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Food For thought - Who buys there? |
mayurnsk Moderator
Joined: 18 Jan 2007 Posts: 216 Location: Nasik, Maharashtra
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Post: #1 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:00 pm Post subject: Food For thought - Who buys there? |
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This is reproduced material, this is not my original write up. Just as I found it interesting I reproduced here, This material belongs to one Smart Trader
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Look at the picture below . You might have seen this pattern many times.
Market is in a bull trend. It pull backs and makes a low at point A. Afterwards it goes up and later returns to the same price level and print a beautiful pin bar.
As a trader what will be your action in this area?
Some possibilities are
1.You will keep a stop loss order just below point A if you are holding long position
2.You will sell just below point A expecting a breakout to the down side
3.You will go long above the pin bar with a stop loss below the candle
Will you buy at the circled area? Who bought there? Who absorbed both stop loss selling and breakout selling? Why?
Please let me know .
Regards
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mayurnsk |
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rvg White Belt
Joined: 31 Oct 2006 Posts: 279
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Post: #2 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:07 pm Post subject: |
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Always safer to wait for Candle Close and then take action based on next candle |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #3 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:08 pm Post subject: |
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Mayur, is this a quiz for which you have the answer or is it a doubt? |
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mayurnsk Moderator
Joined: 18 Jan 2007 Posts: 216 Location: Nasik, Maharashtra
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Post: #4 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:14 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 Hi!
You need to answer whatever you think or know about the setup, like rvg did. Instead you are questioning me . Its not doubt nor a quiz. It will help us all to know what do to in such scenario, right?
Regards
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mayurnsk |
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mayurnsk Moderator
Joined: 18 Jan 2007 Posts: 216 Location: Nasik, Maharashtra
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Post: #5 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:17 pm Post subject: |
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rvg Hi!
Yes usually thats the way we trade, but question is who buys the candle wick :-/
Regards
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mayurnsk |
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rk_a2003 Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734
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Post: #6 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:24 pm Post subject: |
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mayurnsk wrote: | rvg Hi!
Yes usually thats the way we trade, but question is who buys the candle wick :-/
Regards
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mayurnsk |
It's a big player (can be FII/DII/Operator or a cartel) who have a game plan for taking it up.He knew that ones double bottom with pin bar formed crowd will jump in for buying which makes his task a little easier. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #7 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:26 pm Post subject: |
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to me 3 looks attractive unless circled area is in a sweet zone of a +ww. |
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rvg White Belt
Joined: 31 Oct 2006 Posts: 279
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Post: #8 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:30 pm Post subject: |
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mayurnsk wrote: | rvg Hi!
Yes usually thats the way we trade, but question is who buys the candle wick :-/
Regards
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mayurnsk |
Candle Wick is bought by funds who are transferring assets from one hand to the other ; It mostly would be a transaction taking place between two known parties where one is booking profits and encashing and the other is buying at a pivotal price for further upmove. For Novice traders or retailers it would be akin to catching a falling knife.
Bargain hunters may also buy there.. Take example of recent freak trade in Ultratech Cement and TaMo ; Investigations revealed that some fund had placed buy orders at the bottom of the wick. This was not the first time that this fund had profited from such a trade. They had profited earlier too from similar freak trades..
On further investigation it was found out that this fund regularly places buy orders at 10% below CMP to profit from such freak trades. Its their regular business practice |
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rvg White Belt
Joined: 31 Oct 2006 Posts: 279
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Post: #9 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:42 pm Post subject: Buy the WICK |
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Mayur .. Your chart maybe incomplete .. look at chart of AdaniPower todays candle.. Chart attached.
The price was at an intersection of multiple supports.. look @ how the price broke down below horizontal price support but took support at the UTL.
Those who are only viewing the horizontal support line may see it as a breakdown .. but those who are aware of the TL support will see it as excellent buying opportunity and they BUY the WICK. |
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mayurnsk Moderator
Joined: 18 Jan 2007 Posts: 216 Location: Nasik, Maharashtra
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Post: #10 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:49 pm Post subject: |
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rvg
That was very good reply. But now again question arises. How that fund keeps those buy orders, with a such a precision ?
mayurnsk |
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mayurnsk Moderator
Joined: 18 Jan 2007 Posts: 216 Location: Nasik, Maharashtra
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Post: #11 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:53 pm Post subject: |
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rvg
I said so about precision because many a times we see such candle happens where is nothing such support you shown.
mayurnsk |
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rvg White Belt
Joined: 31 Oct 2006 Posts: 279
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Post: #12 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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mayurnsk wrote: | rvg
That was very good reply. But now again question arises. How that fund keeps those buy orders, with a such a precision ?
mayurnsk |
e.g. HDFC Prashant Jain manages multiple funds of HDFC MF. He may want to do a rotation of stocks within his funds to take care of cash flows.. He can easily plan such a transaction in advance. Some funds maybe doing this as a regular activity to manage their cash flows. |
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rvg White Belt
Joined: 31 Oct 2006 Posts: 279
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Post: #13 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 5:12 pm Post subject: Trading Pattern Failures |
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Mayur.. Attached another chart of ITC which I traded.
This is example of trading the pattern failure.. Price broke down the Andrew Pitchfork and UTL support lines.. Stock was oversold and ripe for a risk free reversal trade.. Bought @ 270 and traded all the way upto the UTL resistance.
On Weekly timeframe this may be similar to BUY the WICK |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #14 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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rvg, the bottm two candles look like harami so worth the try. good trade |
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sairanga19 White Belt
Joined: 28 Nov 2009 Posts: 51
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Post: #15 Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 11:16 pm Post subject: |
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mayurji namasteji, my opinion if a stock falls or rises more then thirty percent from high/low on closing basis means its entering bear/bull trend, professionals don't let to fall more then 30percent if they have buying interest on any particular stocks and they mostly pyramid their positions and they start booking profits by selling stocks to retailers they bought at lower levels once the stocks trends in their desired direction. that,s why suddenly some stocks goes sideways because professionals halts their buying temporarily, their by providing opportunity them self for buying stocks from weak hands from lower levels. u can check charts, most of the bullish stocks wont correct more then 30 percentage example icicibank,lupin, jubilant foods,jk lakshmi cements etc even though when nifty fall from high 6338 to 4531 this stocks didn't fall now trading at higher levels. so,my answer to your question is any pin bar within 30percentage of fall from high means professionals are buying that particular stock gradually,after finishing their buying they test the last significant low if volume is lower then its good chance for bargain buying
thanks ji |
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