iCharts Discussions

[kkanna]

Sep 26, 2011; 1230 hrs.

As I write this, Nifty is at 4783 and Europe is about to open in a few minutes.

Nifty is currently testing its recent Low of 4720 made on Aug 26, 2011.

Though the action doesn’t inspire confidence to become Bullish and start buying, I do see Positive / Bullish Divergences in MACD Lines, MACD-Histo and RSI.

Meaning I don’t know yet where Nifty will stop and reverse (or stay) but I do believe that the probability of Nifty going down further beyond 4700 are limited, UNLESS THE DIVERGENCES I REFER TO, DISAPPEAR.

I can keep you posted about all those here regularly.

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[kamal.icharts]

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[kkanna]

If you look at the Daily Charts, Sep 8, Nifty made a High of 5169.25 and the next High was slightly lower, at 5168.40 made on Sep 21, 2011.

On the other side, 2nd last Low was 4720 made on Aug 26 and again the last Low was slightly higher at 4758.85 made yesterday.

Combining these with the fact that ADX is below both the +ve as well as -ve lines, it pays to play it safe and reduce positions till a CLEAR TREND emerges.

[kkanna]

Recall my earlier post:

‘Meaning I don’t know yet where Nifty will stop and reverse (or stay) but I do believe that the probability of Nifty going down far lower beyond 4700 are limited, UNLESS THE DIVERGENCES I REFER TO, DISAPPEAR.’

I will have to change that statement and go to the other extreme, IF NIFTY FIRMLY CLOSES BELOW 4820 TOMORROW, Oct 4, 2011.

Watch out and trade safe.

[kkanna]

Nifty seems to be breaking upwards of its recent range 5169.25 (Sep 8th) - 4720 (Aug 26th) by closing at 5191.60 today. Though there is nothing, as I write this, that makes us suspect this upward break, the following have to be kept in mind if you want to go Long from here:

1. A Close around today's has to be maintained for a few more days to come, to confirm this Bullish move.

2. Nifty made a Down Gap on Aug 5, 2011, 5323.15 - 5229.65, that still remains untouched.

3. Couple of holidays are intervening and Europe's turmoil might have an impact when Nifty resumes normal trading.

4. This Up move will definitely be tested around 5450, if it continues till then !

On the positive side, there are quite a number of take aways from today's action:

1. 4700 seems to be a firm bottom for some more time to come. 5011 needs to be tested as a bottom.

2. Nifty has closed firmly above 50 EMA for the past few days continuously.

3. A firm Close above 5228 will indicate a definite move upwards in the immediate future. Till then, you need to be cautious on your Long positions in Nifty. I doubt whether you can afford to be short now !

If you think I am confusing too much, please recall the title of this blog.

[kkanna]

It has been sometime since I posted a blog, as I was busy studying Nifty's recent Bear move.

And I am not sure whether a post is deserved now, as I post one only when there's an imminent move or when Nifty comes to an Inflection Point.

Well, I love these moves, be it up or down. But what a sign the charts are giving us now !

To continue from where I left, recall I posted these in my last post on Oct 25, 2011, when Nifty was breaking upwards from a range then:

"This Up move will definitely be tested around 5450, if it continues till then !"

"4700 seems to be a firm bottom for some more time to come. 5011 needs to be tested as a bottom."

Nifty went up till 5399.70 (Oct 28, 2011) and started falling since then but didn't even care to pause at 5011. But its 4700 that is being tested now.

What Nifty has done in the last couple of days, is it has closed below 4720, both on a Daily as well as Weekly Closing. This is something serious, as I consider the range around 4720 an important level. As such, whether to take this seriously and decide that the outlook is so bearish now because Nifty has closed Daily / Weekly below 4720

or to give it a week more to let it decide whether 4720 has really been violated or might hover around this level in a range for sometime, is your choice. We will soon come to know anyway !

Monthly chart is showing a clear down move; but not sure whether it would be of any use to traders. What's important to note here is Volatility based bands are beginning to expand on this down move, meaning if you are thinking of shorts, it pays to wait till the next High.

Weekly chart mirrors Monthly one, giving us a sort of confluence.

Daily chart indicates clearly that Trend Followers / Systems would have triggered a Short already. But what a steep fall it has been !

4720 was broken downwards on Nov 23, 2011 with the next day closing above 4720 (Heard of Turtle Soup?) giving 4720 the benefit of doubt. But Friday, it went topsy-turvy again, closing below 4720.

Though all along everything seems Bearish, there are two pointers that might need to be watched that could result in Nifty moving in a range without a clear direction for sometime (Or may even move up) : 1. There is a slight Bullish (Double) Divergence in Weekly MACD-H; 2. Daily MACD-H has just turned up last two days. But you can't take any trading decisions based on these alone, rather combine them with other pointers referred earlier.

If you are not Directionally Challenged like me, you should get a clear picture that tells you to wait for the next High. Till then, enjoy not trading.

[kkanna]

The crucial Nifty level of 4720 that I referred in my last blog has held firm till today. Looks like that was a false break-out.

But we can't take heart from that fact because Nifty's charts in all time frames present a very bearish picture. The only consolation could be that ADX lines are curling together in longer time frames; ( except Daily's that indicates a clear Down Trend).

From these, I could only infer that whatever happened so far is likely to pause for sometime till we reach a Trend Deciding level shortly ahead. I could also interpret it as we might have trendless noise for sometime ! This also is confirmed by many other indicators like converging volatility bands across time frames.

But before that happens, there might be a move down.

We need to study where the next low falls in comparison to this 4720 so that we could trade accordingly. Till next Low, there could be choppiness ahead in shorter timeframes ! Meaning, whatever you do, ensure the stops are real tight !

Have I made anything any clearer

[veerappan]

sokka sollikinappa... englishla potukeeriya .... rendu moonu dhapa padchikina puriyuda pathukinu keeran onnum therla....

[rosecomputers]

kanna loddu thina aasaiya?.....4848............innum orru loddu thina aasaiya?.........4928............wait for monday

[kkanna]

[kkanna]

[veerappan]

innaapa kanna kochinkinu pootiya....

ellam english english nu poota innappa pandradhu... endhuna puriyara madhiri poduppa... romba peru keerango....

inna solra nee? appala enga keera nee?

[vinay28]

Veerappan, neka tamil tariyad pa!

[kkanna]