iCharts Discussions

krish_pm · White Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2012 Posts: 44

ST sir,

18-May-2009

Upper circuit filter was triggered. so the data may be wrong.

Wish you Happy New year 2014

SwingTrader · Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2013 7:16 pm Post subject:

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

Swingtrader,

Happy New Year.....

SwingTrader · Posted: Wed Jan 01, 2014 1:10 pm Post subject:

amolghodekar · White Belt Joined: 02 Apr 2011 Posts: 41

Thanks a lot and wishing you a very happy and prosperous new year..

SwingTrader · Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2014 11:25 am Post subject:

Update for the most recent bearish trade...

Trade triggered on 16th right at market close according to the trading method I posted for trade selection. We got a daily close below a prior pivot on 16th (EMA crossover had happend before that). @drsuhask had pointed out this trade and incidentally I too have a bearish diagonal position on.

LONG FEB14 6100 PUT + SHORT JAN14 5900 PUT

PL table for this diagonal is attached below.

The loss on the trade is down to around 4.65%, it had not reached my 15% loss limit where I would have closed the trade.

Do note that this trade selection method is a crude one developed visually by glancing through the charts for the purpose of explaining diagonals. As someone had mentioned, one could refine it further to reduce such whipsaws. May be further confirmation can be added after signal is triggered. I leave it up to the person using this for real trading. But it really does not matter much if one is looking at this trade as one of hundreds he is going to take. Proper pricing of diagonal and strictly following the trading rules like stop loss etc is what will decide long term profitability. TA method is probably the least important thing from my experience.

That said, do refine your trade selection method as you wish and then stay consistent and take trades as per the signals. Don't make the method too precise. Market works on probabilities and not precision.

The steady up move after the 16h Dec bearish signal did not have strength enough to trigger a buy signal. The EMA crossover down on 3rd Jan has negated the previous buy trigger. Now we will have to look for a new buy signal after a bullish EMA crossover. Until then the bearish trade will continue.

SwingTrader · Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2014 11:47 am Post subject:

Diagonal Selection - Finer points

The bearish diagonal discussed below brings forward a key point.

I have suggested 30% hedge % as minimum required. I have also suggested that one start with OTM diagonals and then come nearer to the money diagonals until we get 30% hedge %. Probably 80-90% of the time this rule will be enough. But this current bearish trade would have been much better if the selected diagonal was nearer to the money. The 6100-5900 put diagonal was 100 pts OTM and that is risky. When I introduced the diagonals I suggested ITM long + OTM Short as the ideal combination that balances risk/reward. It is suggested that one stays as close to this configuration as possible. Going OTM increases risk and going too much ITM reduces profits.

Anyway...once you have experienced few diagonal trades live, all these things will come naturally / intuitively.

amolghodekar · White Belt Joined: 02 Apr 2011 Posts: 41

Hi ST,

For the current trade, the bearish signal was confirmed on 16-Dec-2012, looking for Put long and short option combination. But on 23-Dec there was a EMA crossover but no confirmation on Long as previous pivot was not broken. But on 27-Dec-2012, the days close was 6370 , closing higher than previous pivot of 6359. So we should have closed the short position on this day or next day and went for Long option combinations. But as per your comments we are still in bearish trade. could you please explain this. The chart is attached with the post.

Please note I used Nifty Future chart. Should we use Nifty Spot chart?

Thanks,
Amol.
[img][/img]

amitagg · Black Belt Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559

yes i wanted to ask that too...in NS that was no so....close was i guess 6312 as against previous high of 6320 odd...just by memory...can check....so long was not triggered...ST can confirm this.....

also St please confirm whether we should use 1 day close over the previous signicant pivot on "spot" chart or the method would be better [ based on what the backtesting tells which i am not aware] if we use 2 days closing.....

SwingTrader · Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 9:26 am Post subject:

Yes, I have been using NS chart for a while now as I have had problems with continuous futures chart the day after expiry when there is sudden change. But I guess I should have used NF for posting examples here as I have used NF in the examples posted in the lessons. But in trading I have been using NS for a while now. Using NF for intraday trades is fine but for swing/positional I would stick to NS.

Let me do one thing, in few days I will post stats of all trades in the last 1 year using NS and NF just to see what kind of difference it would have made.

SwingTrader · Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 9:35 am Post subject:

SwingTrader · Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 1:12 pm Post subject:

I have posted, in the "Lessons & examples forum thread", a spreadsheet with 2013 diagonal stats based on trades taken using NS 60 mins chart. Please take a look.

amolghodekar · White Belt Joined: 02 Apr 2011 Posts: 41

SwingTrader · Posted: Mon Jan 06, 2014 8:54 am Post subject:

paa · White Belt Joined: 28 Sep 2010 Posts: 178

ST Sir
There is no pair with 30% hedge in Jan-Feb series. What strategy do you suggest in this type of series?
Regards