iCharts Discussions

[saikat]

Hello,

I have put a highly improbable (or is it?? ) topic name - so that you guys read it and comment



Regards,

Saikat

[krishnalko]

Hi! Saikat
I am here to comment
My reply is NO..NOT AT ALL
BUT THIS MAGIC CAN HAPPEN ONLY IN ONE CONDITION
As per normal historic evidences “genuine pull back rallies” can even touch or cross the previous high but such pull back rallies first make an attempt to break the previous low and then bounce back from there after breaking it nominally.
Such pull back rallies are genuine pull backs and have the potential to test even previous high and thus creating an “engulfing”.
Now if we study the yearly candles then it is very clear that 2008 candle itself was a “bearish engulfing” so chances are that this year mkt will be “inside”.
Two continuous “engulfing candles” are perhaps “rarest of rare”.
Still if I start thinking on this possibilities, I wud be the most surprised person on planet earth if mkt touches 6357.10 (previous high) and that too without a “genuine pull back rally”i.e. a pull back without trying for a new low..!!
Your example of 920 itself is the best evidence of above case when Nifty had breached 920.10 on lower side before making that “genuine pull back rally which took it to amazing highs..!!
Regards


[jimmie]

Posting the three Bear runs since Nifty inception.
Only difference is that i dont find consolidation in the 3800-3200 zone, while in the previous two bear runs every zone was covered with proper consolidation of candles.
Bull runs have not started from the lowest points but at the end of bear run, it tries to break the low n fails. Proabbly we did that this time also. Bull runs have started 4-6 months after the low was formed and prior to starting it, Nifty has tried to break the low. No wonder 2200 puts were at galore which failed horribly.

[pradyehv]

Hello Saikat...
nice post..the only assumption is low of bear market is already in place right ??

Prad

[saikat]

Hello,

Thanks KK for ur insight... see my chart has pulled you into forum again ....

Jimmie - I agree with your observation... Now one more thing I can add here - that is - after the failed attempt to break the low 2nd time, then when it takes out last pivot high - may be that time we can be more sure of a new bull run...

Like for 2000 case - when it took out 1100 around end of June 2003.

Now... we can surely say the same thing already done.
Nifty has indeed taken out last 2 pivots ( around 2960 and 3150 ) and strongly holding above.
And this happened after the 6th March low of 2525 - which we may take as a 2nd attempt to break the low. (Just remember though NF made a low of 2229 in October- still the weekly close was 2525 only).

Now remaining to see whether NF does some consolidation near 200 SMA or as jimmie has put - in between 3200-3800.....

Also remember 3800 is the 38.2% retracement of the total fall ( ie Jan 08 high to Oct 09 Low). So it is highly possible that we may continue this run upto 3800 - then pull back - allow 50 SMA to come up - re test that - then.. boom boom

Regards,

Saikat

[krishnalko]

Hi Friends
By definition a bull run means breaking previous high..and I am sure it does not mean previous day high but it perhaps means previous year high..for us previous year high/low was 6357.10/2252.75..our mkt has done nothing special in reference to previous year candle..current year candle has neither tried to break the bottom nor it is any where near to top and trying to break it..so it meabs it is still an inside candle till date..moreover 2007 low was 3555 roughly and this level should put stiff resistance and wud almost ensure that nifty does not cross it and dips back to fill the gap at 2550..!! ..with the help of RIL which has a GAP at 1075
Though I am highly bearish on mkt..But please do not trade for gaps..better to be with the ongoing short term trend..

[saikat]

Hello KK,

In my last post, by "may be that time we can be more sure of a new bull run" I actually meant " starting of a new bull run" Wasn't it implicit?

I too wish those Gaps are filled - as I am having an altogether different understanding of GAPS - to me they are now holes in the base of a potential bull structure How much do you like to build your new big Home on a field full of holes?? Not much I hope....

Regards,

Saikat

[krishnalko]

hi! saikat
your subject has attracted almost every bull and bear as it is important for both at this juncture when mkt is standing "midway"..
Important point to note is that why "they" leave such loop holes in the structure..by doing so they just leave some indication that what can be in store in times to come..somehow the pity is that "time" can not be accurately predicted like price.
I strongly believe that price analysis is science as it works on certain data which has been actually executed while time analysis is mere speculation..
So the core point is that we might be aware of some particular price level but then we never know that when it will come.. so better to keep trading safely as per current trend..