iCharts Discussions

[anupsb]

Sorry guys, to disappoint you!!!! but this Topic is about End of Bull market, hence I will try to highlight those points which will support the thread.

One more thing I will try to highlight, Way banks are rallying after FM's announcement on " Bad Loans Resolution" again creates some divergence.

For example, BankNifty is trading at ALL Time High level. Where as Bank's NPA's are quoting at historical Peak Levels.This is a clear divergence in Fundamental data and Price where banks are trading at. State Bank Of India which is a largest bank in India Trades at PE of 51.5. In short market is Pricing too much of Optimistic scenario,

Idle scenario should have been, till Banks NPA's bottom out and starts improving Bank Index went into sideways consolidation near say November lows. Then after few quarters Price and Fundamental Data gets in-sync, which in turn would have " Built a Proper Base" for a Next Bull Market.

Banknifty is sole contributor to this ATH rally of Nifty. Where I think major divergence in data is seen. 'IT sector' is going through some serious " Structural Changes" and Pharma Sector also going through it's own share of problems. Two leading sectors which drove Nifty to ATH in 2015 not supporting Market.

Bulls will say " Sector Rotation going On"..... agreed, But my thread deals with " Reasons why Bull Mkt should End" hence again some Warnings from " Lone Bear.

[anupsb]

Greetings of The Day!!! I am uploading a chart, where Nifty is creating a strong confluence zone in 9328 to 9384, where This rally should stop.

Price is making series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows. On EOD 9075 zone needs to be watched. Once this level goes this rally comes to an end.

Till that happens Enjoy the rally!! with Extreme Caution and very Tight Stop Losses.

[Niftyman]

But where is heavy confluence there is the chart.

No, not likely to fall in next week, so as to say.

BankNifty, will come as a survivor for Nifty, if there happens any minor dip.

IMO, Nifty is likely to reach about 9500 (may be a few points here or there)in next 7/10 days. (though reaching there earlier, is not ruled out )

I will divide reaching upto 9500 as following:

upto 9400 - 90-100% probability.
upto 9450 - 75-80% probability
upto 9475 - 60% probability
upto 9500 - 50-60% probability

This rally will be in trouble, only when trades below 9200 and not before that.

[anupsb]

Finally some signs of " Reversal" as Nifty made a Double Top around 9700 zone and broke 9500 on downside to confirm it.
Now after Dec 2016 post demonetization low, chartically this is the first sign of Nifty breaking a Higher Low on downside.

Now as this thread focuses on more of fundamental data, I will like to share two comparisons why Bull Market is coming to
an end.

In 2008 Jan, PE of Nifty was around 28. GDP Growth Rate in 2008 was around 9.7%. IIP was around 13.7. INR was trading
around 39.

In 2017 Jun, PE of Nifty is around 24.50. GDP Growth Rate in 2017 in 7.1%. IIP is around 2.7. INR is trading around 64.

Going by above data, in 2008 Growth was much more stronger than today's. In 2008 no doubt Nifty's PE went to as high as
28, but at 9700 we were in the range of 24.75.

Now as " Pace of Economy" is much slower than in 2008. Today we are going for GST, where no one has idea what disruptions
it will create in economy, Banks today face much more serious issues of NPA's.

As I stress again, instead of focusing on such issues, Market is trying to discount what impact will happen after 2 years.
This is a clear divergence in fundamental data and Price at which we are trading at.

So again I will caution everybody that minimum of 25% to 30% correction in indices is opening UP. So please be extra carefull with
your investments!!!

[Niftyman]

Good !!!!!!!!!!
You are here again

Market is going to move up, some 300/400 points from here in next 10/15 days .

[anupsb]

Hi, NiftyMan. Good for you if market keeps going UP, whenever I post my Bearish Views. Just see how much
" Important My Views are" as soon as my views comes Mkt bottoms and keeps moving UP.

But my friend, I am not here to catch Top or Bottom. If Nifty goes up to 10000, and if you
make money good for you. I am just here to highlight some " irrationalities" which market highlights, as
" Markets doesn't behave rationally". Purpose of this thread is to " Highlight those Irrationalities".

So Best Of Luck!!!

[Niftyman]

No, you are trying to spread scare by your words
In April you were stopping the rally by 9400 and it went beyond 9700
Now again posting similar

What does this para means
"So again I will caution everybody that minimum of 25% to 30% correction in indices is opening UP. So please be extra carefull with "

Do you understand the meaning of a fall of about 2500/2800 points in NIFTY

[pkholla]

My two cents:
1 Reliance Inds showing no sign of weakness. In fact recently Modi sarkar has given $ 1 higher realization for K-G basin product + MUCH HIGHER RESERVES FOUND BY RIL+ Brit Petroleum (partner). Also Jio has started charging so losses lower than in intro stage
2 Where else can hot money go?
SKorea/ Brazil/ Taiwan female presidents in hot water/ jail so investors will hesitate
Russia/ Ukraine/ East Europe shaky due to Putin
Indonesia in grip of Islamic extremists who give 2nd imp to investment (Tata Power lost $$$$ bn in Indon coal mine investment)
West Europe? Poor growth, large migrant community = violence, anti business/ industry bias = huge penalties on even small mistakes like on Google recently
China growth story over
Japan murda since 1995

SO KAUN BAKI HAI???? HAMARA BHARAT MAHAN!

I will even go so far as 2 say that 10500 is on the cards (may be after very minor correction) LED BY KINGKONG RELIANCE INDS!!!!!

Cheers, Prakash Holla

PS I just re-read VINAY28's post about wait till June end and see. I think this remark could be prophetic

[anupsb]

NiftyMan, Why you are so much concerned about my levels??? You already shared your views here by saying market going up
by 400 to 500 points after my posts. So you should take Longs accordingly with proper Risk management.

Regarding that para, it simply means such corrections are possible in markets, I am not giving numbers which we have not
seen. Look at history of Tops, 2008/2011/2015, whenever they happened it corrected by %s I have mentioned.Don't get
panicked?? cheer up!!!

And regarding scare, you think I am scaring people, I think if someone agrees to my views and protects his profits accordingly
that will be of great news. That is the only intention of this thread.

And I am not a biggie who will write something and market will "selloff" on my views. So don't worry!!!!!

[anupsb]

@ pkholla

Thanks Sir, Appreciate your views!!!!

[Niftyman]

The sky is falling
someone plz hold it

[pkholla]

[anupsb]

@ pkholla

2 Mukaisbhai has used his bargaining clout, y'day, to SUBSTANTIALLY lower his interest burden on 196,000 cr loans outstanding on Jio/ Fiber network kharcha. The higher income from K-G basin will easily allow him to pay back the principal
This is no doubt good news for RIL which is good news for N50 as RIL is a heavyweight on the index!
Cheers, Prakash Holla


I agree with your view on Reliance. Reliance has broken out from 8 years range. So frankly I have no idea whether RELIANCE alone can lift Nifty to your target.

But I am trying to see another indicators, like NiftyMidcap100 and Nifty Junior both Important when it comes to Midcaps. Both of them failing to clear 16th May TOP they made, when Nifty and Sensex were making All Time Highs for a month. Now I guess its called " Inter market Divergence" between two major indices!!!! That's a major worry for me. Thanks!!

[anupsb]

Chart Is Self Explanatory!!!

And congratulations to all Bulls!!!