time onwards to present.
The sudden rise at 9 pm to 339 has two purposes and succeeded in doing two things-it trapped the bears in and trapped the bulls out.
The stalling of the uptrend, at the well known resistance level of 339, is meant to give hope to the trapped bears, who will be tempted to add to their positions.Brokers and "analysts" will see this as an opportunity to sell at higher rates and give sell calls.If you are being given more advantageous prices by the market, it is wise to enquire why that is so.

This makes it clear that a long entry is to be watched for today.Buy on dips but accept that you cannot catch the low of the day.
STOP LOSSES are suggested at BELOW the mentioned levels:338.2,337.85, 337.5.There is one thing which I would like you to appreciate:since copper is just bottoming out,you should expect bear 'test' attacks which is supposed check the bulls ability and conviction to support their position.It is therefore advisable to put stops below the mentioned levels by at least 15 ticks.

SILVER
is in the middle of its 5 weeks trading range and the middle of a range, is the most dangerous place to trade.IGNORE.

NICKEL
is in a uptrend only in 60 min and down in all other timeframes but intraday shorting is better avoided, since the down target is not worth it.The expected down move can be used to enter a positional long with a stop of BELOW 989 AND A TARGET OF AT LEAST 1056

ZINC
can be bought for intraday as well as positional trades with intraday target of 97.45 and a positional target of over 100.
STOPS BELOW 95,94.50 AND 93.50. The last stop will not be triggered, unless the major short term trend, turns down

[dviveerbabu]

On the daily chart MACD and RSI are showing sell signals though the 7\21 EMA crossover has not taken place.
The shorter Time Frames Viz., 15m,30m n 60 mts are showing crossover of Moving Averages.
Can you explain the significance of this and give me supports and resistances for the day.

Thanks
Dviveer Babu

[pradeepgolfer]

buy lead with stop of 97.7 or 97.15 resistances 98.9 100.6

[pradeepgolfer]

I should say again that I am not writing this because I am an expert.I too am learning.Experts do not give reasons or try to make it an educational experience.This is to encourage traders to learn and analyse using simple but powerful techniques which do not depend on interpretation but on charts facts, which can be noticed on the chart itself.I make mistakes and yesterday was one mistake.However I try to recognise my mistake admit it and then make sure I do not make the same mistake again.


Yesterday I gave a reason why copper is bullish.Any or all of reasons do not give any monetary benefit,unless price confirms.Because of this,why not look at price alone.You cannot use any indicator, without price confirmation so, why use indicators? What is price confirmation? see this link http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/052905.asp

The analysis on copper yesterday was relevant to positional trading.Positional trading means staying in the security till the trend remains in force or till it gets too parabolic or climactic.Usage of weekly or daily charts for trend determination and 60 min for entry is good for positional trading.
I am realising it is not relevant to intraday trading:in intraday trading, the useful timeframes are perhaps 15min or 20 min, being used to gauge trend, while the 5 min can be used for entry and stops.

How to determine trend? In a particular trend if you can see it moving in one direction that is the trend.Trends are very easy to see and traders generally judge correctly the direction, of the trend.Most novices believe that if you know the direction of the trend, it is sufficient to make money- why then do 90% of traders lose money? Because they do not realise that position management is more important than knowing trend.
How to manage your position? If you cant measure it, you cant manage it-Ed Seykota An indicator is essentially a measuring device but it depends a lot on interpretation.Price pivots also measure or define a trend and it's turning points.A novice will find price pivots easy to grasp because there is no interpretation or experience needed to apply it.I suggest all novices and even experienced traders who want simplicity in their analysis to concentrate on price pivots.

I said my basic strategy is to define the trend as a series of higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows.Now a novice may wonder how to define a low or a high.A pivot high or pivot low is the best way.

what are pivots?

A calculated pivot, often called a floor trader pivot, is derived from a formula using the previous day's high, low and closing price. The result is a focal price level about which price action is likely to turn, either up or down.Calculated pivots represent potential turning points in price, while price pivots are actual historic turning points.

Price pivots are not calculated. The pivot is defined by the structural relationship between price bars. Price pivots form on all time frames, are building blocks of trend and provide objective entry and exit points for trading.

Everyone should read this about pivots here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/pivots.asp



COPPER
If copper opens around 338-338.5 or even higher-which I expect it to open- then the opening will be proof of the accumulation that I noticed taking place for the last 3 days.Remember, always wait for price to confirm your ideas or suspicions.If it opens below 335 then the bullish case may be questionable and we have to watch action during the day.


POSITIONAL TRADES
ON the 60 min charts since 30 July 9pm copper has not had a hourly close below 335.75.Yesterday the day's low was at 334.85 and the hourly close was at 335.65.These two ticks may not be significant.Volume divergence continues!!
The daily trend is strongly up and the daily pivot high of 334.8, was the low of Friday. This, in a strong trend, is often an area, where the consolidation, ends.
Positional trades can be held or initiated with a stop of below 333.7.The risk reward is very favourable because, if the daily pivot high provides support, then the rally should resume.Target is 353.

INTRADAY

The pivot is 338.5 and only if a higher high is made above this should longs be considered.This should be the stop for shorts initiated during the trading day.

ZINC
Very strong buy

Positional Trade
Buy zinc for a positional trade target 107 stops BELOW 93.8,93.10

Intraday
buy zinc target 98 stop BELOW 94.25, 93.85

LEAD
A positional long trade can be entered into with a stop below the low of thursday,94.7, with targets of 105,108 approx.