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From which Method early trend change should get found |
Moving Averages |
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16% |
[ 31 ] |
Indicators |
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11% |
[ 22 ] |
Candelstics |
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33% |
[ 63 ] |
Mov Avg with Indicators |
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21% |
[ 40 ] |
Breakout Trading |
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17% |
[ 34 ] |
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Total Votes : 190 |
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How to catch early TREND REVERSAL |
systrader White Belt
Joined: 25 Apr 2013 Posts: 129
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Post: #76 Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2014 8:02 pm Post subject: Re: Strategy #5 |
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systrader wrote: | STRATEGY 5 Trading the Flag
A flag is a classic technical analysis pattern that predates anyone reading this article. If you are unfamiliar with the pattern it’s a sloping rectangular formation that occurs after a strong move. The primary characteristics of the formation are an increase in volume with a sharp price move. The stock then begins to consolidate in a range pattern that goes counter to the trend and volume completely dries up.
While I do not trade flags, I do like the fact the formation is soundly based on price and volume principles.
Flag Rules
1. Stock needs to breakout with high volume
2. A sloping rectangular range will develop with a minimum of 4 candlesticks
3. Open new positions on a breakout above or below the range
4. The profit target is the same length of the move that preceded the flag formation
5. Stops should be placed below the low of the range if going long and above the high of the range if going short
Trader Profile – Flags
1. Less concerned with a particular time of day and more focused on trading the setup
2. Likes to see a number of inside bars and consolidation patterns before a continuation move
3. Enjoys riding the primary trend to profits, regardless if this takes a few minutes or a few hours
4. Only looking to trade a stock once, in order to reap the rewards of the next major move
With Thanks
@SYSTRADER(Happy Trading) |
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systrader White Belt
Joined: 25 Apr 2013 Posts: 129
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Post: #77 Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:43 pm Post subject: Strategy #6 |
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STRATEGY 6 Triangles
I trade the Wyckoff method which calls for parallel trend channels and stays away from the head and shoulders patterns, diamond formations, and other complicated chart formations. However, I would be re-missed if I did not touch on the concept of ascending and descending triangles. Like the flag formation an ascending or descending triangle will develop after a strong move in a stock. The part of the triangle formation I like the most is that the reactions are smaller and smaller each failed attempt at the breakout level.
Funny enough when a trade goes against me, the ascending or descending triangle is the one formation that you can literally feel pulling away at your life. If you are short, the stock fails at the high of the day, so you immediately feel relieved as the stock backs away. This flash of hope is replaced by fear as the stock quickly turns back up again and does not break the previous low of the day. This process goes on and on, for what feels like ages, and by the time the stock finally breaks out, you already knew you were toast two hours into the formation.
Triangle Rules
1. Stock needs to have a strong move with price and volume
Once a high or low is set, each reaction from that swing point should become more shallow
2. Buy or sell short the break of the daily range
Place your stop below the last swing reaction if long and above the last swing if short
3. Profit target is the length of the move that preceded the triangle formation
Trading Profile – Triangles
1. Less concerned with a particular time of day and more focused on trading the setup
2. Likes to see a number of inside bars and consolidation patterns on a chart
3. Enjoys riding the primary trend to profits, regardless if this takes a few minutes or a few hours
4. Only looking to trade a stock once, in order to reap the rewards of the next major move
With Thanks
@SYSTRADER(happy Trading)
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systrader White Belt
Joined: 25 Apr 2013 Posts: 129
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Post: #78 Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2014 1:52 pm Post subject: Counter Trend |
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How much is it benificial to trend counter i.e doing oppposite of what do you think ( If you think for BUY while watching the chart go for SELL and vice versa) this is a concept well used earlier by renouned trader but how much is it BENIFICIAL in real life during market hours not during off hours because drection is clearly visible in charts after market hours but poduces whishaps only while the charts are live running.
(Comment on above)
Thanks
@SYSTRADER
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systrader White Belt
Joined: 25 Apr 2013 Posts: 129
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Post: #79 Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2015 11:54 pm Post subject: Re: Strategy #6 |
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systrader wrote: | STRATEGY 6 Triangles
I trade the Wyckoff method which calls for parallel trend channels and stays away from the head and shoulders patterns, diamond formations, and other complicated chart formations. However, I would be re-missed if I did not touch on the concept of ascending and descending triangles. Like the flag formation an ascending or descending triangle will develop after a strong move in a stock. The part of the triangle formation I like the most is that the reactions are smaller and smaller each failed attempt at the breakout level.
Funny enough when a trade goes against me, the ascending or descending triangle is the one formation that you can literally feel pulling away at your life. If you are short, the stock fails at the high of the day, so you immediately feel relieved as the stock backs away. This flash of hope is replaced by fear as the stock quickly turns back up again and does not break the previous low of the day. This process goes on and on, for what feels like ages, and by the time the stock finally breaks out, you already knew you were toast two hours into the formation.
Triangle Rules
1. Stock needs to have a strong move with price and volume
Once a high or low is set, each reaction from that swing point should become more shallow
2. Buy or sell short the break of the daily range
Place your stop below the last swing reaction if long and above the last swing if short
3. Profit target is the length of the move that preceded the triangle formation
Trading Profile – Triangles
1. Less concerned with a particular time of day and more focused on trading the setup
2. Likes to see a number of inside bars and consolidation patterns on a chart
3. Enjoys riding the primary trend to profits, regardless if this takes a few minutes or a few hours
4. Only looking to trade a stock once, in order to reap the rewards of the next major move
With Thanks
@SYSTRADER(happy Trading) |
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systrader White Belt
Joined: 25 Apr 2013 Posts: 129
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Post: #80 Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:08 am Post subject: Starting Again |
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a)Trades – TA is best used to identify short term trades. Do not use TA to identify long term investment opportunities. Long term investment opportunities are best identified using fundamental analysis. Also, If you are a fundamental analyst, use TA to calibrate the entry and exit points
b)Return per trade – TA based trades are usually short term in nature. Do not expect huge returns within a short duration of time. The trick with being successful with TA is to identify frequent short term trading opportunities which can give you small but consistent profits.
c)Holding Period – Trades based on technical analysis can last anywhere between few minutes and few weeks, and usually not beyond that. We will explore this aspect when we discuss the topic on timeframes.
d)Risk – Often traders initiate a trade for a certain reason, however in case of an adverse movement in the stock, the trade starts making a loss. Usually in such situations, traders hold on to their loss making trade with a hope they can recover the loss. Remember, TA based trades are short term, in case the trade goes sour, do remember to cut the losses and move on to identify another opportunity.
@SYSTRADER(Happy Trading)
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systrader White Belt
Joined: 25 Apr 2013 Posts: 129
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Post: #81 Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:12 am Post subject: Technical Analysis |
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systrader wrote: | Technical Analysis,
what is it?
Consider this analogy.
Imagine you are vacationing in a foreign country where everything including the language, culture, climate, and food is new to you. On day 1, you do the regular touristy activities, and by evening you are very hungry. You want to end your day by having a great dinner. You ask around for a good restaurant and you are told about a nice food street which is close by. You decide to give it a try.
To your surprise, there are many vendors selling different varieties of food. Everything looks different and interesting. You are absolutely clueless as to what to eat for dinner. To add to your dilemma you cannot ask around as you do not know the local language. So given all this, how will you make a decision on what to eat?
Well, you have two options to figure out what to eat.
Option 1: You visit a vendor, figure out what they are cooking / selling. Check on the ingredients used, cooking style, probably taste a bit and figure out if you actually like the food. You repeat this exercise across a few vendors, after which you would most likely end up eating at a place that satisfies you the most.
The advantage with this technique is that you know exactly what you are eating since you have researched about it on your own. However on the flip side, the methodology you adopted is not really scalable as there could be about 100 odd vendors, and with limited time at your disposal, you can probably cover about 4 or 5 vendors. Hence there is a high probability that you could have missed the best tasting food on the street!
Option 2: You just stand in a corner and observe all the vendors. You try and find a vendor who is attracting the maximum crowd. Once you find such a vendor you make a simple assumption -‘The vendor is attracting so many customers which means he must be making the best food!’ Based on your assumption and the crowd’s preference you decide to go to that particular vendor for your dinner. Chances are that you could be eating the best tasting food available on the street.
The advantage of this method is the scalability. You just need to spot the vendor with the maximum number of customers and bet on the fact that the food is good based on the crowd’s preference. However, on the flipside the crowd need not always be right.
If you could recognize, option 1 is very similar to Fundamental Analysis where you research about a few companies thoroughly. We will explore about Fundamental Analysis in greater detail in the next module.
Option 2 is very similar to Technical Analysis where one scans for opportunities based on the current trend aka the preference of the market.
Technical Analysis is a research technique to identify trading opportunities in market based on the actions of market participants. The actions of markets participants can be visualized by means of a stock chart. Over time, patterns are formed within these charts and each pattern conveys a certain message. The job of a technical analyst is to identify these patterns and develop a point of view.
Like any research technique, technical analysis stands on a bunch of assumptions. As a practitioner of technical analysis, you need to trade the markets keeping these assumptions in perspective. Of course we will understand these assumptions in details as we proceed along.
Also, at this point it makes sense to throw some light on a matter concerning FA and TA. Often people get into the argument contending a particular research technique is a better approach to market. However in reality there is no such thing as the best research approach. Every research method has its own merits and demerits. It would be futile to spend time comparing TA and FA in order to figure out which is a better approach.
Both the techniques are different and not comparable. In fact a prudent trader would spend time educating himself on both the techniques so that he can identify great trading or investing opportunities.
@SYSTRADER(Happy Trading) |
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vinodgogia White Belt
Joined: 28 Sep 2010 Posts: 20
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Post: #82 Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:55 pm Post subject: moving avg. |
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i have studied many charts since long, and understood one thing " price movement takes lace first and then any other indicator moves accordingly. and there is no method to predict price, it is merely estimated and which moves some time and many times fails. every instrument has different tools which works sometimes. There is no single strategy suits all instruments.
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systrader White Belt
Joined: 25 Apr 2013 Posts: 129
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Post: #83 Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2015 9:30 pm Post subject: Re: moving avg. |
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vinodgogia wrote: | i have studied many charts since long, and understood one thing " price movement takes lace first and then any other indicator moves accordingly. and there is no method to predict price, it is merely estimated and which moves some time and many times fails. every instrument has different tools which works sometimes. There is no single strategy suits all instruments. |
Well I too worked with many indicators but the thing is The Indicators shows entry when stocks already moved alot and viceversa the late exit signal is shown by indicator In both sides we loose point. The thing is indicators are based on price movement. All the indicators are late and lagging in nature and the only Indicator which is leading is Price movement. Even though every system fails some time so it is guranted that this also fails but the thing is the exit and entry would be much early which saves some point which we loose otherwise The second thing is the sucess ratio is much higher.
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sherbaaz Yellow Belt
Joined: 27 May 2009 Posts: 543
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Post: #84 Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 9:36 am Post subject: |
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hi,
if you want to catch early trend reversal find where accumulation is ending and go long or find where distribution is ending and go short.
in your poll you have not included volume & momentum to find trend reversal where as...
momentum precedes price, speed of momentum precedes momentum and volume precedes speed of momentum.
If you can find ways/method to see above then u can catch early trend reversal as its not indicators/osc/ma/support & ret etc which changes the trend its imbalance of supply and demand which changes the trend be it a tick chart or a monthly chart.
regds,
[/b]
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systrader White Belt
Joined: 25 Apr 2013 Posts: 129
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Post: #85 Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 2:34 pm Post subject: Nifty spot prediction @ 9:48 AM |
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Shoutbox Snapshot at 9.48 AM
nifty sellgiven @8584 and 8575
with the name of rohit.kumar4000(@SYSTRADER)
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Shoutbox Snapshot at 9.48 AM |
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Last edited by systrader on Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:32 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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systrader White Belt
Joined: 25 Apr 2013 Posts: 129
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Post: #86 Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:25 pm Post subject: Nifty chart after prediction |
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Ichart snap shot @ 9:49 AM
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systrader White Belt
Joined: 25 Apr 2013 Posts: 129
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Post: #87 Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:28 pm Post subject: Nifty chart after prediction |
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Nifty chart @ 10:00 AM
SL given is 8607.90
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systrader White Belt
Joined: 25 Apr 2013 Posts: 129
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Post: #88 Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:35 pm Post subject: Shout Box Message at 2:17 PM |
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SL trailed at 2:17 PM @ 8575 the entry point
by rohit.kumar4000(@SYSTRADER)
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systrader White Belt
Joined: 25 Apr 2013 Posts: 129
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Post: #89 Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:38 pm Post subject: Nifty chart after prediction |
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Nifty Chart @ 2:19 PM
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systrader White Belt
Joined: 25 Apr 2013 Posts: 129
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Post: #90 Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:43 pm Post subject: Shoutbox Profit booking Message |
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50% profit booking Message @ 2:35PM
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100 % Profit Booking @ 3:19 PM |
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50 % profit Booking Message |
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