iCharts Discussions

[ajayhkaul]

Well said Vinay .... I am willing to bet ( with Stop Loss !!! ) that there will be concerted effort to stop the rot for the time being .

Markets don't crash when everyone is expecting them to crash ....

[vinay28]

Yes, Ajay, two events today are worth considering. (a) statements made by pranab and kaushik basu that "we have done enough for controlling inflation (and food inflation next month may be 3%) and that we have to act on the problem of fall in growth" and (b) manmohan meeting subbarao today. Add to that the rumour that black money in swiss and other foreign banks may come back by April '12.

[rk_a2003]

[vinay28]

RK, considering your couple of posts here and elsewhere, it is you who seems to have a fixed mindset right now, which is highly bearish! At the end of my post, I have already said that one should move with the market.

After all, TA shows a market has come in a buy or a sell only BECAUSE and AFTER giants like FIIs have bought at the bottom or sold at the top. The powers to be are the ones who decide whether a bottom or a top has been made. Have you forgotten the period between Nov 08 and March 09?

It's fine if you have a bearish view but that doesn't mean that we are only bullish. I have tried to show the other side of coin. Unless we are aware and open to both arguments, we may sink with either unilateral view.

By the way, even as I write this, gold has fallen to 1572$ (first time below 1600 in more than 2 months)

[rk_a2003]

Yes! I am bearish for the 'TIME BEING’. Our Market and International Markets are bearish that's the main reason for my bearishness (Not my mindset Vinay). What I say is be bearish while the markets are bearish. We can change our stance once the markets proved otherwise.

Assessing the reversals, predicting them based on economic- political factors is really challenging and self-fulfilling too. In fact I too love doing so (But only theoretically) .My only concern is while doing so in trading we may need to pay dearly before we were successful.

Some time back I posted a real incident which happened longtime ago in USA In which Some traders who went short after thoroughly getting convinced with a research paper submitted by an American economist group which stated that American markets at that time are overvalued and they need to go down up to a specified level to be at a reasonable valuations. After some time the economists proved perfectly right. The Market precisely reached the same levels as they predicted.

But the Irony is none of our traders made profits and wound up their positions in loss. Before coming down to this levels Market made an upward journey for another 50 % due to which our traders closed their position --- unable to meet MTM margins.

In the above case they played for a reasonable long time. It could be the same for short term also.



Sometimes our theories may prove perfectly right still our trades may fail miserably. It is always safe to be in the same direction of the market (Of course still with a SL... Till the Markets declare themselves otherwise) finally! I said this only out of concern not to argue with my own ‘MIND SET’.

In My posting I already said “What both of you said is right“. In fact both of you are perfectly right.

In case they proved right immediately. I will be the first person to be happy and applaud .

I think what you people are saying is basically not at all different from my views. The only difference is in what tactics should be adapted while trading? May be the time will tell us which tactics are best.

[ajayhkaul]

Standing out of the market is also a position .... so anyone who is not sure of the market direction or if volatility is difficult to handle , can take this position.

The example given by RK shows that traders get addicted to action and keep on 'self sabotaging' .

[psalm]

Yup...I agree with this view. Cash is king in this market, i guess. Waiting on the outside means like gaining a few percentages. The real advantage is that You'll have a peaceful mind.

[ajayhkaul]

Golden words , psalm

[newinvestor]

[psalm]

Good point. But i cant find any asset class to put the money into.. at this point of time. So, sittin on cash is the safest option i guess....

[OldMonk]

Dear Friends,

When the world is crashing, its time to buy equities.

Good news and great prices, do not come together.

Most stocks are available at good valuations and may reward you with 2X to 10X kind of reward for patient investors.

Do not listen to anyone spreading fear, only your gut feel and make good equity purchases. It will make you wealthy.

Love,
oldMonk

[vinay28]

Monk indeed! This should boost morals of many.

[pkholla]

OldMonk: First it is time to buy Old Monk. bottle of coca cola, roasted peanuts, pinch of salt for taste, drink up your sorrows and hope for better luck on upside!! (The Irish call this a wake, held beside the dead body of a relative!) Then we should remember that in 2008-9 crash/ rally, the upside movement was as sharp as the fall was! You are correct, we should have the guts to buy 'cos there are insane PEs available out there if u have the cash
Prakash Holla

[opportunist]

Psalm

Failed to find your answer to PT's question about technicals / fundamentals to explain your position. I have a feeling that you are trying to jack up the prices of January 4000 puts and Feb 4800 puts through such sensational headlines. Unfortunately people here are far too smart for that.

Oppo

[misscrore]