iCharts Discussions

[psalm]

Hi, I'm new to this forum. I came here just to post my view on the market. While checking the charts of Nifty, I have found that Nifty is on the verge of a HUGE CRASH. It can happen in the next 2 to 3 months. I expect that HUGE CRASH to start from this month or next month. So, I'm really worried about the investors who have put their hard earned money into the markets. I expect the NIFTY to reach around 3200 in another 2 to 3 months. So, as an analyst I want the investors to be cautious at this point of time. I believe even if they are sitting on a loss as of now, there is nothing wrong in booking the losses. The reason is that they will be able to buy those stocks MUCH MUCH CHEAPER. While checking the option data a while ago, I have found that the JANUARY 4000 PUT is trading at around 10 rupees. I believe its a really attractive option to buy that option (Jan 4000 PUT) because I expect huge rewards while the loss will be just around 10 rupees. FEBRUARY 4800 PUT is also looking attractive. The current price is around 140 rupees. I have a feeling that there will be at least a 1000 point crash from here. That fall will be more painful to the investors than the earlier crashes. In that case, you'll not get a chance to exit the stocks. Even for the Long term investors, if NIFTY goes below 2950, forget about another bull market in the next 2 to 3 years. I'm just giving you my opinion. Please don't be worried unduly or feel bad about my opinion. I'll be extremely glad if my prediction goes wrong. But if it is not, then be careful to protect your money. Have a great day.

Sam

[vinay28]

Sam, you are talking about jan 4000 PUT but feb 4800 PUT while expecting nifty to go to 3200? Why not lower than 4000 PUT for feb?

[psalm]

Yes, you can opt for other strike prices also. I was just mentioning about my choices. Please note that it is not a recommendation. It was just my view. But I stand by my view. I really believe that 4000 is almost sure on the NIFTY and if 3900 is taken out, then 3200 is very much possible.

Thanks for replyin to my post. Take care Vinay.

[aptcap]

sam, this is interesting. while u have said that u reached this conclusion by studying the charts, would it be possible explain this in bit more detail. Would be good to understand the underlying basis.


tks

[psalm]

I didn't mention about the reason for the 4800 PUT.....if the monthly closing is below 4800, thats the time i'm expecting the sell-off happening. I expect it this month. I mean i dont think the market will close this month above 4800. Thats y 4800PUT. I expect the market to reach the bottom in Jan or Feb. I guess it answers your question.

[psalm]

By the way, for aptcap...please see the monthly chart of Nifty....You can see that it is about to break down. I cant put the other indicators i have used to analyze here now. But one thing is for sure, Nifty is in a down trend. And a bottom might be reached in a few months. So, expect sell offs, panic sellings an crashes. I REALLY BELIEVE IT IS NOT THE RIGHT TIME TO PUT THE MONEY FOR INVESTING. BUT IF ONE WANTS TO TRADE, SHORTING IS THE NAME OF THE GAME.

[ProTrader]

Nice strategy to get attention .

Please post your complete Analysis and not try to spread the biology of fear and play with the Psychology of fellow traders by posting headers like this in strategy section. Share complete analysis and not fear. By making statements like,

"I cant put the other indicators i have used to analyze here now" makes no sense in the strategy section. It has been moved to market direction.

Thanks,
--PT

[singh.ravee]

psalm ji,
kindly share, were u able to trade today's fall.
regards
ravee

[pkholla]

Psalm: I agree with PT. Please post your technicals AND/ OR fundamentals and analysis based on above. Then we can check and see if your reasoning is OK before "panic"ing or "rejoicing" depending on whether we are short or long! I most certainly need to know WHY I must panic before I panic !!!! Prakash Holla

[aptcap]

psalm, tks for the chart which looks like a monthly nifty chart, however like PT said unless analysis based on technicals or fundamentals is posted its nothing more than an opinion or view and not a trade.

rgds

[ajayhkaul]

Fundamentally , they say ' Dont fight the Federal Reserve' ..... its unlikely to give up without a fight as politicians are dictating .

Ahead of the EU meeting , 'fear factor' will come into play ... but what would you do as a politician ? Santa Claus exists or not ?!!! Will the Europeans have a lousy Christmas ? Will they spare their leaders, then?

Its US elections next year ... statistically a bullish time as it is politically motivated...though things are tough right now.

Will there be WAR ? There is Iran, Syria , etc..

The bear market rally does not usually end when there is so much pessimism around... first all will be lured in to thinking the economy is getting revived ...then it will end with the next Euphoria ? then the down leg will take us back to 2009 lows?

But Christmas first , perhaps? Nothing to cheer this new year ?

Hmmm .....Interesting scenarios !

[vinay28]

Alas, Santa Claus doesn't live in India. We have only demons in the form of politicians. Sometimes I wonder whether we will fall only because of global issues considering that our issues are far worse.

The only hope is FIIs will bring Santa Claus here for this month at least.

[ajayhkaul]

Right now the politicians with numbered safe haven accounts are known to uncle Sam.

They will toe the line of the foreigners... junta doesn't matter. FIIs can pump and dump as much as they want and take the money home for xmas.

Don't overstay the party

[veerappan]

entire world is going to crack in a big ways...[ stock marekts].... let it be box dax..mikki nikki.. honkey monkey.. nasdog cow jones...or nf or sensex or cac... cake .. everything including silver gold also.... for nf we need 5133 shd be taken out on closing basis..... 4928 keep your eyes.. now two closes below then ...4888-4848-two closes below 4696 then ? 3900-4022 possible on cards....will it be a black friday ? tomorrow y not? 4696? tomorrow itself

veeru
chennai boy

[rk_a2003]

Wow! All Big Guns Firing In One Direction.

What the Market is going to do?!