iCharts Discussions

[rameshraja]

COMPASS FOR 09.09.2008


Yesterday, as expected market gap opened due to NSG waiver and our market was well supported by world markets of crazy upmove dueto bailout of two American financials Fannie and Freddie.

Today Nifty Futures should close negative and bears will try hard to erase the entire gains of yesterday in the next few days but bulls are equally smarter to have put heavy weight stocks of Index like ONGC / Banking stocks in bull mode. Its going to be a tough week for both bulls and bears.

Looking at market from technicals........... Nifty futures should take support around 4445 and Resist around 4530. The real threat for Nifty futures will emerge if it breaks 4425 decisively. In the event of breaking 4425, then market could erase all the gains it made yesterday, and fall to last Friday's closing or may even breach Friday's Low.

Nifty Futures Range for 09.09.2008 : 4445 - 4530

In Individual Stocks, Reliance continue to underperform which is offset by ONGC's outperformance and that plays vital role in Index Management.

Reliance Industries Limited Range : 2172 - 2050

Reliance capital: 1380 - 1285

State Bank of India: 1640 - 1550.

Best Wishes


C T RAMESH RAJA

[cypandya]

Thnx CTR Sir,

we are enjoying the bear markets..
u told on 23rd Jan 08 in shout box..


Rgrds,
Bhaumik Pandya

[eagleseyes]

thanks once again

[hdobhal]

Thanks RR Sir,

Looks like your range for today is holding quite nicely.

Harish

[Buzz22]

gr8 call sir

[Buzz22]

ORGINFO Call @ 26 today was @ 43 gr8 call sir

[rameshraja]

Dear Buzz

Thank you. Did you buy ? Stock is likely to moveup and fundamentally its a good stock.

Read the following about the stock

ORG Informatics Limited:

CMP: Rs. 30.00

Target: 35, 58 & 102

52 Weeks High: Rs. 125

Book Value / Share: Rs. 60.84

Duration: 2 Weeks, 3 Months & 1 Year

Recommendation: VERY STRONG BUY

Introduction

ORG is engaged in the business of Systems Integration, Service, and
Telecom. It focuses on IT & Telecom convergence segment. ORG provides
complete integrated solutions in fields of enterprise management,
value added services, billing & OSS, VSAT & bandwidth solutions,
wireless solutions, networking and infrastructure services.

Company Background

ORG group was established in 1960 by Dr Vikram Sarabhai (founder of
IIM-A and ISRO) to facilitate scientific approach for data collection
and information analysis to optimize business operations. Global Asia
Partners LP, US investment fund, infused equity funds into ORG and
Ajoy Khanderia, General Partner of the fund became the CEO. GAP is not
just equity owner of the company; it has also infused Rs47.8mn through
loan that is 63% of total loan amount as on Mar-05.

Business MIX

ORG is engaged in the business of Systems Integration, Service, and
Telecom. It focuses on IT & Telecom convergence segment. ORG provides
complete integrated solutions in fields of enterprise management,
value added services, billing & OSS, VSAT & bandwidth solutions,
wireless solutions, networking and infrastructure services.

Technically Speaking

ORG INFORMATICS looks good at daily charts, traded above it 50 Day
DMA 25.70 and 50 Day EMA of 27.75. ORG INFORMATICS Resist at 31-32
level as we seen in graph that upper trend line act as a Resistance
level that is 31-32.

RESISTANCE: ORG INFORMATICS stiff Resistance comes at 31-32 level if
scrip maintain this level than it will go for target 35-42-50 level
soon.

SUPPORT: Support comes for ORG at 25 i.e. 50 Day DMA level and if
scrip slip below this than 23-18 are the support zone for ORG
INFORMATICS.

Few Important Points

It has book value at Rs 60 and overseas Belgium company which they
acquired would post sales of 100 crore +, also they have order worth
Rs 300 crore on their hand. Current year consolidates sales would be
Rs 400 crore and net profit at Rs 20-25 crore.

[sivanamakkal]

RR sir,
yesterday i tried buying as per your cam levels.i bought suzlon 500 shares at 234.50 and got hit my trailing stop at 239.80.so net 5rs per share.unitech bought 500 shares at 161.5 sold at the close for 163.4.net 2 rs.and i tried hdil 100 shares for 315.5 and booked loss at the end at 311.8.net loss 4 rs per share.i bought hdil without watching much and jumped in after just crossing of S3 level.
sir i know these levels are for future trading.i watch future rates and traded in cash market because i am in traial with cam levels.i have some doubts sir.please clarify me sir.

1)for buying should i buy above S3 level after retracing from S4 or no need to cross S4.that is just buying above S3 level.(i know wide range counters only)

2)after buying above S3 level what is the stoploss level.is it S4 or low of the day.

3)what is the significance of other levels that is S5-S2-S1-R1-R2-R5.is there any importance for those levels.

4)this is very important qustion.dont mistake me sir.how did you calculate these cam levels?is there any calculater or software or formula to arrive these levls myself?

i daily select 10 conters with good volume.take notes by eod charts.looking at weekly bar and daily bar and 5 min patterns i trade intraday.your cam levels are very very useful.thats why i am asking these qustions.please dont mistake me sir.once again thank you sir.

[rameshraja]

COMPASS FOR 10.09.2008

TODAY ITS A MAKE OR BRAKE DAY

US market has wipedout the entire gains of the day of bailout of Fannie and Freddie. Now its quite important for us, if we will sustain the gains that was made due to NSG waiver embargo.

Nifty is crucially placed today and a few leading Index stocks have been put into buy mode yesterday like Reliance / Airtel. On the other hand, as per conventional technicals BHEL / Reliance capital and Tata motors have formed classical Island Reversal in the chart.

Nifty Futures Range for the day : 4570 - 4460

Pivot for the Nifty Futures : 4498

There are two likely scenarios:

First scenario:

If NF crosses 4579, then it could retrace to 4530 and SL will be 4505 and TGT could be 4665 - 4710

Second scenario:

If NF trades below 4425 consistently, then it could bounce to 4468 and SL would be Pivot level of 4498 and TGT on downside will be 4362 - 4300.

Since most of the front line stocks are in buy mode and as long as Reliance doesn't break yesterday's low of 2100, odds are in favour of strong upmove.

In individual stocks, I would like to go for a few mid cap stock ideas where fundamentals are strong enough for investment for a return of 10 to 15% in short term.

I prefer buying the following:

1. Aarti Industries around 46 which isin Trade to trade.

2. ViviMed Lab at 72

3. Surya Pharma at 96

4. RPG Life science at 31

5. AMD IND at 20

6. Alps Ind at 25.55

7. Gayatri Projects which is listed in BSE.


Best Wishes


C T RAMESH RAJA

[rameshraja]

COMPASS FOR 11.09.2008

Yesterday NF was not even able to cross the Pivot level of 4498 and it broke the main support of 4425.


Nifty Futures range for 11.09.2008 : 4460 - 4365

Pivot for the day : 4429


Note: Fibonacci Time Analysis point towards a good upmove either on 12.09.2008 or 15.09.2008. This analysis though not perfect at all times (has a stike rate of around 60%), lets be careful in carrying any overnight shorts.

Best Wishes


C T RAMESH RAJA

[rameshraja]

COMPASS FOR 12.09.2008

During the beginning of this week, NS has crossed weekly high and yesterday broke the Low of weekly bar and rising trendline in EOD. Infact in RT the rising channel was broken on Wednesday itself. Oflate, market gaps open in a big way either on upside or on lower side, making traders nightmarish if they have any overnight positions and force them to cut their positions on fear, if the trade is against the trend. Equally for intraday traders during gap opening days, they don't get opporunity to do trades and even if they initiate any, it takesout SL quite frequently.

Yesterday Reliance has broken the trendline in RSI and has gone below 40 and the stock is in absolute weakness for further downside. SBI has almost reached around 65 level in RSI and struggling around that level. Tisco nearing 25 level which I think is getting oversold.

The empirical study on Relative Strength Index points out, that in Bear Market stocks reach around 60 - 65 level and then fall to 25-20 range. That means one has to long around 25 - 20 range and exit around 60-65 level. Around 65 range one can take short position if any Negative reversal happens and for long around 25 range on positive reversal bar or IB high getting crossed.

Coming to technical levels for NF today, the Pivot is placed around 4362 which will act as a threshhold point for today's trade.

Nifty Futures Range for today : 4350 - 4255

Incase NF breaking either the high or low range of the above, one can trade as per Camarilla Equation as Breakout and Breakdown level of CAM are also closer to the above range.

Best Wishes

C T RAMESH RAJA

[rameshraja]

Hello Guys

A New Work Sheet for trading the futures for 12.09.2008.

Whenever a stock reaches a particular level one level below and above becomes support and resistance. You can use this for long and short.

Test this and give me feeback.


C T RAMESH RAJA

[rameshraja]

COMPASS FOR 15.09.2008


Nifty Futures broke most of the support and fell sharply on last Friday. The Nifty Future level of 4208 has become very crucial and breaking this, it is headed for a sharp down trend. It could probably fall to around 3900 level in the next few days.

In Real time chart of Nifty futures, there is a positive divergence in MACD Histogram and therefore Nifty can pullback at anytime.

Nifty Futures Range for 15.09.2008 : 4255 - 4090

Pivot for the day: 4216

In individual stocks, Reliance will continue to underperform and stock will fall to 1725 and followed by 1650.

I am also looking to short LIC Housing just above yesterday's close with SL at 332 for downside TGT of 292 - 284 - 279

Another stock which is looking very vulnerable for a fall is LITL breaking 282. Incase if it breaches 282, the stock can bounce to 294 level and SL should be 302. TGT on downside will be 265 - 250 - 235

ADAG stocks like Adlabs / Reliance capital / RNRL are also looking weak in charts and its a perfect short candidate on any rise with appropriate SL.

Best Wishes

C T RAMESH RAJA

[rameshraja]

COMPASS FOR 16.09.2008

Nifty Futures has broken the neckline of Head and Shoulder pattern in Daily charts and it is vulnerable for further fall.

Nifty Futures Range for the day: 3901 - 4065

If NF closes below 3893, then it is vulnerable for a big fall to 3355 - 3125.

In Individual stocks, most of them are looking weak and doesn't require any special mention. On every rally, one has to short this market with appropriate SL.

Best Wishes

C T RAMESH RAJA

[stockbakri]

RR sir,
Great work from you as usual, i sqaured up as per your advise yesterday below 3988. Today i have reshorted, because of your timely advise about the neckline breakout.
thanks sir.
regards