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Crude Oil Trader |
AMBY
Yellow Belt
Joined: 05 Sep 2014
Posts: 503
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Post: #226  Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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THANKS FOR CLEAR GUIDANCE ON CRUDE SELL. I WILL WAIT TILL CRUDE TO TOUCH PREVIOUS HIGH OF $62.57, SAME COINCIDES WITH 4208 IN INR.
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #227 Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:43 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | 3860 -3865 have acted as stiff resistance ..... Level mentioned few days back.
It may fall to 3775 (first target) and then 3735 if unable to clear tomorrow and if we have sideways action till 5-6 pm tomorrow.
If clears 3860 and if below 3900 before data in evening, then fall below 3860 shall mean again above targets.
if clears 3865 then 3925 can be touched...... Remaining above 3860 shall target 4030-4100 levels.
Just judgmental reasoning hence not any recommendation or advice. |
even if there is a rise to 3925 -3950 levels, expect it to fall back to 3860 levels.
there can be a 100 point rise and then same 100 point fall same day
can attempt shorts at 3920 -3930 levels....stop 3960. or buy at 3810-3820 levels in afternoon if reaches there......
closing price 3855 |
As exactly happening ... Stop given yesterday maintained high 3950. Booked part profit at low below 3898 and rest trailed to 3850. Let's see if 3870 comes
CMp 3905.
What's supprting crude rally
1) great fabulous inventory data ( minus or going down)
2) US dollar index weakness chart it has formed multiple tops.....( I think it supports Nifty as well indirectly!?)
3) rising Bond yields - how!?
4) falling rig counts weekly monthly |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #228 Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:53 pm Post subject: |
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Booked more cmp 3900 nominal stop 3830 revised
Can still rise to 4030 while maintaining. 3840-3860. Let's see |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #229 Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:24 pm Post subject: |
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Wow 3875. Done both up and down as predicted yesterday. 
Booked all since shall trade on "next trigger". Up or down as case may be
Navigating both up and down from 3630- 3950 levels. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #230 Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:01 pm Post subject: |
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| "lets see if 3870 comes"......till now low "exact 3870"....and has moved up to 3897....27 points. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #231 Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:29 pm Post subject: |
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If welgro was around his charts would have noticed a double critical failed breakdown level crude is trading at i.e. bearish
(there can be failure of 'failed break' which can be lethal on upside ie bullish)..... problem is it wants to meet monthly resitance at 4200-4400......and 3970 is one important level.....to cross.
A) near high of trendline (aleady broken) drawn from lows of 2700....yes 2700 not 3700
B) down trendline joining highs of 3882 (21-5-15) and 3933 of (2-6-15)...aprox....NOT cleared on way UP still
C) High of 4043 (6-5-15) and 3933 (2-6-15) : downtrendline BROKEN by gap up today........ AND prices at this level only currently CMP 3896
D) Up channel from lows of 3663 (on 5-6-15).... FALL back into channel has happened at CMP 3896........though it gave outside break in morning.
E) there is a big "diamond" sandwitched in between and it has broken UP bu closing at up breakout level yesterday.
(I personally don't consider this type upside break as great as I earlier commented to Opportunist diamond pattern remark and up break....Nifty still struggling to cross 8500-8600)
so all great JOINING areas price finds itself
WHY
because as per EW we have still to decide whether 2600 ongoing uptrend is 5 wave impulse or 3 wave correction.........move above 4030 most important to signify 5 wave impulse as at least as per ONE count.
so interesting times.........best traded for 1-3 days time frame, preferable 1-2.
read A, B, C, D above once more carefully and decide.......multiple opinions, multiple trades, "both sides" profitable....!!!
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #232 Posted: Thu Jun 11, 2015 3:06 pm Post subject: |
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CMP 3910......was good to book out yesterday.
It seems to be preparing for "upmove"......next week.....to depend upon price action till end of tomorrow.
wait |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #233 Posted: Thu Jun 11, 2015 7:00 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | CMP 3910......was good to book out yesterday.
It seems to be preparing for "upmove"......next week.....to depend upon price action till end of tomorrow.
wait |
See the intra day range and how it is moving up and down........inside day till now at important juncture and would all be left out and price zooming either u or down....'? But wait.
It can hit 3860 below , gather early shorts till 3830 and whip up again above 3900 beyond....it is showing bullish fervour for me but often inability to pierce top a day before can mean distribution.
CMp 3915
Now instead of slow action some vertical up and down spike shall come in a day or two....... |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #234 Posted: Thu Jun 11, 2015 8:56 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | CMP 3910......was good to book out yesterday.
It seems to be preparing for "upmove"......next week.....to depend upon price action till end of tomorrow.
wait |
See the intra day range and how it is moving up and down........inside day till now at important juncture and would all be left out and price zooming either u or down....'? But wait.
It can hit 3860 below , gather early shorts till 3830 and whip up again above 3900 beyond....it is showing bullish fervour for me but often inability to pierce top a day before can mean distribution.
CMp 3915
Now instead of slow action some vertical up and down spike shall come in a day or two....... |
From 3915 is has touched 3860 as mentioned let's see what happens next |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #235 Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2015 8:58 pm Post subject: |
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Next is also what's written
Struggling between 3830 ( low 3834 ) and 3860.
Now the last climax ....... Why do they not introduce OPTIONS in commodities .
Would have bought ATM Straddle just now. |
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AMBY
Yellow Belt
Joined: 05 Sep 2014
Posts: 503
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| Post: #236 Posted: Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:08 pm Post subject: |
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THERE WAS RUM OUR ABOUT OPTION IN COMMODITIES.
ANY UPDATE PLEASE. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #237 Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2015 9:13 pm Post subject: |
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Struggling still and interweaving at 3825-3845
As per one count it can continue for 2 more days OR week and half.
Just when everyone tires and stops watching crude and impulsive buyers sellers are shaken out in range..... It shall start its next journey.
Count weekly ups counts weekly sideways
It's a weekly Spike and Channel...... Then why not a up breakout ......!!!!!!
Cmp 3840 |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #238 Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:51 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | Struggling still and interweaving at 3825-3845
As per one count it can continue for 2 more days OR week and half.
Just when everyone tires and stops watching crude and impulsive buyers sellers are shaken out in range..... It shall start its next journey.
Count weekly ups counts weekly sideways
It's a weekly Spike and Channel...... Then why not a up breakout ......!!!!!!
Cmp 3840 |
As mentioned above crude now on verge of up breakout
Cmp 3909.
Was long since 3855 today. Holding 1/3 and Booked 2/3....... Can target 4030 in one go
At least in terms of time.... Move sideways complete...... If this bullishness today wanes this will be last whipsaw and a prolonged down move would start seems very unlike though. |
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AMBY
Yellow Belt
Joined: 05 Sep 2014
Posts: 503
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| Post: #239 Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:42 am Post subject: |
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PLEASE UPDATE YOUR COMMENTS AS CRUDE IS NOT ABLE TO CROSS 3940
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #240 Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2015 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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seems to give way.....bearish as per different systems...........however......harmonic can complete at 3706 and upmove may start.......3625 support can very well hold.....and it can be weekly / monthly sideways still...............cmp 3720.....
much depends on Greece result.....inventory data coming fabulous over so many weeks...........still believe upside potential more than down side (for positional players).......
intra day can trade basis fibo, patterns etc.
just for example yesterday it hit
3725......then 3795....so 70 points (X-A).....when seeing falling off....a
then 80% comes to 3738 (A-B) where buy order should be there.....retraced 50% (B-C) of 3795-3738 to 3771.........(C_D ongoing)
it is clear harmonic.....can judge....which animal !!!
use gann fibo pivot channelling EW everything.....after we have seem direction as per systems to judge position sizing |
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