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Is Bull Market Coming to an End??? |
anupsb
White Belt
Joined: 04 May 2007
Posts: 21
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Post: #1  Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:56 pm Post subject: Is Bull Market Coming to an End??? |
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" Is this guy Mad??? Nifty is trading at All Time Highs and this guy is talking about End of Bull Market which started some 13 years ago".
This is the obvious reaction I would expect, whoever read this Title of my Post and I have my share of reasons that something is wrong.
Reason 1:-
Nifty topped out on Jan 2015 and it took just 2 years to breach ATH. If we study fundamentals,when Nifty Made ATH of 9119 in March 2015 we were Trading at a PE multiple 23.86 which translates into EPS of Rs 382.15.
After 2 years Nifty is trading around 9123 in March 2017, or PE of 23.78 which translates into EPS of Rs 383.65.
Since two years have passed there is absolutely no growth in earnings of Nifty companies, and its practically FLAT.
Reason 2:-
Recent RBI data of loan growth suggests that Loan Growth Year On year slowed down to some 62 year low. ( source:- http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/loan-growth-declines-to-a-62-year-low-of-5-1-rbi-data/articleshow/56389670.cms).
Now this is some serious Divergence in Fundamental Data and where Sensex/Nifty trading at. If loan growth is slowing down at such lowest level, still Nifty chooses to trade at relatively Higher Valuation of 23.70 PE.Any conservative investor will think if there is no growth in earnings then why to give market such a Higher Valuations,as earnings remained Flat for 2 years with no absolute growth.In short it translates into " Euphoric Conditions" in markets.
Conclusion:-
In technical terms, there is absolutely no reason that this Bull Market is ending, But going by above data its certainly time to be extra cautious. Because I personally believe whenever reversal takes place its going to be same as 2008 Fall!!! |
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Niftyman
White Belt
Joined: 22 Mar 2015
Posts: 340
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| Post: #2 Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:43 pm Post subject: |
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In short, bull run not ending any soon.
Fundamentally, there is no euphoria about marketing testing and nearing at ATH
Technically, till NIFTY is above 9000 or does not breach 8900 and stays below it. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #3 Posted: Wed Mar 22, 2017 8:16 am Post subject: Re: Is Bull Market Coming to an End??? |
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| anupsb wrote: | " Is this guy Mad??? Nifty is trading at All Time Highs and this guy is talking about End of Bull Market which started some 13 years ago".
This is the obvious reaction I would expect, whoever read this Title of my Post and I have my share of reasons that something is wrong.
Reason 1:-
Nifty topped out on Jan 2015 and it took just 2 years to breach ATH. If we study fundamentals,when Nifty Made ATH of 9119 in March 2015 we were Trading at a PE multiple 23.86 which translates into EPS of Rs 382.15.
After 2 years Nifty is trading around 9123 in March 2017, or PE of 23.78 which translates into EPS of Rs 383.65.
Since two years have passed there is absolutely no growth in earnings of Nifty companies, and its practically FLAT.
Reason 2:-
Recent RBI data of loan growth suggests that Loan Growth Year On year slowed down to some 62 year low. ( source:- http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/loan-growth-declines-to-a-62-year-low-of-5-1-rbi-data/articleshow/56389670.cms).
Now this is some serious Divergence in Fundamental Data and where Sensex/Nifty trading at. If loan growth is slowing down at such lowest level, still Nifty chooses to trade at relatively Higher Valuation of 23.70 PE.Any conservative investor will think if there is no growth in earnings then why to give market such a Higher Valuations,as earnings remained Flat for 2 years with no absolute growth.In short it translates into " Euphoric Conditions" in markets.
Conclusion:-
In technical terms, there is absolutely no reason that this Bull Market is ending, But going by above data its certainly time to be extra cautious. Because I personally believe whenever reversal takes place its going to be same as 2008 Fall!!! |
right or wrong, I have been selling my stocks for a month. |
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Niftyman
White Belt
Joined: 22 Mar 2015
Posts: 340
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| Post: #4 Posted: Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:22 am Post subject: |
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On last occasion, Nifty moved 1000 points,
this time will move atleast 400/500 points
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #5 Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:15 pm Post subject: Re: Is Bull Market Coming to an End??? |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | anupsb wrote: | " Is this guy Mad??? Nifty is trading at All Time Highs and this guy is talking about End of Bull Market which started some 13 years ago".
This is the obvious reaction I would expect, whoever read this Title of my Post and I have my share of reasons that something is wrong.
Reason 1:-
Nifty topped out on Jan 2015 and it took just 2 years to breach ATH. If we study fundamentals,when Nifty Made ATH of 9119 in March 2015 we were Trading at a PE multiple 23.86 which translates into EPS of Rs 382.15.
After 2 years Nifty is trading around 9123 in March 2017, or PE of 23.78 which translates into EPS of Rs 383.65.
Since two years have passed there is absolutely no growth in earnings of Nifty companies, and its practically FLAT.
Reason 2:-
Recent RBI data of loan growth suggests that Loan Growth Year On year slowed down to some 62 year low. ( source:- http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/loan-growth-declines-to-a-62-year-low-of-5-1-rbi-data/articleshow/56389670.cms).
Now this is some serious Divergence in Fundamental Data and where Sensex/Nifty trading at. If loan growth is slowing down at such lowest level, still Nifty chooses to trade at relatively Higher Valuation of 23.70 PE.Any conservative investor will think if there is no growth in earnings then why to give market such a Higher Valuations,as earnings remained Flat for 2 years with no absolute growth.In short it translates into " Euphoric Conditions" in markets.
Conclusion:-
In technical terms, there is absolutely no reason that this Bull Market is ending, But going by above data its certainly time to be extra cautious. Because I personally believe whenever reversal takes place its going to be same as 2008 Fall!!! |
right or wrong, I have been selling my stocks for a month. |
In my (humble) view , wrong ( unless u intend to buy back at lower levels ... Meaning subjectivity say at 8600 etc....)
At what levels would u look to buy or after what timeframe! |
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anupsb
White Belt
Joined: 04 May 2007
Posts: 21
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| Post: #6 Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:26 am Post subject: |
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Thank you all for your kind replies!!.
Kindly note I am not into business of Predicting Tops or Bottoms. I am just trying to share my views which holds Importance to me.
Below are the charts for Sensex, Nifty, Banknfity,Nifty Junior. As one can clearly see that Nifty did manage to breach its All Time High( ATH) of 2015, but Sensex has failed to do so.
If one can see SensexEod, its a possible " Island Reversal" happening at very Important TOP. As of now that Gap which it left on 22/03/2017 is not fully closed.Same is the case for Banknifty.
Nifty Junior index which is main gauge of sentiment for mid caps, is showing a " Rising Wedge" which is developing on it's weekly charts since Aug 2015.Look at negative Rsi divergence and Nifty Junior hitting upper Trendline of that Wedge.
All above charts which I tried to analyze, are kind of out of sync. Like Sensex fails to Hit ATH followed by possible " Island Reversal". Nifty Junior since last 1.5 years making a " Rising Wedge" at top which indicates bearishness.
Hence I again stress my point, this time with help of charts that something is wrong with this " Nifty Breaking ATH" and its time to be Ultra Cautious!!!!. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #7 Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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The bull run will not stop. Nifty may pause, consolidate and trade sideways, or even correct 10-15% if at all for 1-2 years. It would be a mistake to exit.
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Disclaimer: Anything posted by me related to the stocks / indices are just my personal views and observations that are open for discussion. They maybe what I have traded, but neither of them are a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice. So if anyone feels enticed, get an opinion from registered SEBI analyst to make your trading decisions.
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #8 Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:08 pm Post subject: India favored destination |
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Our share market is driven by FIIs since past many years:
India is favored destination for foreen funds
Why? Brazil ke (female) Prez in jail
S Korea ke (female) Prez in jail
Taiwan ke (female) Prez seen as weak
Indonesia overturning business deals (like Rotten Thatha's purchase of coal mine shares), shaking foreign investor conf in Indon
Russia Prez seen as madman after invasion of Ukraine, Russia is therefore out
East Europe seen as undependable, WHAT WILL POOTIN DO NEXT?
Chini seen as correcting from excesses of past 2 decades
KAUN BAKI HAI? Steady, dependable Bharatiya haathi with Modi mahout!
+
BJP govt tax admin SEEN AS better than that of prev Congi admin, FOR FIIs
Cheers, Prakash Holla |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #9 Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:38 pm Post subject: Re: Is Bull Market Coming to an End??? |
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| amitagg wrote: | In my (humble) view , wrong ( unless u intend to buy back at lower levels ... Meaning subjectivity say at 8600 etc....)
At what levels would u look to buy or after what timeframe! |
Amit, I will start buying selectively only if nifty sustains above recent all time high and also above recent highest closes on daily/weekly/monthly (yet to happen) basis. It doesn't matter if I have to buy at higher levels. Having said this, I still have some shares bought on short term basis (less than a year) and a large number of shares on long term basis and I am selling the latter only as a fraction of my holding e.g. if I had 2000, I have sold 100 each at progressively higher levels on a few occasions recently and will continue if I get higher levels.
The only possible reason for further rise is that nifty hasn't gone much above 200 dma though the ratio is falling as given below. Ratios of NS high and 200 dma high on the day ATH was reached.
8/1/8 - 6357/4835=1.31
5/11/10 - 6339/5410=1.17
4/3/15 - 9119/8105=1.13
17/3/15 - 9218/8540=1.08
So, nifty may indeed fall now. On the other hand, DOW gave a ratio of 1.67 in Jan '08 when I sold most of my shares. I haven't tracked DOW lately but I feel all markets may fall.
If market do tank as I suspect, my worst case is 7400 earliest by end Oct. How much it will fall, if it does fall, we should know by end June. Too many run away gaps below which are unfilled. Keeping fingers crossed. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #10 Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:52 pm Post subject: |
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Wow! What an explanation
Thanks |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #11 Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:56 pm Post subject: |
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Wow! What an explanation
Thanks |
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chetan83
Brown Belt
Joined: 19 Feb 2010
Posts: 2036
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| Post: #12 Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:06 pm Post subject: |
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| anupsb wrote: | Thank you all for your kind replies!!.
Kindly note I am not into business of Predicting Tops or Bottoms. I am just trying to share my views which holds Importance to me.
Below are the charts for Sensex, Nifty, Banknfity,Nifty Junior. As one can clearly see that Nifty did manage to breach its All Time High( ATH) of 2015, but Sensex has failed to do so.
If one can see SensexEod, its a possible " Island Reversal" happening at very Important TOP. As of now that Gap which it left on 22/03/2017 is not fully closed.Same is the case for Banknifty.
Nifty Junior index which is main gauge of sentiment for mid caps, is showing a " Rising Wedge" which is developing on it's weekly charts since Aug 2015.Look at negative Rsi divergence and Nifty Junior hitting upper Trendline of that Wedge.
All above charts which I tried to analyze, are kind of out of sync. Like Sensex fails to Hit ATH followed by possible " Island Reversal". Nifty Junior since last 1.5 years making a " Rising Wedge" at top which indicates bearishness.
Hence I again stress my point, this time with help of charts that something is wrong with this " Nifty Breaking ATH" and its time to be Ultra Cautious!!!!. |
In short February Nifty closed above the monthly January high of Nifty in 2017.
So, as per last trend in such scenario Nifty will not close below 8700 this Year.......Take every opportunity to buy quality stocks in any downfall near this level.....
Truly speaking, I have also spotted out -WW in Nifty Weekly & monthly but I doubt that it will correct to such an extent.
Regards,
Chetan. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #13 Posted: Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:20 pm Post subject: |
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| chetan83 wrote: |
In short February Nifty closed above the monthly January high of Nifty in 2017.
So, as per last trend in such scenario Nifty will not close below 8700 this Year.......Take every opportunity to buy quality stocks in any downfall near this level..... |
Oh yeh, forgot about the jan closing rule  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #14 Posted: Sat Mar 25, 2017 10:07 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | chetan83 wrote: |
In short February Nifty closed above the monthly January high of Nifty in 2017.
So, as per last trend in such scenario Nifty will not close below 8700 this Year.......Take every opportunity to buy quality stocks in any downfall near this level..... |
Oh yeh, forgot about the jan closing rule |
check out last 10 years if nifty hasn't fallen even though it closed above jan high later. |
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Niftyman
White Belt
Joined: 22 Mar 2015
Posts: 340
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| Post: #15 Posted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:27 pm Post subject: |
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I wont sit with ease, (you must be knowing why, because of p word) but showing here because of other p (price) till it tank down to 7400
If unable to bring down below 9000/8900, I will jump and catch hold of, up moving price wave, and I am sure price will tank. You know why, because I am heavier than rhino/baby elephant, then how price will move up.
It has to tank, tank and tank.
Because I said it.
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