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JSWSTEEL ....Price action |
chiragbvyas
White Belt
Joined: 18 Feb 2010
Posts: 469
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Post: #16  Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:11 pm Post subject: Re: hi |
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| chiragbvyas wrote: | | chiragbvyas wrote: | Dear Friends,
I would like to add Jindal steel as a case study, hope nobody will oppose as it is posted in JSWSteel thread ... as it has seen heavy down fall , but as per my T A it has tested only supports and not broken or closed below them... have a look ...
For JINDALSTEEL My views are ..
Just five figures ..
281.45 - 267.25 - 252/254 - 238.90 - 224.72
Just see bottom & close, just like an Edge !!!
You know from JSW post , how to play these numbers ...
This just for noticing purpose that the script was more than 15% down but my level of s l is saved. So i will go long with closing base s l .
Hope it will help who want to take advantage of downfall in this script. |
I am long in this counter @ 239 with closing base s l of 224. Anyone who is long ? |
Patience & Trust in one's T A always Pays.... Todays low 224.25 Now trading @ 248 high made 252.75 Just check with my levels !!! Enjoy !!! |
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chiragbvyas
White Belt
Joined: 18 Feb 2010
Posts: 469
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| Post: #17 Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:32 pm Post subject: Re: hi |
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| chiragbvyas wrote: | Dear Friends,
I am also Joining the discussion...
As per my T A ... The views are
- A close above 1439 will be on Break Out for long term Bull.
- Once it happens ..on retress up to 1365 one can add long with s l of 1292. if close below 1292 long trade is over and any rise up to 1439 can be shorted with 1439 closing base stop loss.
- A close below 1148 will be break down for long term Bear.
- Once it happens .. on retress up to 1220 can be shorted with closing base s l of 1294, if close above 1294 then short trade is over and any decline up to 1148 can be bought with closing base s l of 1148.
So all we have to do is remember just 5 figures ...
1439 - 1365 - 1292/1294 - 1220 - 1148
Let us see how it unfolds and how price behaviour gives honour to above levels. (All stated numbers are of NSE spot).
Hope this will be helpful to Swing Traders .... |
Came down to 1232 not broken 1220 and reversed to up move ... today hit 52 weeks high @ 1329.90 ..... |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #18 Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | One of The most interesting post since I joined icharts ( except some similar analysis method done by Sherbaaz)
Not looking at actual chart in software for precise comments but the picture given be you:
1. Irrespective of crowd behaviour which unfolds( explained later) ( Fii Dii hni retail all being part of this crowd)..... I agree with your " entry point" for shorts
2. Exit point - first tranche ( or even more that 50 percent ) can be base of big bull candle after point B ( eg 1190 odd giving 1.5 RR)... This is also " untested professional demand level" ( I cannot explain more than this in his forum) ( it has nothing to do with candlestick based trading)
This would save the risks if the following medium trend is "sideways"
Why I mentioned even more than 50 percent profit booking here ( though swing RR should be at least 3:1) is because a re entry short can be taken basis price action AND sector action AND nifty action then - this is called " top down approach"
3. Now coming to what is " possible scenarios for crowd behaviour"
- option a : harmonic in play and since prices gave retraced 80 percent and upmove beyond 1300 to target 1.27X is possible
Your trading strategy fits this scenarios as well except the following 2 comments ( one variation can be short entry below a fibo retrace of say 61.8 percent of last bull move from point A/ b etc. but this shall lower the RR as per my method above not so much in your exit points) ( two if your entry short taken, price may move below 1260 to trigger shorts " but not by much" and then move to 1300 or little above or 1.27 above subsequently triggering a loss exit)
- option b: as per al brooks, this action triggers two steps down from top of " swing failure top" ie where prices did not break 1300 earlier reached but came close. This means that one additional down move below the current swing low should unfold.
But My interpretation of this however over the years has been that in " bullish conditions" this " price pattern" leads to further bullishness seen in dr reddy and others ( doubt this time sincerely bullish trend shall continue since I am not very bullish on nifty and china pmi etc down bla bla)- this is divulgingg from pure chart price crowd analysis, nevertheless
4. Suppose or assume for time being that market was very bullish and stock was bullish due to discounting of favourable fundamentals etc... Suppose.... Then in that situation this price action would have " enabled the big guns or better word winning crowd whichever faction it may be " to get longs exit, get entry for shorters, and then move price up up... To leave both longs ( no opportunity profit) and shorts ( actual loss) aside.
This cannot be predicted .... Therefore to predict crowd behaviour we have to rely on TA also. U are basing a trading decision basis estimation of price movement which has " still NOT fully reflected of the crowd behaviour or what the crowd wants to do". This for me is a very Important point ( irrespective r of whether u are right or wrong because by toss of coin also we can be right 50 percent of the time )
5 shall come back with more thoughts |
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