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rajmohanmbamhr
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Joined: 13 Oct 2011
Posts: 444
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Post: #481  Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:59 pm Post subject: TATA STEEL |
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| pkveenu wrote: | hello rajmohanmbamhr
Is it worthful to have Tata Motors and Tata Steel at these prices around 300.00 and 220.00 respectively for investment purposes.
Please advise, if possible.
Regards |
The stock price of Tata Steel is depends upon the below factors.
Steel Price in Global Market(Demand and supply):
For last 2 to 3 Decades china consumed 25-40 percent of the world steel production mainly for the infrastructure development which to the extent balanced the demand and supply. However the infrastructure in china now in saturation stage which caused the excess supply of steel in the world market. So the steel prices are keep on falling to new lows which ultimately affecting the profitability of the steel companies. So the excess supply of the steel should be consumed by some one else for the prices to recover.
So who will consume the excess supply of the steel.? For this the china should become the consumer economy so that the excess steel will be consumed by the industries like car, Bike producers or by the manufactures of Consumer Durable companies and the next possible option for increasing the consumption is India should spend more money on infrastructure development like what china had done for past 3 decades. If the second one happened the Indian companies like TATA steel can benefit at large which will help the prices to appreciate.
Government Policies:
The Government policies like Anti dumping duties play vital role in the price of the steel in India. Chinese companies are dumping the excess steel in India at the price which is much lower than the cost of production in India. So to save the steel companies The Indian government is levying Anti dumping duties on steel import now. But in future they might reduce/remove the Duty to keep the price of the steel in low levels which is vital for the Infrastructure development in India. So what required is the global demand(Especially China ) should increase coupled with Indian Demand so that the Indian steel companies can earn more which will reflect in Stock prices.
More pain?:
But near future I don’t see any increase of steel prices. Even if its increase the Government will relax Anti dumping Duty(Assumption) which will keep the price of the steel lower in India. And also many companies postponed their expansion plans due to lower demand and price in Global Markets. So if the price started to increase they will start production(Like shale Oil companies) and which will reduce the possibility of the Greater spike of steel price. And the Indian companies are having lager amount of debt in their books with higher interest so the turn around will take more time than what we are thinking.
Final Call:
And I don’t thing the stock price of the steel companies will appreciate much in the near term for the above reasons and also the pure commodity companies were not big wealth creators in the history. But still I will buy the Tata steel for the below reasons.
1. Company management
2. One of the largest steel producer in the world.(Any re bound in the commodity cycle will help the company)
3. Superior Technology and quicker adoption to the technology.
4. The company sales primarily dependent on India which is expected to grow at very good pace for at least 1 or 2 decades.
5. The price of the share is near multi year low.(Although I don’t think it is bottom)
6. Historically the commodity prices are cyclical in nature and all we know is history will always repeat in stock market.
Just start to accumulate around this level (30 to 40 percent) and buy another round (20 to 30 percent) once prices declines 15- 20 percent and final round (20 -30 percent) once its declines further 10 – 20 percent and forget the shares for at least decade. Why we are accumulating the shares step by step is no one can exactly predict the commodity cycle or stock prices and no one can predict the bottom/Top of the commodity cycle. And don’t invest more than 5 percent of the portfolio in this stock.
Sorry for the late reply. And don’t hesitate to ask queries, if you have.
Thanks and Regards
Rajmohan V |
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ninjadude
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Joined: 29 Jan 2013
Posts: 128
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| Post: #482 Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2015 10:05 am Post subject: |
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Heres wishing you a very happy Diwali with peace and prosperity to my fellow traders here,
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rajmohanmbamhr
White Belt
Joined: 13 Oct 2011
Posts: 444
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| Post: #483 Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:33 pm Post subject: BUY ITC |
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Call : Buy
Strategy : Based on the PE Multiples
ITC is a buy call now based on the Past records of the PE Multiples. At current price of 320 the stock is trading at the P/E multiples of 26.7 which is almost near to lowest PE multiples of past 3 years. And in near term there is no expectation of Much(Even after implementation of GST the downside for EPS is limited) EPS reduction.
EXIT :
Exit all the positions around 32 to 34 PE(With current valuation the target is 390) which was the last 3 years average. |
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rajmohanmbamhr
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Joined: 13 Oct 2011
Posts: 444
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| Post: #484 Posted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:17 am Post subject: Re: Buy Voltas upto 260 SL Monthly closing below 250 CMP 270 |
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| rajmohanmbamhr wrote: | | Buy Voltas upto 260 SL Monthly closing below 250 CMP 270 Target 1 320 TGT 2 380 |
Target 1 achieved...Closing price 325 almost 20 percent up from Buying price(Same time Nifty gave 3 percent negative returns on the same period)....Book 50 percent profit and let the remaining to run towards the 2nd target... |
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rajmohanmbamhr
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Joined: 13 Oct 2011
Posts: 444
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| Post: #485 Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:39 pm Post subject: Re: Buy Voltas upto 260 SL Monthly closing below 250 CMP 270 |
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| rajmohanmbamhr wrote: | | rajmohanmbamhr wrote: | | Buy Voltas upto 260 SL Monthly closing below 250 CMP 270 Target 1 320 TGT 2 380 |
Target 1 achieved...Closing price 325 almost 20 percent up from Buying price(Same time Nifty gave 3 percent negative returns on the same period)....Book 50 percent profit and let the remaining to run towards the 2nd target... |
SL Triggered. |
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rajmohanmbamhr
White Belt
Joined: 13 Oct 2011
Posts: 444
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| Post: #486 Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:11 pm Post subject: Re: Banking Sector Long Term |
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Hi All,
Now i have changed my stance...The stock like IOB are trading less than 10% of when compared to their all time high...And also i heard they have upgraded their software which will increase their production efficiency and also they are concentrating and adopting the new technologies like mobile fund transfer..So with less employees they can do more business like Private banks...and they are now looking for less ticket size loans instead of lending to large corporates...Seems they have learned a lot..but one warning is STILL THEY HAVE TO IMPROVE A LOT IN CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT...
Trade:
So i have reversed my stance(Though there are lot of reason i have mentioned only few things here).I bought IOB Bank at 26(its value in my portfolio is less than 5%)...Its purely on speculation and i am believing that the bank will not go for bankrupt in future.(Even if its go for bankrupt i will not worry since the money i put in this stock will not change my life style)BUT IF YOU DO NOT HAVE SURPLUS MONEY PLEASE DONT BUY THIS STOCK SINCE I AM SPECULATING BASED ON MY FEW ASSUMPTIONS.
EXIT:
I dont believe i can exit the stock in medium term and it might take 10 to 15 years to get exit and i am expecting 4 times of return on my capital(So target around 100rs)...
| rajmohanmbamhr wrote: | | rajmohanmbamhr wrote: | Banking Sector Long Term:
Now most of the PSU Banks are trading at-least 50% lower than their peak.
so its value buying these stocks now. My personal opinion is Big NO.
The 2 Major reasons for the NO.
1. NPA Bubble
2. New banking licence
Come to NPA. The banks are actually hiding their NPA's by collecting a small portion of the debt due and making that entire loan to be out of NPA. But for how-long they can do like this. The more the time they hide their NPA's the more the bubble will become larger. Then if all banks go to government for rescue already high deficit government cant do any-thigh. The burst of this NPA bubble is not going to happen very soon. The time period will take to burst of the bubble is entirely depends upon the growth of the economy. If its slowdown further soon it will happen(here soon means within 2 -3 years).
The new banking licence will create another trouble to these PSU banks.
RBI is going to give licence to big corporates. So the sharing of the business as well as profit. So the high quality credit sharing will leads to further big dip in profits in short and long term.
The NPA , New banking licence , Inefficient higher management and low quality customer relationship leads to long term negative growth to this PSU banks.
And what about the price. My opinion is we can get these stocks at-least 50% lower than CMP.
And the private sector banks will obviously outperform the Public Sector
banks in Long term. so if want to invest for long term invest in Private Sector bank and don't touch the Public Sector banks .
Thanks
Rajmohan |
This was written some two years back...Now even though the PSU Banks stocks are not available 50 percent cheaper but still they are trading at 2013 prices...But the Private bank stocks are appreciated 50- 100% in last 2 years...
I am on the same view...In long team(I mean for decades)these PSU banks are wealth destroyers..Do not buy it for long term even if you think it is available in attractive valuation..
Thanks
Rajmohan |
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AMBY
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Joined: 05 Sep 2014
Posts: 503
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| Post: #487 Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Thanks for your fresh view. |
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rajmohanmbamhr
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Joined: 13 Oct 2011
Posts: 444
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| Post: #488 Posted: Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:13 pm Post subject: airtel |
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Most awaited Jio is under testing phase...I bought the sim and used it...The internet speed is good...Now we got one more big player in highly changing and competitive Telecom industry...Jio will acquire high end customer from other operators...
SELL Bharathi airtel Target 300 in 6 months and 260 in 1 to 2 years
Buy Reliance Industries Target 1500 in 1 to 2 years
Thanks
Rajmohan V |
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AMBY
Yellow Belt
Joined: 05 Sep 2014
Posts: 503
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| Post: #489 Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:58 am Post subject: |
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| Thanks, |
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ragarwal
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Joined: 16 Nov 2008
Posts: 582
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| Post: #490 Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2016 10:06 am Post subject: |
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raja sir,plz give few investment ideas for 2 yrs time frame.
thnx |
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rajmohanmbamhr
White Belt
Joined: 13 Oct 2011
Posts: 444
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| Post: #491 Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:27 am Post subject: Re: BUY ITC |
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Target Achieved...(Consider 1:2 Bonus)..
Still you can hold this stock for long term investment...it wont become 10 bagger or 20 bageer in 5 to 10 years..but i feel it always beat index and other fixed income returns in long term.
| rajmohanmbamhr wrote: | Call : Buy
Strategy : Based on the PE Multiples
ITC is a buy call now based on the Past records of the PE Multiples. At current price of 320 the stock is trading at the P/E multiples of 26.7 which is almost near to lowest PE multiples of past 3 years. And in near term there is no expectation of Much(Even after implementation of GST the downside for EPS is limited) EPS reduction.
EXIT :
Exit all the positions around 32 to 34 PE(With current valuation the target is 390) which was the last 3 years average. |
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rajmohanmbamhr
White Belt
Joined: 13 Oct 2011
Posts: 444
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| Post: #492 Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:46 am Post subject: Buy Thyrocare |
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Hi ragarwal,
Its difficult to predict the winner for 1 to 3 years time frame...Always try to identify the good product in the market then buy the company producing that product..wait for 10 to 20 years...once you buy the stock dont listen to stock prices just listen to the product that company produces. Listen to the competition and substitutes to that product...In 10 to 20 years it will give you 10 to 100 times returns...
As of now you can buy thyrocare(not more than 5% of your portfolio)...Though its trading significantly higher than ipo price still you can buy this stock. The reasons are below.
1.Product is unique and simple
2.Low cost structure(So the competitors stay away from industry)
3.Growing awareness about preventive care diagnosis
4. Excellent management.(The founder is phd holder and his son also well educated to run the business in the future)
and lot more
So do your research also and buy for 10 to 20 years time frame.
And also please let me know if you come across any good products and we will discuss the product here and we will buy the stock together for long time frame.Happy investing.
Thanks
Rajmohan V |
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rajmohanmbamhr
White Belt
Joined: 13 Oct 2011
Posts: 444
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| Post: #493 Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:02 pm Post subject: Re: airtel |
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| rajmohanmbamhr wrote: | Most awaited Jio is under testing phase...I bought the sim and used it...The internet speed is good...Now we got one more big player in highly changing and competitive Telecom industry...Jio will acquire high end customer from other operators...
SELL Bharathi airtel Target 300 in 6 months and 260 in 1 to 2 years
Buy Reliance Industries Target 1500 in 1 to 2 years
Thanks
Rajmohan V |
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rajmohanmbamhr
White Belt
Joined: 13 Oct 2011
Posts: 444
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| Post: #494 Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:08 pm Post subject: Re: airtel |
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| rajmohanmbamhr wrote: | | rajmohanmbamhr wrote: | Most awaited Jio is under testing phase...I bought the sim and used it...The internet speed is good...Now we got one more big player in highly changing and competitive Telecom industry...Jio will acquire high end customer from other operators...
SELL Bharathi airtel Target 300 in 6 months and 260 in 1 to 2 years
Buy Reliance Industries Target 1500 in 1 to 2 years
Thanks
Rajmohan V |
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Much ahead of time...Made a low of 302... |
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acharyams
Yellow Belt
Joined: 04 Jul 2010
Posts: 552
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| Post: #495 Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 7:07 am Post subject: Re: Buy Thyrocare |
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Dear Raj,
If allocation is to be 5% of investible fund, one needs 20 STOCKS in one's kitty. If THYROCARE is one for long term, will you please suggest few more. |
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