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magic of macd |
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Post: #16  Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:24 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | Dear ST, with due respects, I am surprised at your views, irrespective who they are addressed to or the present context. Isn't it obvious that, while changes in price decide technicals, price itself changes only due to news and events, in immediate/short/long term, depending upon the repurcussions of these event/news and the psychological and technical interpretations by traders and investors of the events?
Even the books on trading refer to SA/FA/TA as three vital and only legs of a three-legged stool, each important in its own way and at its appropriate time. Isn't your view then like wearing blinkers? I am asking this not to chide you but in the interest of many who are trying to learn and should have a holistic approach.
For me though "A" is also important to an extent! 
I trust you will take my comments in proper prespective. |
I am not sure why you are surprised at my views, isn't it obvious that I am extremely passionate about technical analysis? So passionate that I started a website for it. I have made this clear many times before that one just needs basic technical tools to trade intraday or position trade the intermediate term or invest for the long-term. Nothing else is required, especially not the junk funda/eco data that is fed to us which we take to be valid. Price technicals give you a far more true picture that one can rely on. For me the analysis begins & ends with price. Period.
The only thing important about news/events is knowing that it may affect price...thats it. And even this is important only for short-term trading, for intermediate to long-term news/events are useless.
All this said...go ahead and use what you prefer and what works for you. I have settled down on price technicals as it works for me consistently.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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Vinodz
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| Post: #17 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:25 am Post subject: SA ? |
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vinay you mention SA/FA/TA
what is SA
thanks |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #18 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:38 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | I have relied all the time on technicals since I have started trading without looking at any funda/eco numbers and thrived well. Funda/eco numbers are good for entertainment though....
It’s good to hear that you thrived well in trading solely relying on technicals.
May I ask you few questions ST
• Will Fundamental analysis blunt Technical analysis?
• In final analysis TA is solely based on price action .Price action is surely not based on TA.Then what causes price movement? Is it not Fundamentals?
• If the answer is yes why should we ignore such a crucial factor which decides price action?
I feel understanding fundamentals enhance market player’s success rate rather than using it for mere entertainment. Warren buffet who is considered as a legend investor relies solely on fundamentals.
I don’t see any conflict between FA and TA whereas FA is foundation TA can be considered as super structure. They complement each other. |
I don't care what causes price action or what moves price. I don't want to know what moves price. I just want to know where the price is moving - up or down or sideways - in my trading/investing timeframe. Nothing else is important or required.
FA is useful if you have the resources and trading timeframe of Warren Buffet. How many of us have that? Without that the FA data you think you have is either total junk or too late to be useful. Warren Buffent is not looking at the FA data that you & I look at. Until we do the sort of analysis that he does any FA analysis you do is probably not that useful or is too late to capitalise on. I had wasted lot of my time initially in FA until my TA mentor knocked sense into me. I am will always be thankful to him for that.
I will still say - yes - you can use certain stuff in FA like already declared earnings to see how profitable a company is and what sort of growth the company has shown in recent times. This could be useful if one is investing for the long term. But this is surely not necessary to invest for long term. You will have all this information about the company reflected in the price much before the company announces its earnings.
As I said below, I am not saying use only TA. I am just saying this is what I do. Do what you want to do if it works for you. The point I was making to Ajay is that the GDP numbers that we got yesterday did not change anything so as to suddenly reverse opinion like he was thinking. Those numbers may or may not be meaningless, it does not matter. What did price do around that time? That is the right question to ask for 99.9% of the traders because that is what is going to change their account value, not the GDP numbers.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #19 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:46 am Post subject: |
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oh! forgot to mention this :
FA is extremely useful for one thing - you want to be a financial research analyst. That can be a good job, I am not sure. Let others pay you to analyse companies, economy etc  . But if it is your money on the line then I urge you to wake up, stop wasting time and switch to TA and subscribe to iCharts!!!! 
Guys!!! why do you expect me to advertise FA when my site breathes TA?
In any case, what I posted below is what I sincerely believe. Give it or take it, it is my sincere opinion.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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sherbaaz
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| Post: #20 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:51 am Post subject: |
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. But if it is your money on the line then I urge you to wake up, stop wasting time and switch to TA and subscribe to iCharts!!!!
Yeh kehi PT to nahi hai
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vinay28
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| Post: #21 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:59 am Post subject: |
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Dear ST, as long you grant that at least some news/events do affect prices, it is fine with me. I apreciate your views that one should do what suits one the best. I also accept your comment that most news is too late for most of us. The purpose of my comment is only to highlight the issue on a wider canvass.
A well honed and experienced trader (intraday or positional) always keeps a SL/TSL and it mostly serves him well. Still, many a great traders have lost a lot (if not everything) in one single day. And there are obvious reasons for it when one goes into postmortem. Just as an example for all readers, let me cite two possibilities. What when a major event suddenly occurs (a) during market hours and (b) after market hours?
e.g., god forbid, if PM or FM gets a heart attack, market will start sliding and someone not aware of the development will see his SL triggered, which he could have saved if he had heard the news in time. Another factual example is the japanese tsunami and nuclear disaster. In view of whatever little knowledge I have on earthquakes or tsunamis or nuclear plants, I was lucky to decide to sell immediately when I heard news on TV, which is always behind me.
But imagine an attack on Iran ocurring after market hours. If one is well aware of happenings in the world then one could have read/heard something earlier in the day and could notice a nervous market. He can then sell depending on his gut feeling (SA) instead of having to see the market opening at the lower circuit.
Thank you ST for a lively and passionate discussion, which I believe was fruitful. |
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rk_a2003
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| Post: #22 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 12:12 pm Post subject: |
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You are right in your own way ST  |
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ajayhkaul
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| Post: #23 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:04 pm Post subject: |
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Sorry to disappoint you padkondu , but there is NO magic in any of the technical indicators and tools. There is no precision also .
They are exactly - INDICATORS- and help you to visualize probable scenarios. However, the next event or catalyst can change everything. For example the GDP news today would have made all technicians revise their views that were formed yeaterday
Almost all indicators are lagging indicators as you are aware.
I am breaking my retirement re this discussion since vinay has granted extension ! 
I see ST in action here! I am happy to draw him out . Last time he shared his sentiment indicator. So lets see what we get now !
At least ST has no issues with 'magic' or 'precision' tools.
They are just INDICATORS to help take decisions. For a beginner (as in this case I presumed) it is important to know that.
However ST mentions that GDP numbers made no difference to the techies
but I think he means with respect to his own time frame. Shorter term/day traders using technicals would have to change their views in a hurry ie from bullish to bearish for the day or two. Since Price is everything, it did wildly fluctuate and tank . The market is still digesting the (fundamental) news.
To say that GDP numbers did not impact day/short term traders' technicals would not be accurate. It has definitely put the brakes on the pullback and increased the waiting period for a trend trader or swing trader. And time is money also.
Also , fundamentals DRIVE the technicals and not the other way round. This cannot be refuted.
ST is right when he says that it is difficult for most people to keep track of fundamentals.
I would say the same applies to TA for beginners as it would take them quite sometime before they get to STs level .
Average time to get to competent level is 10,000hrs of 'flying' time ! provided one doesn't run out of capital by then.
Hence message for padkondu, who has started his journey with MACD , --- its not MAGIC .
There are no young geniuses in this business, TA or FA !
Both require application, patience and discipline - so take what works for you.
Last edited by ajayhkaul on Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:17 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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rrk2006hyd
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| Post: #24 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:16 pm Post subject: eat BINGO..NO CONFUSION GREAT COMBINATION |
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Hello..guys...cooll....ALL TAs and FAs..we need BINGO..for this topic...no confusion..great combination..
[/b]
Instead of fighting..give some useful..tips..
we will be happy.. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #25 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:22 pm Post subject: |
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| this is no fight rrk, just a healthy discussion.........one might say "vocational guidance". |
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ajayhkaul
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| Post: #26 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:23 pm Post subject: |
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ajayhkaul
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| Post: #27 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | this is no fight rrk, just a healthy discussion.........one might say "vocational guidance". |
well said Dr Vinay |
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rrk2006hyd
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| Post: #28 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:25 pm Post subject: |
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| AJAYHKAUL wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | this is no fight rrk, just a healthy discussion.........one might say "vocational guidance". |
well said Dr Vinay |
i dont think so  ...whatever TA or FA ..point is how much ur putting some penny's in ur pocket ..at the end of day..is TRUE... |
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singh.ravee
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| Post: #29 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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padkondu
hello, my limited experience with macd suggests that macd works well with congestion or rangebound markets.
I learned one method from mayur sir on how to use macd in sb long way back.
thanks and regards
ravee |
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ajayhkaul
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Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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| Post: #30 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:12 pm Post subject: |
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| rrk2006hyd wrote: | | AJAYHKAUL wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | this is no fight rrk, just a healthy discussion.........one might say "vocational guidance". |
well said Dr Vinay |
i dont think so ...whatever TA or FA ..point is how much ur putting some penny's in ur pocket ..at the end of day..is TRUE... |
Trading is a journey rrk2006hyd .... you win some , you lose some and if you are net positive , you are a good trader/investor. There is no tipping service in any of the threads. They are technical and/or fundamental views of the author and it is left to the reader to take a call.
Tips are for waiters -- as the professionals say( no offense meant here ) . You will not see ST provide 'tips' , but he has set up this site and shared his senti indicator so people can get valuable insights from charts and various threads. |
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