iCharts Discussions

[vinay28]

hey, translate fast

[pkholla]

FIIs are not frustrated as long as they can get "carry trade" loans at 1% and earn 10% in backward economies like India, with their automated trading systems, obliging staff at NSE/ BSE and 000s of crs.
They are more likely to sing:
KABHI AL VIDA NA KEHANA, KABHI AL VIDA NA KEHANA
XMAS ME PAISA DALNA
EASTER ME GHAR LOTNA
PHIR VAPAS AATAY REHANA, PHIR VAPAS AATAY REHANA
Rgds, Prakash Holla

[ajayhkaul]

[rajmuthusamy]

Its a great effort to capture the news / key articles at one place...Kudos to Givemegold for that...

However, you never find direct news item about the Hedgefunds / FIis money waiting to flow to India..Huge potential at present to attract the ETF/HF funds from US and Europe...You will only find data after receiving the money in India..

Our country may continue at the higher interest regime than the Global mkts and will be an attractive destiny to the Global funds.. If they come into the mkts, there is no limit for the upside...I still continue remain Bullish for time being....

Having been on the other side of the fund house - i respect the power of that money...

However, we need to trade with caution and certainly good to keep an eye on these articles which will provide triggers in advance..

regards

Raj Muthusamy

[givemegold]

Tnx Raj Muthuswamy, ajayhkaul,pkholla – for your views.

I compile various views from media – also try to get personal views from serious investors / FIIs / NRIs on face to face chat basis and posted them here. Many of FIIs are applying breaks on their buying spree. Also, you may take it that many of the guys who appear in TV channels & other media – who have been describing this budget as *realisitic* one are more critical about that behind the curtain for obvious reasons.

Moreover, the statistics published in moneycontrol on FIIs open position on derivatives segments state:

A small statistics on FIIs activity on FnO segment

Begining of this March 2012 FnO series (24-Feb-2012 EOD Open Interest Position held by FII)

Index futures - 13396
Index Options – 35490
Stock futures – 26575
Stock Options – 758
NF closed on that day at: 5487

Today’s Postion: (19-03-2012 EOD Open Interest Position held by FII)

Index futures - 16282 (OI increased by – 2866)
Index Options – 49277 (OI increased by - 13787)
Stock futures – 29972 (OI increased by – 3397)
Stock Options – 1648 (OI increased by 890)
NF closed today at: 5277

All Open Interest figures of in Crores of Rupess.

FIIs are not that dumb – just to go on pumping the cheap money – they hedge their longs at the right price too....

This means to me that they are just waiting for this March 2012 series of FnO settlement to be over and beginning of the next series will be fully coloured with reds.

Moreover, during April 2012, we will 4th quarter results. Market pundits are working on re-valuation of each scrip’s future worthiness that needs to be taken in to consideration.

There is a market talk that says Infosys might stop giving future guidance from this April 2012 onwards.

Our own DIIs who have been net sellers since beginning of 2012 are famous for buying at panic lows when every one selling – that is yet to happen. Don’t expect long term bull markets without our DIIs. FIIs too who were on relentless buying will close the tap tightly and might start buying once they get clear picture by end April or May 2012.

Read this articles – that is stuffed with important statistics;

India Inc stressed: Debt recast zooms to Rs 76,251 cr in 2011-12 --- In 2011-12, corporate debt aggregating a whopping Rs 76,251 crore came up for restructuring before the Corporate Debt Rrestructuring Cell jointly promoted by banks and financial institutions. This is three times more than in the previous year, showing the growing stress on India Inc. As many as 95 banks and financial institutions are part of the CDR mechanism.

Read full article at:
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/article3017284.ece?homepage=true

Budget 2012: A tale of dire times, broken promises & more

"There is nothing in this Budget that's going to make people believe that India is now on a more credible long-term fiscal path," said Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. "Some of the concerns and risks that many people would have had before the Budget, stay in place."

His realisation that credible proposals are the need of the hour did not translate into action, pushing many to conclude that it may be yet another year of missed targets. Policy flip-flops have been many, but this Budget added yet another dimension to it by amending the Income Tax Act with retrospective effect.

Read full article at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/budget-2012-a-tale-of-dire-times-broken-promises-more/articleshow/12348349.cms

My observation Tough times ahead for bulls -- There is even talk that global market correction is now ripe. US markets reaching exuberance levels (read the article in Bloombers - that i posted here) --

Two important things - One if USD depreciates, definetly it is going to have inflationary effects on global OIL & Commodities prices. Alternatively, if USD appreciates further (that might happen due to some unrest in our western neighbour hood & Iran) see the exodus & rupee depreciation that results in higher oil prices. In both the ways, it is tough for our country -- Babus and netas sitting at Delhi are knowing it very well. But due to selfishness of netas our markets will suffer.

Keep hedging the longs -- take out some profits off the table might be good for us.

[givemegold]

Thuppakki kaiyil eduthu rendu thottavum paiyil eduthu kaalai suda pohum vazhithaan adu bhayandu ingu odum vazhithaan.... kaalai enga pochu kannu...adu mirandu urundu kidakku kannu....

Kaalai kutti oththayila povadula thappu undu, unna chuthi kooduthada karadi kootam... othaya chuthum kaalai vasama maatikitta, kudhari kummi adikkum karadi kootam.

[vinay28]

Even Mark Mobius has gone on record to say that liquidity will continue. What may happen is that interest in Nifty/Sensex scrips may wane and mid/small caps may shoot up. So hedging is enough, shifting may also be a good idea

[givemegold]

[givemegold]

[vinay28]

I think u missed my point. I said they may sell in large cap and thus nifty will go down but they may buy in mid/small caps

[givemegold]

[givemegold]

Look at what our FIIs are doing

Yesterday (21-03-2012 EOD data) they bought roughly around Rs.623 crroes in cash segment.

But in FnO segment they went long 1,733.74 crores !!!!! in a single day....
Morethan 200% of cash purchases were hedged at higher levels.....

If we compare it with 24-Feb-2012 EOD data... their OI in FnO segment increased by a whopping 22,227 Crores....

[vinay28]

we may have a very sharp rise in a short time

[rk_a2003]

[sairanga19]