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Crude Oil Trader |
Rahulsharmaat
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2009
Posts: 2766
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Post: #301  Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 7:34 pm Post subject: |
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Misson done...
Crude touched 6.5 year low..
We didn't see in MCX as INR played almost 2.5 %
Band baaja barat of crude |
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manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #302 Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:07 pm Post subject: |
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Rahul,
Have crude bottomed out for now???
Manoj |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #303 Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:06 pm Post subject: |
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V shaped recovery ruled out.
Gradual grinding consolidation etc
Just because bottom foreseen does not mean it shall hit highs next day week or even month
Cmp 2770 aug
Cmp 2827 sep
Data today
For aug 2720-2795 range for past 3 days
Expect Classic upmove if above 2790 for 30-50 points giving bull impression and breakout BUT inability to clear 2830 consistently would be bearish .
So sep 2890 approx 20 points shall be top in such situation.
Break below 2733 approx shall mean 70-80 point fall.
had mentioned sep 2750 target earlier . sep hit 2770. Therefore I would still not rule 2748 again. CMP 2830.
For today I would believe a rise possible.
For intra aug 2752 below can be sold for 2840/2834.
No current bull or bear trigger although in buy mode for intra. CMP 2766
Best trade today can be after 8 30 |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #304 Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | V shaped recovery ruled out.
Gradual grinding consolidation etc
Just because bottom foreseen does not mean it shall hit highs next day week or even month
Cmp 2770 aug
Cmp 2827 sep
Data today
For aug 2720-2795 range for past 3 days
Expect Classic upmove if above 2790 for 30-50 points giving bull impression and breakout BUT inability to clear 2830 consistently would be bearish .
So sep 2890 approx 20 points shall be top in such situation.
Break below 2733 approx shall mean 70-80 point fall.
had mentioned sep 2750 target earlier . sep hit 2770. Therefore I would still not rule 2748 again. CMP 2830.
For today I would believe a rise possible.
For intra aug 2752 below can be sold for 2840/2834.
No current bull or bear trigger although in buy mode for intra. CMP 2766
Best trade today can be after 8 30 |
actual trade given hits target. Sep contract hits 2742. 
break below 2733 giving profit. below 2680 aug shall hit 2625. intra buy small at 2680 possible. risky. avoid since done for the day, can intra sell at 2720-2735 levels. aug... yes intra. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #305 Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:32 pm Post subject: |
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have bought some quantity at 2755
would like to hold
first signs of 5-wave advance. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #306 Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:47 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | have bought some quantity at 2755
would like to hold
first signs of 5-wave advance. |
bullish trigger not confirmed yet by Rohan method and longs at 60 points loss. ( came to cost after gap down on Friday but holding)
I expect trading range of 2625/2655 on lower side and 2750/ 2760 onupside. bullish only above 2760/2780 holding.
whilestriclty not supported by system AND technical (as of now, market may support that later), on intuitive thinking I postulate this range behaviour
let's see. positional always tricky for me unlike intra day.
Last edited by amitagg on Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:01 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #307 Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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refer comment below following the previous post
I trading range would mean buy in small quantity only at lower range.in this there are two possibilities buy above 2705 to target 2730
buy if fall to 2670 but stop at that and moves above 2682 for target 2705/2715/2730
these are safer buys intra for me
for actioning my range hypothesis for greater than intra time frame
I would buy at 2655/2635 and hold stop 2590. RR is 2:1
intra chart pattern would show if a fresh downtrend or larger magnitude downtrend is persisting but I doubt it in next week. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #308 Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:29 pm Post subject: |
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Market opening gap down
2590 gone
stepping aside
38 support followed by 33
dollar index shall start its down war trajectory now
cushioning crude fall
however surplus supplies can increase due to less demand with fall in global GDP
I shall not short crude irrespective from now on since a bull spike after next week can be huge.
date on Wed to be watched
support 2525 |
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Rahulsharmaat
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2009
Posts: 2766
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| Post: #309 Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:43 pm Post subject: |
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Don't buy else buyers bottom will disappear...
Thoko thoke thoke
I sold on Friday again at 2730..n covered at 2610.
My recent shorts are at
3155
2990
2910
2850
2825
2785
2745
2730
Today seen 2577
Ha ha |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #310 Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2015 6:55 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | Market opening gap down
2590 gone
stepping aside
38 support followed by 33
dollar index shall start its down war trajectory now
cushioning crude fall
however surplus supplies can increase due to less demand with fall in global GDP
I shall not short crude irrespective from now on since a bull spike after next week can be huge.
date on Wed to be watched
support 2525 |
As stated above just after WEd data , we have seen 300 point spike.
However I am confused and hence not trading actively on longs since despite my previous 3-4 posts when I saw a "first" 5 wave impulse ( which probably led to this spike) the spike does "not" seem to be a bull wave ( though I may be wrong) . So at sep cmp 2800 current support is at 2753 and resistance 2850
I am unable to gather sufficient levels for trading outside the charting screen although it may just co solidat and go lower from here somewhat.....
The spike was also a result of connection and sandwich of prices and I downward BULL test would be important to say it is in bull phase. |
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AMBY
Yellow Belt
Joined: 05 Sep 2014
Posts: 503
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| Post: #311 Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2015 7:09 pm Post subject: |
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| THANKS FOR UPDATE. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #312 Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:35 pm Post subject: |
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Sold contra trade 2965 current stop 3010 stop can go out quickly
Intra target 2915 first
Shall likely fall tomorrow from here not today only 50-100 points
If move above 3010 sustaining mean my confusion means trend changed ..... |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #313 Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | Sold contra trade 2965 current stop 3010 stop can go out quickly
Intra target 2915 first
Shall likely fall tomorrow from here not today only 50-100 points
If move above 3010 sustaining mean my confusion means trend changed ..... |
Trailed to 2975 cmp 2940
After trailing RR was 5 : 1 but my level of 2935 was supposed to break to give confirmation IT did not
Exited at cost .... Since 2935 did not break if 2975 goes can hit 2996/3015 in one shot
It may be distributing if 2975 does not go.... Never heal likely fall but my time horizon consolidation makes me exit at cost.
Tomorrow shall look to sell or watch after 11 today
I have not entered longs today but retrace and long behaviour gives bullish comfort |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #314 Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Rahulsharmaat wrote: | Don't buy else buyers bottom will disappear...
Thoko thoke thoke
I sold on Friday again at 2730..n covered at 2610.
My recent shorts are at
3155
2990
2910
2850
2825
2785
2745
2730
Today seen 2577
Ha ha |
any change in view. it can still do down to test the lows or form double bottom. or 33 still open |
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parva
White Belt
Joined: 07 Dec 2009
Posts: 89
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| Post: #315 Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:15 pm Post subject: |
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Rahulji ...
Fierce move in CRUDE ...any change in view..?   
Parva |
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