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How To Identify Nifty Bottom |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #16  Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2011 8:34 pm Post subject: |
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| My dear Holla, do you think SEBI is not aware of it? |
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Arjun20
Yellow Belt
Joined: 23 Jun 2011
Posts: 945
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| Post: #17 Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2011 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | Friends: it is called CARRY TRADE. They get loans @ 1-2% in Japan/ US and come here with automated systems and throw crores at market. Make 10%, go back and return the loan. Recent Diwali Muhurat options trading of BSE negated because of faulty automatic trading SW of one broker. I believe some brokers are paying crores to buy/ lease office space near NSE in Worli to get fraction of second advantage over others (meaning people like us!). Have you noticed how frequently our stop losses are nowadays ignored or left unfulfilled as Nifty or other scrip zooms up or down vertically: caused by 2 brokers playing the fool with each other aided by auto systems !!!
We should raise our voices and demand more regulation of such brokers/ FIIs as the problems surfacing in NYSE/ Chicago/ London will sooner or later bug NSE also. |
Dear PKH, This thing is interesting. If u have further details about their operandy, will like to hear. Broker names i'm not interested as u can not disclose. |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #18 Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2011 9:45 am Post subject: |
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Arjun&PKH
NSE it self is allowing to install the private servers just beside NSE Main Server by charging some amount.... regarding which there was a lot of criticism.
This world is like this.... Equality is only on paper.Rubbish Social Systems.   |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #19 Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2011 9:52 am Post subject: |
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My dear friends: NSE/ SEBI/ Fin Min being aware and doing something about it are two different things! I simply feel the more people protest and raise a fuss the sooner will our authorities take action. Take a step NOW. If your stop loss was ignored then open NSE website and write a complaint about your stop loss being ignored by sharp movements in shares/ index with details AND say you suspect automated trading is the culprit AND demand action be taken against the broker
Arjun20: Mentioning names can be done by you also. Just investigate who are the brokers/ foreign banks employed by FIIs and there u have it! (Even easier, if u are not from Bombay, just ask someone u know who trades there)
Regards, Prakash Holla |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #20 Posted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 7:58 pm Post subject: Re: How To Identify Nifty Bottom |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | It was said that no one can catch a bottom ( In fact technically speaking at least one person can ,someone should be there at the bottom )
There is a co relation to US$-INR Exchange rates and Index value .It’s not a Total and Direct relation But it could be used as a leading Indicator.
We all knew when FII’s with draw from equity market they sell in rupees and take away the Dollors and rupee depreciates.
See the table below how rupee is at its low when Market is at around bottom.
There are so many other factors that are influencing rupee depreciation. Increasing Crude Imports , Strengthening Dolor Etc.
However Investors may keep a note of this also for identifying market bottom. You may also compare the PE ratio of Nifty/Sensex also .
Compare the PE ratio of NIFTY/Sensex during march 2009 bottom ( Nifty PE was just above 12 , Sensex PE was just above 9), to catch a bottom. Don’t go by absolute value of Index go by PE ratio.
What happened during 2008-09 crash?. Sensex hit bottom of 8891 when INR depreciated by around 22% to 51.67.
Can we anticipate similar action this time ? Sensex/Nifty to reach bottom when USD/INR=52 – 54 (1.20*45).
Date $/INR Sensex
03-Aug-08 42.19 14656
08-Sep-08 45.87 14483
06-Oct-08 48.44 12526
27-Oct-08 49.41 8701
01-Dec-08 49.54 9092
02-Mar-09 51.67 8891
15-Jun-09 48.06 15237
12-Oct-09 46.22 16642
08-Nov-10 44.98 21004
11-Jul-11 44.47 18858
25-Sep-11 49.07 16162
But, Don't use it for Timing, only use it to Identify Bottomed out range and can be used for Investing.
Regards
RK |
Now US$-INR exchange rate touched 53+ and hovering around 52 .It might have coincided with the withdrawal of funds by FII’s.Experts shouting that Indian rupee may see even 56-58 levels. Horrible…In not too far away times i.e. in 1980 US $ INR exchange rate was 7.887. Can you believe it? Our country expanded in to huge market compared to 1980’s, Human resources flourished like any thing ,GDP increased multifold for which there are very few comparisons in the world. Then why is this devaluation?
The reason – spineless Indian political class. It has no will to take up the development .No courage for self rule. No commitment towards the people of this nation. It just obeying and following the orders issued by so called Developed Nations. They submitted them selves to the authority of the western world. They even don’t have guts to bargain like China. Thought less RBI, Spine less MOF, Will less PMO .What more we can expect?
Still keeping in view the inherent strength of Indian Economy Rupee can not sustain at these levels for longer time. I can not give an exact time frame but with in a year or so it has to come down around 40.
Keep in mind… Equity market fall coupled with rupee devaluation may turn Indian Shares so attractive that at some point fresh foreign funds may rush in to India like a flood. The point just before that could be the bottom for our Markets. I can explain it in theory but please don’t ask me to pin point that actual point of time. Regarding which no one will be aware of. For sure It’s a natural dynamics and it has to happen. |
Indian rupee did reached 54 and now came down.When it was around 54 Equity market appears to be bottomed out at least for intermediate term.
Some one who took long positions at that level are in good profit now at least by 10 % or may be more in case they took positions in beaten down and fundamentally strong scrips.Now they can not get in to loss if they follow a reasonable SL setting.
So.....It works guys.  |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
Posts: 866
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| Post: #21 Posted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 8:10 pm Post subject: |
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RK this stuff is for Market Mastermind!
Pls post there also- as Market Bottom |
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