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Dealing with Reversal |
skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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Post: #16  Posted: Mon May 13, 2013 9:53 am Post subject: |
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bharatpatel, Its fine that you follow something and it works in all kind of market.
My post is about systematic way to understand current position of NIFTY swing, specially reversal part of it. I have not told anything about any trading system. Just psychology part of it. |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #17 Posted: Wed May 15, 2013 10:56 am Post subject: |
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| skd2012 wrote: |
As far as current situation of market is concern. All I can see
1. Odd day underdogs are running -
2. PCR above 1.2
3. Odd day Bank NIFTY shows weakness.
4. Divergence is present (if I am not wrong).
5. Nature of intraday moves suggest consolidation phase (reversal or not, market needs to confirm).
6. Highest CALL OI at 6200 CE. We are little away from it.
7. Global markets rallying for sometime.
Let's see what happens next. So rally has potential to go upto 6200. Since near to all time high, if it has to breakout above it, one can not rule out wide range volatility ahead. |
So one should not be surprised by the volatility. It might be more going forward. It will test everyone including myself.
Trade as per the chart and trade only when we see good risk rewards. 
Happy trading! |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #18 Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 9:39 am Post subject: |
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| skd2012 wrote: |
Let's take current situation. As I have stated in 2nd post, we already have different signs of reversal developing currently, but scope is present up move can go to 6200 (valid for this expiry). Also we have not seen full price destruction is PUT option. If there is price destruction in PE, and market stops making new swing highs, then it will be worth to look into PE option. Also when trade goes in favor then it will worth holding on as these trades tend to give good rewards.
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Well, we get closer to 6200. However we have not seen price destruction in PE option. Also we are still in the situation when market making new highs as well.
So in summary, market may find resistance around 6200 for this series. But it is making new highs. So no shorting as of now!! But longs booking can come here. Watchful if getting trapped in longs here.
Only the situation is different this time is, NF has come up with adding OI and over all OI is high. So if it continues, then it can break out above 6200. Can not rule out this possibility due to high OI. So let's see where people cut OI first.
All the best. |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #19 Posted: Fri May 17, 2013 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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| skd2012 wrote: | | skd2012 wrote: |
Let's take current situation. As I have stated in 2nd post, we already have different signs of reversal developing currently, but scope is present up move can go to 6200 (valid for this expiry). Also we have not seen full price destruction is PUT option. If there is price destruction in PE, and market stops making new swing highs, then it will be worth to look into PE option. Also when trade goes in favor then it will worth holding on as these trades tend to give good rewards.
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Well, we get closer to 6200. However we have not seen price destruction in PE option. Also we are still in the situation when market making new highs as well.
So in summary, market may find resistance around 6200 for this series. But it is making new highs. So no shorting as of now!! But longs booking can come here. Watchful if getting trapped in longs here.
Only the situation is different this time is, NF has come up with adding OI and over all OI is high. So if it continues, then it can break out above 6200. Can not rule out this possibility due to high OI. So let's see where people cut OI first.
All the best. |
We have touched 6200. It is time to be cautious and nimble footed with longs I feel. If not reversal, 6000 around entrancement can not be rule out.
However enough fuel (shorts) is loaded in the system i.e. NF holds high OI, which can make thing interesting if we manage to hold above 6100 till a week before expiry. Till this high OI holds on, retracement would not come I think.
All the best. |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #20 Posted: Tue May 21, 2013 10:24 am Post subject: |
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| skd2012 wrote: | | skd2012 wrote: | | skd2012 wrote: |
Let's take current situation. As I have stated in 2nd post, we already have different signs of reversal developing currently, but scope is present up move can go to 6200 (valid for this expiry). Also we have not seen full price destruction is PUT option. If there is price destruction in PE, and market stops making new swing highs, then it will be worth to look into PE option. Also when trade goes in favor then it will worth holding on as these trades tend to give good rewards.
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Well, we get closer to 6200. However we have not seen price destruction in PE option. Also we are still in the situation when market making new highs as well.
So in summary, market may find resistance around 6200 for this series. But it is making new highs. So no shorting as of now!! But longs booking can come here. Watchful if getting trapped in longs here.
Only the situation is different this time is, NF has come up with adding OI and over all OI is high. So if it continues, then it can break out above 6200. Can not rule out this possibility due to high OI. So let's see where people cut OI first.
All the best. |
We have touched 6200. It is time to be cautious and nimble footed with longs I feel. If not reversal, 6000 around entrancement can not be rule out.
However enough fuel (shorts) is loaded in the system i.e. NF holds high OI, which can make thing interesting if we manage to hold above 6100 till a week before expiry. Till this high OI holds on, retracement would not come I think.
All the best. |
We have really seen reaction from 6200. One of the other reason for reaction is we completed 5 weeks of upmove last week. Also different reasons I have already discussed in this thread.
However one needs to see support around 6100. If it has to correct more, then it will not cross 6200 at the same time, but careful about late hour bounce (do not know from where and on which day, but it will give)!!
At this point one does not know if this really a down move and how far it will go. Looking forward to weekly candle formation of this week.
It will be strong point, if market corrects upto 5950-6000 by the expiry.
Signs are there, but one does not know 100%. |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #21 Posted: Tue May 21, 2013 1:54 pm Post subject: |
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| skd2012 wrote: | | skd2012 wrote: | | skd2012 wrote: | | skd2012 wrote: |
Let's take current situation. As I have stated in 2nd post, we already have different signs of reversal developing currently, but scope is present up move can go to 6200 (valid for this expiry). Also we have not seen full price destruction is PUT option. If there is price destruction in PE, and market stops making new swing highs, then it will be worth to look into PE option. Also when trade goes in favor then it will worth holding on as these trades tend to give good rewards.
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Well, we get closer to 6200. However we have not seen price destruction in PE option. Also we are still in the situation when market making new highs as well.
So in summary, market may find resistance around 6200 for this series. But it is making new highs. So no shorting as of now!! But longs booking can come here. Watchful if getting trapped in longs here.
Only the situation is different this time is, NF has come up with adding OI and over all OI is high. So if it continues, then it can break out above 6200. Can not rule out this possibility due to high OI. So let's see where people cut OI first.
All the best. |
We have touched 6200. It is time to be cautious and nimble footed with longs I feel. If not reversal, 6000 around entrancement can not be rule out.
However enough fuel (shorts) is loaded in the system i.e. NF holds high OI, which can make thing interesting if we manage to hold above 6100 till a week before expiry. Till this high OI holds on, retracement would not come I think.
All the best. |
We have really seen reaction from 6200. One of the other reason for reaction is we completed 5 weeks of upmove last week. Also different reasons I have already discussed in this thread.
However one needs to see support around 6100. If it has to correct more, then it will not cross 6200 at the same time, but careful about late hour bounce (do not know from where and on which day, but it will give)!!
At this point one does not know if this really a down move and how far it will go. Looking forward to weekly candle formation of this week.
It will be strong point, if market corrects upto 5950-6000 by the expiry.
Signs are there, but one does not know 100%. |
Yes, it played out as expected. 
It was to come. It will be test now to make a new low of current move to confirm weakness. Fingers crossed! Will it do soon? |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #22 Posted: Tue May 21, 2013 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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It has come down to low. that's how market tends to trade in the red zone given in earlier charts. Hope this helps in understanding market moves along with your trading methods.
Request to Moderator: Please close this thread. I have nothing much to add. Thank you. |
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kamal.icharts
Site Admin
Joined: 10 Apr 2013
Posts: 576
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| Post: #23 Posted: Thu May 23, 2013 1:46 pm Post subject: |
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Dear Member,
We are locking this thread now. Users can only read the posts, posted so far. No new posts or edits of earlier posts will be possible.
Regards
Kamal
| skd2012 wrote: | | Request to Moderator: Please close this thread. I have nothing much to add. Thank you. |
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