iCharts Discussions

[rsnagesh]

AS FAR AS FII'S ARE CONCERNED, THEY HAVE STARTED SHORT POSITIONS SINCE 27-07-2007 IN ALL INDEX FUTURES, AND SHORTING IN STOCK FUTURES IN ONE SIDE. SIMULTANEOUSLY THEY ARE SMARTLY HEDGING THEIR POSITIONS WITH INDEX OPTIONS AND STOCK OPTIONS ON THE OTHER SIDES. SO, THERE IS GOING TO BE A FREE FALL ACROSS THE BOARD GOING FORWARD. HENCE, ONE CAN EXPECT A FALL TO AN EXTENT OF 9.65% TO 11.28% DOWNSIDE IN BOTH SENSEX AND IN NIFTY. IF THIS PROBABILITY DOES NOT HAPPEN ONE COULD SEE A MAXIMUM UPSIDE TO AN EXTENT OF 15940. SO THERE IS GOING TO BE A FANTASTIC FREE FALL GOING FORWARD. IF THE CURRENT SENTIMENTS, FUNDAMENTALS MIXED WITH TECHNICALS AND THE FIRST QUARTER PROFITABILITY OF SENSEX 30 AND NIFTY 50 STOCKS FOR THE CURRENT FISCAL YEAR 2007-2008, THE ABOVE LEVELS COULD BE AN ACHIEVABLE ONE.

FII'S CURRENT STATUS AS ON 30-08-2007.: [u](HUGE COVERING SEEN IN INDEX FUTURES AND MINOR COVERING IN STOCK FUTURES, AS WELL AS STARTED SELLING IN INDEX OPTIONS AND SELLING SEEN IN STOCK'S CALL OPTIONS TODAY) [/u]

FII'S SHORT SOLD IN ALL THE INDEX FUTURES AMOUNT (IN CRORES)

29291 CONTRACTS 491.94 Crs.

FII'S LONG PURCHASES IN ALL THE INDEX OPTIONS AMOUNT (IN CRORES)

70906 CONTRACTS 1467.33 Crs.

FII'S SHORT SOLD IN STOCK FUTURES AMOUNT (IN CRORES)

65016 CONTRACTS 2033.93 Crs.

FII'S SHORT SOLD IN STOCK OPTIONS AMOUNT (IN CRORES)

731 CONTRACTS. 8.73 Crs.

SO LONG, FII'S SHORT SELL IN INDEX FUTURES AND SELLS IN STOCK FUTURES NIFTY AND SENSEX WOULD CONTINUE TO FACE A FREE FALL . SO, THE LONG TERM INVESTOR SHOULD CUT HIS LONG TERM POSITIONS AND LOOK FOR THE ROCK BOTTOM LEVEL TO MAKE A RE-ENTRY TO THE MARKET WHEN FII'S GO WITH THE REVERSAL ACTION. THE REVERSAL OF THE BULLISH TREND COULD BE HAPPEN REALISTICALLY EITHER AT THE LEVEL OF 14652.09 OR AT THE LEVEL OF 14723.88 IN THE SENSEX ZONE MAY BE DURING FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST 2007 . THESE INTERPRETATIONS ARE BASED ON TECHNICALS.

AT THE SAME TIME, WHEN GOING WITH THE FUNDAMENTAL SIDE ANGLE, ACCORDING TO NIFTY 50 STOCKS 4 QUARTERS TRAILING EPS OF NIFTY IS FULLY PRICED AT 4627.53 AND CORRESPONDINGLY SENSEX IS FULLY PRICED AT 15812.09 AT THE SAME TIME IF MONEY FLOW IS INTACT EVEN AFTER ACHIEVING THIS POINT NIFTY COULD HIT 4785.43 AND IN SENSEX IT CAN MOVE UPTO 16445.26 WHICH COULD BE THE MAXIMUM LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING. AFTER HITTING THIS LEVEL WE MAY COME ACROSS A FALL WITH A MINIMUM TO AN EXTENT OF 4244.30 IN NIFTY AND IN SENSEX LEVEL BETWEEN 14275.33.TO 14590.23.WOULD TAKE A HOLD. THE MAXIMUM COULD BE 4105.54 IN NIFTY AND IN SENSEX WOULD RANGE BETWEEN 13718.91 TO 14028.49. THE WORST CASES BOTH IN NIFTY AND SENSEX MUST BE 3902 AND 12902.71 RESPECTIVELY. AT THIS POINT BOTH NIFTY AND SENSEX WOULD TRADE AT A THROWAWAY PRICE. HENCE, A LONG TERM INVESTOR MUST ENTER AT THIS POINT IRRESPECTIVE OF THE PREVAILING BAD SENTIMENTS AND TECHNICAL WEAKNESS IN THE WHOLE SYSTEM.

IF THIS HAPPENS AN INVESTOR MAKE A RE-ENTRY IN TO THE MARKET EITHER IN THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST 2007 OR AT THE FIRST WEEK SEPTEMBER 2007.

HOPE THIS INTERPRETATION WILL GIVE A CLEAR PICTURE OF THE CURRENT MARKET TREND.

A STUDY AND WRITE UP BY R.S. NAGESH.[b]

POST SCRIPT (1).: FROM 17TH AND 22ND AUGUST ONWARDS FII'S TURNED NET BUYERS. AT THE SAME TIME AT 4002 LEVEL IN NIFTY AND IN SENSEX AT 13780 BOTH THE INDICES WERE TRADED AT 17.64 PE RATIO POINTS, SO ONE SHOULD BE AN AGGRESSIVE BUYER AT THIS LEVEL. THERE MAY BE A POSSIBILITY OF THIS LEVEL MAY RE-TEST ON OR BEFORE 30TH AUGUST 2007. THIS COULD BE THE BOTTOM OF THE CURRENT CALENDER YEAR 2007. SO, ONE SHOULD TAKE A CHANCE OF BUYING AT THIS LEVEL SO AGGRESSIVELY WOULD TAKE HOME A NET RETURN OF 32.33% FLAT INDEX POINTS PROVIDED THE INVESTOR STAY INVESTED UNTIL 28TH FEBRUARY 2008. HENCE, FII MAY START TURN THEMSELVES AS A BUYER @ 4 TRADING DAYS PRIOR TO F & O SETTLEMENTS MARKET WOULD TURN INTO REVERSAL SIDE OF ACTION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 22-08-2007 TO 24-08-2007 BUY AT THIS POINT WHATEVER MAY BE THE PREVAILING TREND EXISTS. SO, SHORT SOLD STOCKS TO BE COVERED IN THIS ZONE.

POST SCRIPT (2).: AS FOCUSSED EARLIER ONE SHOULD HAVE COVERED THE SHORTS BETWEEN 22ND TO 24TH AUG 2007 ITSELF. NOW THE MARKET TURNED POSITIVE AS PER THE FORECAST. BUT AT THE SAME TIME IT HAS TO CLOSE ABOVE 4224 IN NIFTY AND 14652.09 IN SENSEX AT LEAST FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS FOR THE NEXT UPMOVE TARGETING FOR 4624 , 5296 IN NIFTY AND THEN 15794.92, 18489.64 IN SENSEX ON A CLOSING BASIS.[/b]