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Learning the Elliott Waves is difficult but not impossible |
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #16 Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2014 7:19 pm Post subject: |
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amitagg wrote: | ...... Little knowledge is dangerous ..... |
IMHO, pursuit of knowledge is supreme and in that pursuit, knowledge is always little in the beginning but that doesn't mean one should just keep storing more and more. As it is collected, it also has to be tried and tested, as you did.
We did it unknowingly as infants, as a matter of evolution, but now we have to put in efforts. days of spoon feeding/upbringing are gone.
One word of caution though from personal experience - wisdom often comes after you have no money left.
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Ruchirgupta2000 White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014 Posts: 297
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Post: #17 Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks to you all for a sincere encouragement.
Amit- Yes Constance Brown is the person.
Vinay- If we all unite atleast we can start defeating the FII list starting from bottom and that does seem possible looking at so many funds underperform the index.
Opportunist- Thumsup to you bhai, I even kept ignoring it few years ago because I thought it was difficult.
Ravee- If we have a goal in our mind we can achieve it.. we may not even get toghter to do that but.... its possible.
Guys I am uploading just a very initial stage model.
May be many of you could understand it if have understanding of the knowlege of a bit excel to evalaute formulaes and retrace them.
So far Model has the prices of Nifty since year 1995. but I have started evaluating event since 2000 till 2009.
so far my aim is to predict the Time Rythem Zone (TRZ) as said by Robert Miner. I have started getting the durations of actual time zone when the high or low is expected. on the long terms which is still as long as 2 -3 months for the bigg market moves, 4-10 days for the 2-3 month move.
so far only tested it for lows (bear trends).
TD= No. of Trading days
CD= Calender days
L-L- TD= Low to Low Trading days.
H-L- CD= High Low Calender days
rest you wil understand.
I will further try to decrease it give 2-3 days time target
short coming is sometimes the weekday holiday spoils the predictions. and models predictions becomes deviated in the terms like diwali, new year when there are much more holidays.
Dont think that it will not help in day trading because I am developing a second model that gets price and updated from googel.
challenge here is the time data is coming in codes and I am fighting to integrate that with longer daily data so that even low can be predicted a few minutes length with presicion. uploading both the models.
let us give it a try coz the Axe that is itself made of wood when hammerred with a sharp edge on tree and the contiusly hammerred at the same spot of the tree it makes the tree fall.
unable to upload... but I will make it reach to you all any how.
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Ruchirgupta2000 White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014 Posts: 297
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Post: #18 Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:15 pm Post subject: |
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Hi all, in last few days I studied Patrick Mekula's Defeinitive guide to forcasting square of nine as suggested by Raja in his thread. I read it all however not able to apply it practically and hence I doubtful till I dont use them. meanwhile I got an excel on net on which I could have tested Mekula's examples but I found the following challenges:
1. Nifty is in 8000 range and square of nine is till near 700 or 800, it requires huge time to make a square of nine with figures till 8000 planted on it.
2. I got doubful on square of nine when I studied few chapters of Gann's Master stock market course as Gann's book has it in different format.
a. Gann has used it in columns 1-9 in first column, 10-18 in second and so on.
b. Mekula plot 1 in the middle and then 2-3-4-5 etc in the clock wise direction and claims that Gann has used clockwise most of the time.
3. I could have done the practical of Mekula's Book on the found out excel sheet but since, I am testing the Time as per Miner's book and all the testing so far I have done on Nifty and unable to apply Mekula's methods on nifty coz of limitations on square of nine.
on the other side I have begun with all the confidence to start reading the Gleen Nelly's Mastering Elliott wave but got stuck to the place where he starts retracment rules (chapter 3) and says that this requires your orginal charts to practice. First I dont know to make the charts of high- low average points he has suggested. Second is it possible that I use it on the charting software (candlesticks)?
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Ruchirgupta2000 White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014 Posts: 297
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Post: #19 Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 11:52 am Post subject: Nifty 15Mint EW as per DT |
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if minor wave 4 high broken then we can conclude that wave 3 or C of major degree if over.
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Ruchirgupta2000 White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014 Posts: 297
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Post: #20 Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:27 pm Post subject: Re: Nifty 15Mint EW as per DT |
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Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | if minor wave 4 high broken then we can conclude that wave 3 or C of major degree if over. |
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Ruchirgupta2000 White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014 Posts: 297
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Post: #21 Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:42 pm Post subject: Re: Nifty 15Mint EW as per DT |
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Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | if minor wave 4 high broken then we can conclude that wave 3 or C of major degree if over. |
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Nifty may stop at 7954 as it is 38.2% of 1-3 wave of major degree (15mints)
if not stops here then 7912 61.8% of 1-3 wave and also a important spot on a cyclic base (this is from a Book I recently read will share its link today)
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Ruchirgupta2000 White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014 Posts: 297
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Post: #22 Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:44 pm Post subject: Re: Nifty 15Mint EW as per DT |
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Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | if minor wave 4 high broken then we can conclude that wave 3 or C of major degree if over. |
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Nifty may stop at 7954 as it is 38.2% of 1-3 wave of major degree (15mints)
if not stops here then 7912 61.8% of 1-3 wave and also a important spot on a cyclic base (this is from a Book I recently read will share its link today) |
all these levels will get active only if 7980 recent low is broken (probability is high, reason I will tell sm1 asks)
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Ruchirgupta2000 White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014 Posts: 297
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Post: #23 Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 1:22 pm Post subject: Re: Nifty 15Mint EW as per DT |
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Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | if minor wave 4 high broken then we can conclude that wave 3 or C of major degree if over. |
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Nifty may stop at 7954 as it is 38.2% of 1-3 wave of major degree (15mints)
if not stops here then 7912 61.8% of 1-3 wave and also a important spot on a cyclic base (this is from a Book I recently read will share its link today) |
all these levels will get active only if 7980 recent low is broken (probability is high, reason I will tell sm1 asks) |
Niether wave 4 of smaller degree is getting broker nor the low of 7980. which indicates that this is a complex correction.
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #24 Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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i think markings not correct
wave 3 cannot be the shortest even if minor wave.....
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Ruchirgupta2000 White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014 Posts: 297
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Post: #25 Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 1:41 pm Post subject: |
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amitagg wrote: | i think markings not correct
wave 3 cannot be the shortest even if minor wave..... |
Amit just now measured it . 3 and 5 are of same length.
I marked it wave 3 when wave 5 also completed and the move seemed impulsive rather corrective.
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Ruchirgupta2000 White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014 Posts: 297
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Post: #26 Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:15 pm Post subject: Re: Nifty 15Mint EW as per DT |
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Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | if minor wave 4 high broken then we can conclude that wave 3 or C of major degree if over. |
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Nifty may stop at 7954 as it is 38.2% of 1-3 wave of major degree (15mints)
if not stops here then 7912 61.8% of 1-3 wave and also a important spot on a cyclic base (this is from a Book I recently read will share its link today) |
all these levels will get active only if 7980 recent low is broken (probability is high, reason I will tell sm1 asks) |
Niether wave 4 of smaller degree is getting broker nor the low of 7980. which indicates that this is a complex correction. |
7954 done
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #27 Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:20 pm Post subject: |
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excellant first interpretation!!!!
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Ruchirgupta2000 White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014 Posts: 297
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Post: #28 Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:23 pm Post subject: New Labelin in nifty |
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New Labelin in nifty
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #29 Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:26 pm Post subject: |
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wave 4 is monowave.....not ABC pattern????
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Ruchirgupta2000 White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014 Posts: 297
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Post: #30 Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:27 pm Post subject: Re: New Labelin in nifty |
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Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | New Labelin in nifty |
seems 7912-14 target will be hit coz 7954 was broken by wave 3 minor. and wave 5 still remains.
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