iCharts Discussions

[shashangan]

You can place a buy when Gold spot touches anywhere between 1598.80 -1596.20 $. Target should be 1617 - 1618.50 $.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan

[shashangan]

I am sorry, the mkt did go a little more than what i expected lower. But the call was given last tuesday that by next tuesday mkt will try 1617 & above.

Shall try & give more time on analyzing it to get it more precise from next time. Having time constraints from work to sit & analyze thoroughly.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan

[shashangan]

Gold spot looks overall bearish to me. The mkt will try near 1550$ before March 15th again.

For intra day, I think mkt may see profit booking around 1620-22 highs & may not cross 1625$ for today only if extended, if I am not wrong.

Silver can try $ 28.10-27.90 area by 15th March.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan

[shashangan]

Gold is still overall down. You can short every pull back for 1555 $ area minimum target again by this month end. (Spot Basis)

For today 1609 to max 1612 area should give good resistance for shorts to enter.

Overall $ 1622 area should see very stiff resistance if it gets there. Any sharp move or close above 1625 will slow down the bearishness but doubtful according to me. I am confident Mkt will go below 1560 by this month end or max 1st week of April.

I can be wrong. Do your own analysis as well.

Only suggestion, if you want to win, play minimum, play with discipline & patience, dont average very close. Play always Mini. If you are a small player play Guinea. Play 1 lot keeping 4-5 lots margin, not the other way, what the broker would recommend. You will not lose.

Good luck with Regards,
Gautham Shashangan

[singh.ravee]

[shashangan]

I have played most mkt.s & from my experience & knowledge, 95% speculators lose in all speculative mkt, whether people believe it or not, it's a fact.

People make same mistakes every time. Only sometimes people are on the right side, most times most people are caught on the wrong side.

What is mm

Gautham Shashangan

[rsnerella]

mm = Money management. May be....

[shashangan]

Thanks Nerella,

Well if it's Money Mgt, it is a very vast topic in itself, What I have understood Money Mgt overall is not about investment in stock or speculative mkt. It's much more than that.

If you want to apply it only for speculative mkt, then yes, it's about how strong is your analysis or the source of your view, followed by thinking every time how much risk I should take in such uncertain mkt.s. Should I take an impulsive entry or just stay out & wait for more confirmed entry.

More precisely what percentage or what part of the investor's wealth should be put into risk in order to maximize the investor's portfolio, by committing only the money you can afford to lose. If I lost the money I stop trading till I have some more money to write off.

Also analysing your Trading system - if a trading system has 50% losing probability and 50% winning possibility, using money management a trader can set his average win substantially higher compared to his average loss in order to produce a profitable trading system.

A good trader or a good system should be able to give at least 15-20 points or 200-300 Rs profit from his entry call. He should be able to tell where to enter with a stop.

So applying discipline & study of all your right & wrong entries & your strike rate would make you a good investor.
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Eg: For 25000 Rs Investment any return above 9% i.e 2250 Rs p.a is good because you can get that return if you put your money in Bank.

In 4 Days - Say you normally do 10 Trades

Winning Entries - 225 Rs (x) 5 Trades = Rs 1125 Profit (-) 150 Rs commission = 975 - Net Profit

Losing Entries - 150 Rs (x) 5 Trades = Rs 750 Loss (+) 150 Rs commission = 900 Rs - Net Loss

Result of 10 trades - Rs 975 Profit (-) Rs. 900 Loss = 75 Rs Net profit in 4 days is good.

So avg 20 working days you would make 75 (x) 5 = 375 Rs per month.

375 (x) 12 months = 4500 Rs p. a return for your 25000 investment. i.e - 18% double of what you get from Bank.

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Case 2 - In 5 Days - Say you did 10 Trades. i.e., 2 trades per day

Winning Entries - 300 Rs (x) 5 Trades = Rs 1500 Profit (-) 150 Rs commission = 1350 - Net Profit

Losing Entries - 200 Rs (x) 5 Trades = Rs 1000 Loss (+) 150 Rs commission = 1150 Rs - Net Loss

Result of 10 trades - Rs 1350 Profit (-) Rs. 1150 Loss = 200 Rs Net profit in 5 days is very good.

So avg 20 working days you would make 200 (x) 4 = 800 Rs per month.

800 (x) 12 months = 9600 Rs p. a return for your 25000 investment. i.e - roughly 38% four five times more than what you get from Bank.

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The above is only an example. I am not taking cumulative calculation since it can be confusing. But this is a very simple method, how you analyse your performance & trades. It's not only about analysing the mkt.

A good trader is somebody who can make 15-25% p.a.
A very good trader is somebody who can make 30-40% p.a.
An excellent trader is somebody who can make 40-50% p.a.

An Outstanding Trader is somebody who can make 50-60% p.a - If somebody is promising you they can give that return consistently - He will mostly be a very famous person who will be with a Big renowned co. or somebody representing a Bank or who's on TV or somebody's name which can be found easily on Net if you search. Dont get fooled by every Tom Dick & Harry saying they can give that return, it will always be the other way around with them. Remember a person who can give that return doesn't have to market his skill, his performance will market his name.. Investors will want him to manage their funds & not the other way. If they are not famous & really has the skill, they will say take my view for sometime & only once you are convinced you invest, they will not force or be desperate to get investors.

Only a magician can double your money in speculative markets. He will be one in a million. You very rarely find such people. Any person who says the can double the money in 2-3 month is not a trader - they are gamblers & mostly cheats, who has no discipline or proper knowledge of trading. 99.99% guaranteed, They will lose all your money. Common sense if somebody can double the money, they should be driving the best car & be in the world's billionaires list, they will be managing their own funds than asking people to invest. This is what I believe from my experience.

The key to successful money management is maximizing every winning trades and minimizing losses (regardless whether you have winning or losing trading system.

Sorry if it doesn't make sense. May be somebody can define it even better. That's all the patience I have to write.

Thanks & Good luck
Gautham Shashangan

[shashangan]

Target achieved.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

[rsnerella]

Good one shashangan

[shashangan]

Thanks Nerella,

Gautham Shashangan

[shashangan]

All Longs in Gold be careful dont play without stops.

If I am not wrong Gold might see a huge crash. 1410-07 could be the next stop followed by 1170-67 $ spot basis.

Though early it may even try 980 or lower.

Play minimum. Play cautiously. Good luck. I could be wrong, Kindly do your own analysis.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

[krishnanpanju]

800 $ possible sir....

[shashangan]

Little too early to say Krishna. But it's a possibility. There is a target showing 775-73 region.

I know lot of people will be thinking something is wrong in my head. But if not in a year, Gold will definitely test this level with in 2016 for sure according to me.

Lot of people have been telling me mad, since I had told this 2 years back. Possibly by 2015 Gold will be below half the price from the top.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

[shashangan]

Possible Projection - Gold Monthly $ terms.

Please this is purely my view, kindly do your own analysis. I can be wrong.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan