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FII & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MCX-SX |
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #106  Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2014 8:01 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: |
rk, FIIs have not shorted as yet but just long unwinding. LIC bought today |
Vinay. They might not have shorted.(I don't know how to gauge that) but,They bought for 13500 cr in Dec. bought for 100 cr in Jan and now sold for 2600cr in the month of Feb (just in the beginning).From this it is evident that this trend of diminishing inflows emanated out of tapering.
I know that there is an argument that even though there is some liquidity tightening happens out of tapering .India may keep getting the inflows out of it's favorable position ( because of the growth rate). But that is not yet reflected in FII's cash market inflows and INR/$ exchange rate.
Let it reflect in real inflows. |
rk, the question is whether you are going to wait for a +ve fig from them before going long.  |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #107 Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2014 8:10 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: |
rk, FIIs have not shorted as yet but just long unwinding. LIC bought today |
Vinay. They might not have shorted.(I don't know how to gauge that) but,They bought for 13500 cr in Dec. bought for 100 cr in Jan and now sold for 2600cr in the month of Feb (just in the beginning).From this it is evident that this trend of diminishing inflows emanated out of tapering.
I know that there is an argument that even though there is some liquidity tightening happens out of tapering .India may keep getting the inflows out of it's favorable position ( because of the growth rate). But that is not yet reflected in FII's cash market inflows and INR/$ exchange rate.
Let it reflect in real inflows. |
rk, the question is whether you are going to wait for a +ve fig from them before going long. |
Certainly... I will. Otherwise we are going to witness just bounces. Is it not wise to pay some premium for getting such an assertion?. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #108 Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2014 8:26 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: |
rk, FIIs have not shorted as yet but just long unwinding. LIC bought today |
Vinay. They might not have shorted.(I don't know how to gauge that) but,They bought for 13500 cr in Dec. bought for 100 cr in Jan and now sold for 2600cr in the month of Feb (just in the beginning).From this it is evident that this trend of diminishing inflows emanated out of tapering.
I know that there is an argument that even though there is some liquidity tightening happens out of tapering .India may keep getting the inflows out of it's favorable position ( because of the growth rate). But that is not yet reflected in FII's cash market inflows and INR/$ exchange rate.
Let it reflect in real inflows. |
rk, the question is whether you are going to wait for a +ve fig from them before going long. |
Certainly... I will. Otherwise we are going to witness just bounces. Is it not wise to pay some premium for getting such an assertion?. |
rk, unless you are going to do trading or unless you think nifty can go to 3800 also, I think one should start buying, for short/medium/long term. IMHO, even a level of 5600 does not imply bear market. |
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saumya12
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Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #109 Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2014 9:26 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | rk, unless you are going to do trading or unless you think nifty can go to 3800 also, I think one should start buying, for short/medium/long term. IMHO, even a level of 5600 does not imply bear market. |
Vinay
In your opinion (based on technical analysis or otherwise) how low level of NIFTY, we can see in next few months.
May be in next 6-12-18 or so months
Can Nifty repeat the levels of 2009 OR may be some more than that, but certainly lower than 3800. 
PS
I wrote this post only because you mentioned 3800 levels, otherwise I might have not written this post. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #110 Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2014 9:52 pm Post subject: |
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| saumya12 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | rk, unless you are going to do trading or unless you think nifty can go to 3800 also, I think one should start buying, for short/medium/long term. IMHO, even a level of 5600 does not imply bear market. |
Vinay
In your opinion (based on technical analysis or otherwise) how low level of NIFTY, we can see in next few months.
May be in next 6-12-18 or so months
Can Nifty repeat the levels of 2009 OR may be some more than that, but certainly lower than 3800.
PS
I wrote this post only because you mentioned 3800 levels, otherwise I might have not written this post. |
saumya, as per gap theory, the famous election gap is yet to be filled though I couldn't find it in NS. It IS there in NF and is around those levels or 3100, if I remember right. I did post some days ago that if we see a hopelessly hung parliament or a majority for (communist) AAP, then God save this country and markets. In that case, market will be down till early 2015. As per neo wave theory, which is a reportedly much more accurate version of EW, we could see 30-50% fall from the high provided a new high is not made and held.
At the same time, since most of the market is owned by FIIs, they can't get out, however bad the situation may be, unless they create euphoria, which I feel will start above 6500 and end around 6850. AND that may happen before elections, even if we see 5630 first.
This is my opinion to the extent that my brain works. I could be wrong!  |
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saumya12
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Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #111 Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2014 10:23 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | saumya12 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | rk, unless you are going to do trading or unless you think nifty can go to 3800 also, I think one should start buying, for short/medium/long term. IMHO, even a level of 5600 does not imply bear market. |
Vinay
In your opinion (based on technical analysis or otherwise) how low level of NIFTY, we can see in next few months.
May be in next 6-12-18 or so months
Can Nifty repeat the levels of 2009 OR may be some more than that, but certainly lower than 3800.
PS
I wrote this post only because you mentioned 3800 levels, otherwise I might have not written this post. |
saumya, as per gap theory, the famous election gap is yet to be filled though I couldn't find it in NS. It IS there in NF and is around those levels or 3100, if I remember right. I did post some days ago that if we see a hopelessly hung parliament or a majority for (communist) AAP, then God save this country and markets. In that case, market will be down till early 2015. As per neo wave theory, which is a reportedly much more accurate version of EW, we could see 30-50% fall from the high provided a new high is not made and held.
At the same time, since most of the market is owned by FIIs, they can't get out, however bad the situation may be, unless they create euphoria, which I feel will start above 6500 and end around 6850. AND that may happen before elections, even if we see 5630 first.
This is my opinion to the extent that my brain works. I could be wrong! |
Very correct, Vinay
There remains a gap in NF as mentioned by you and I am of the opinion that it can be filled this time.
You rightly said that FIIs can create an euphoria to raise Nifty to high levels to get out of the market.
If we see 5000-5100 levels on the downside (may be from 6850 levels) then we can see that gap level also.
Also, I am of the opinion that we will see hung Parliament this time.
As far as AAP is concerned, AAP is no entity on national level. Even Delhites have a "moh bhang" with them. AAP got votes only because those who did not want to vote Congress and BJP, voted them. And also because they promised for 50% reduction in electricity bills and free water. |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #112 Posted: Wed Feb 05, 2014 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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5-02-14
FII: -576.20 (Cumulative -3198.92) (111.81 Jan) (13489.39 Dec)
DII: 815.23(Cumulative +1423.23) (-2429.37 Jan) (-7041.39 Dec)
Nifty:6022.40 ( 21.50) 0.36% |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #113 Posted: Thu Feb 06, 2014 8:28 pm Post subject: |
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6-02-14
FII: 10.75 (Cumulative -3188.17) (111.81 Jan) (13489.39 Dec)
DII: 610.8(Cumulative +2034.03) (-2429.37 Jan) (-7041.39 Dec)
Nifty:6036.30 ( 13.90) 0.23%
FII's paused selling. We may expect some bounce up in NIFTY. We can not rule out the possibility of resumption of selling from FII's at higher levels again. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #114 Posted: Thu Feb 06, 2014 9:29 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | 6-02-14
FII: 10.75 (Cumulative -3188.17) (111.81 Jan) (13489.39 Dec)
DII: 610.8(Cumulative +2034.03) (-2429.37 Jan) (-7041.39 Dec)
Nifty:6036.30 ( 13.90) 0.23%
FII's paused selling. We may expect some bounce up in NIFTY. We can not rule out the possibility of resumption of selling from FII's at higher levels again. |
FIIs' average price per contract comes to around 5953.93 |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #115 Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2014 8:22 pm Post subject: |
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7-02-14
FII: -267.26 (Cumulative -3455.43) (111.81 Jan) (13489.39 Dec)
DII: 627.42(Cumulative +2661.45) (-2429.37 Jan) (-7041.39 Dec)
Nifty:6063.20 ( 26.90) 0.45%
FII's again resumed selling but this time DII's out powered with buying. DII's are determined to take up the market. Will they be able to defend it from FII's selling?.I don't think so.
Last edited by rk_a2003 on Mon Feb 10, 2014 6:44 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #116 Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:03 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | [color=darkred]6-02-14
FII: -267.26 (Cumulative -3455.43) (111.81 Jan) (13489.39 Dec)
DII: 627.42(Cumulative +2661.45) (-2429.37 Jan) (-7041.39 Dec)
Nifty:6063.20 ( 26.90) 0.45%
FII's again resumed selling but this time DII's out powered with buying. DII's are determined to take up the market. Will they be able to defend it from FII's selling?.[b]I don't think so.[/b] |
[/color]
not unless the weekly gap at 6267 is filled up. Importance of gap will be posted in "nifty for feb" thread |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #117 Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:10 pm Post subject: |
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DIIs are accumulating, normally after a period of 10-15 days of accumulation (during a fall) market reverses sharply.
This time we have hardly fallen. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #118 Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 12:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Incidentally, FIIs bought in index futures, index options and stock futures (Net buy +1278.67 Crore) |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #119 Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 6:47 pm Post subject: |
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10-02-14
FII: -455.180 (Cumulative -3910.61) (111.81 Jan) (13489.39 Dec)
DII: 294.79(Cumulative +2956.24) (-2429.37 Jan) (-7041.39 Dec)
Nifty:6053.45 ( -9.75) -0.16% |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #120 Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 9:17 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | 10-02-14
FII: -455.180 (Cumulative -3910.61) (111.81 Jan) (13489.39 Dec)
DII: 294.79(Cumulative +2956.24) (-2429.37 Jan) (-7041.39 Dec)
Nifty:6053.45 ( -9.75) -0.16% |
FII also sold in index option but bought in index future, stock future (Net sell 515.84 Crore) and their average price per contract comes to around 5973.79.
Range has narrowed to 6000-6100 and a big move is imminent. |
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