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Is Crude showing exhaustion?

 
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Author Is Crude showing exhaustion?
anupsb
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Joined: 04 May 2007
Posts: 21

Post: #1   PostPosted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 6:51 pm    Post subject: Is Crude showing exhaustion? Reply with quote

Hi,
Crude rally started from $86/bbl from where it went to make a high of $111/bbl and after that it retraced to 50% to $98. So taking $86 as point A high of $111 as point B and $98 as point C we try to calculate it's expansion levels.
If we calculate 1.618 expansion level of this swing level comes around $139.22/bbl(111.38-86.28=25.1 adding to retracement low of 98.62$ the level comes around 139.22) and recent high comes around $139.24/bbl.But in last few days crude is not able to break this high.
So the big question is whether crude is consolidating it's gains or showing a sign of exhaustion around this imp level?

Regards,
Anup bade

http://www.flickr.com/photos/25350797@N08/2596974809/sizes/o/
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mayurnsk
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Joined: 18 Jan 2007
Posts: 216
Location: Nasik, Maharashtra

Post: #2   PostPosted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi!
anupsb

I think crude will not break 132$ level. The minimum target is 148$. But if it breaks 132$ mark then it will test minimum 122$ level.

Regards

Mayuresh Jahagirdar
Nasik
Maharashtra
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anupsb
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Post: #3   PostPosted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Mayur,
First of all thank you for your view. I do agree that breach of $139 possible but I think $143 is immediate and important resistance.
If we go some back that is in year 2007 we can say after testing high of $78 crude retraced to $50 and assumed a new move where it went on to take out $78 and retraced to 38.2% of move from $50.31 to $78.7. So I assume this was a start of fresh uptrend.
So we take point A as low of $50.31 point B as High of $78.75 and point C as it retracement of $ 68.72, from here if we try to calculate 2.618 of this Swing the level comes around $143.7.
So going by this basic swing we may find stiif resistance around the level of $143, if mange to take out this high($139) and may expect a good correction.

Regards,
Anup Bade


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anupsb
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Joined: 04 May 2007
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Post: #4   PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 6:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Mayur,
Fantastic level for crude. High for crude was $147.22 and your target was $148. You must have made good money in shorting crude around your levels. Hats off to your levels. Will always look forward for some intresting levels.

Regards,
Anup Bade
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