iCharts Discussions

[rameshraja]

COMPASS FOR 17.09.2008

Yesterday Nifty Futures made a low of 3930 and pulledback powerfully to around 4100 level, when many traders expected market to crack around 3800. Now Market has made everyone bullish after this pullback and I again find many talking about fancy TGTs on upside. Where are we headed from here .................

According to me, Nifty is in bearish mode and any pullback is an opportunity to short at higher levels. Excepting State Bank of India, no major stocks are in buy mode. Nifty EOD chart clearly shows MACD in sell mode / RSI below 40 , Momentum indicator below 100, Stochastic (14) is still in sell mode. Apart from that neckline of H & S is broken.

In real time, Nifty has faced resistance at 34 EMA yesterday and today due to positive global cues it can test 50 SMA. Nifty Futures has to test the weekly break down level of 4165 atleast once in this week and today with strong global cues, this will be done.

Nifty Futures Range for 17.09.2008 : 4175 - 4050

The leading Pivot point for intraday is 4177.

Pivot SL for the day : 4157.

In Individual stocks, Tisco seems to be nearing bottom and I feel there is not much of downside from the current level and I will be watching ICICI Bank closely.

Best Wishes

C T RAMESH RAJA

[hdobhal]

Dear RR Sir,

I agree with you on all (most) indicators are in sell mode and I would add to your view that there are good chances we see around 3500 level THIS MONTH itself.

Sorry all bulls, I hope you will forgive me for not being on your side...

THIS IS A BEAR MARKET. DO YOU BULLS UNDERSTAND? THE WAY TO GO IN BEAR MARKETS IS SELL RALLIES AND DO NOT BUY DIPS.

But, bulls are required in a bear market, otherwise who will we sell to?

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish

[rameshraja]

Dear Harish

Thanks for giving your views to my writeup. If Nifty Futures closes below 3985, then momentum on downside will get accelerated.

As you rightly pointedout, Bulls are necessary in Bear market for bears to pound on them and vice versa for bulls in bullish market.

On the other hand, I am getting surprised by people still talking about market coming to 4800 and above in near term. But as market keep coming down, they also bring down their targets for pullback. Oflate, they don't talk about market crossing Jan high or 5500.

Best Wishes

C T RAMESH RAJA

[hdobhal]

Dear RR Sir,

haha, the bulls were first looking for all time new highs and now they are saying 4800 !!!

God bless them...

Harish

[rameshraja]

COMPASS FOR 18.09.2008

Nifty (Spot) has made negative reversal yesterday and and due to bad global cues the low of Positive reversal made on 16.09.2008 will also be takenout. Nifty Futures is refusing to test, even once the weekly break down level of 4165, which proves that bears are tightening their stance.

I was going through the chart of Nifty and a few of Index stocks and none has given the hint of possible turn around for upside so far. As usual, Nifty will gap today and we have to wait for trading opportunities to pullback.

Where are we headed today ?

Nifty Futures Range for 18.09.2008 : 4000 - 3830

Pivot the day: 4015

Following are Nifty Futures levels and it could move between these levels
for the day. Whenever it comes to a particular level, the second level becomes SL. (Example, if it breaks 3854.65, then 3894.05 becomes SL.)


4013.35 3988.60 3973.35 3948.75 3933.60 3909.10 3894.05 3869.70 3854.65 3830.45 3815.50 3791.40 3776.55 3752.55.

Best Wishes

C T RAMESH RAJA

[rameshraja]

Hello guys

Please note that today's( 18.09.2008) range is below Pivot Level, and by oversight I have failed to mention in writeup.

C T R

[rameshraja]

MARKET COMPASS FOR 19.09.2008

As expected, yesterday Nifty Futures took support around 3830 and moved powerfully to around 4070 making bears to go for run and forced them to cover their short position. Infact, yesterday volume in Nifty Futures is the highest in the last 52 weeks, if I am not wrong. Now the moot question is where are we headed from this pullback ? Is the pain on downside over ? Looking from technical point of view, it is NO.

After all ups and down in the last couple of months, Nifty has generated sell in MAsequence in EOD and as also 20 and 50 SMA converged and that too also given sell signal. Traders should be extremely careful in going long with the present setup, and market may bounce due to excessing selling done on the downside. I have been continuosly saying here, Nifty Futures has to test atleast once the weekly breakdown level of 4165 and because of strong global cues, it could do today.


NIfty Futures Range for 19.09.2008 : 4245 - 4017

Leading Pivot for intraday : 4089


Nifty Futures will move like waves in the following range.

How to trade by the following ? Example: If NF trades at 4118.55 and moves to 4159.25, then long with SL at 4118.55 and when it moves to 4184.50 trial it at 4143.70 and when it moves to 4200.15, then move the SL to 4159.25 and so on and so forth. Reverse is true for shorting.


4266.75 4241.25 4225.50 4200.15 4184.50 4159.25

4143.70 4118.55 4103.10 4078.10 4069.45 4062.65

4057.90 4047.30 4037.80 4028.30 4017.75 4013.00

4006.25 3997.70 3973.05


For Reliance Industries Limited

2076.15 2058.35 2047.40 2029.75 2018.90 2001.40

1990.60 1973.20 1962.45 1945.20 1939.20 1934.55

1931.25 1923.95 1917.38 1910.85 1903.55 1900.30

1895.70 1889.80 1872.85 1862.40


For State Bank of India:

1686.25 1670.25 1660.35 1644.50 1634.70 1618.95

1609.25 1593.60 1583.95 1568.45 1563.10 1558.90

1555.95 1549.35 1543.48 1537.65 1531.10 1528.20

1524.05 1518.75 1503.55 1494.20 1479.15 1469.85


For Reliance Capital:

1210.75 1202.35 1188.80 1180.50 1167.10 1158.90

1145.60 1137.45 1124.30 1119.75 1116.20 1113.70

1108.15 1103.17 1098.25 1092.70 1090.25 1086.75

1082.30 1069.45 1061.60 1048.90


Best Wishes


C T RAMESH RAJA

[nitinak]

Respected RR Sir,

Sir, did u forget to post the mkt. compass for 22-09-2008?

Sir please continue it.

Best Regards,

Nitin Kaklotar
Surat.

[tavrajan]

RR sir,
I am happy to see your levels.
Why you stopped suddenly??anyway Nifty movement is not that much good today. Please update the tomorrow level by tonight itself.

[rameshraja]

COMPASS FOR 23.09.2008

As I was indisposed for last couple of days, I could not post my view here yesterday.

Globally the countries are interferring into financial market trend which is not a good sign by banning short sales and other regulatory mechanism to curb shorts in the system. Its only a ventillator for gasping Bulls and for messy financial system. Any manual intervention in the market trend, will have a disaster effect and its only a question of time before market falls again with a big bang with double the force. These kind of intervention, historically, to main trend albeit produced the desired result only for a few days and main trend will continue to perpetuate when initial euphoria dies.

By infusing several billion of dollars into system or banning short sales / taking over failed financial institutions / etc., will all these add anything to bottomline of our stocks Acc / DLF / Tata motors etc. ? whatever they do globally today, are only fire fighting for the damage inflicted on their economy and its all only washing their dirty linen in public.

Coming to technicals...........Nifty had a merrytime along with global markets and nothing suggests technically for it, to come into bull hands.

Today's range for Nifty Futures: 4280 - 4100

Possible move of Nifty Futures for intraday will be as follows and you use this as explained in my previous post with two levels of SL:

4286.15 4260.60 4251.75 4244.80 4239.95 4229.10

4219.45 4209.70 4198.90 4194.05 4187.15 4178.40

4153.20 4137.65 4112.55 4097.05 4072.05

For Reliance Industries:

2064.15 2058.00 2053.15 2049.80 2042.25 2035.55

2028.75 2021.25 2017.90 2013.15 2007.05 1989.60

1978.85 1961.50 1950.80 1933.55

For State Bank of India:

1641.55 1631.80 1616.05 1606.35 1590.70 1585.35

1581.10 1578.15 1571.50 1565.60 1559.70 1553.10

1550.15 1546.00 1540.65 1525.35 1515.95 1500.75

1491.40 1476.35 1467.10

For Reliance Capital:

1364.10 1355.20 1340.85 1332.00 1317.75 1309.00

1294.90 1286.25 1272.25 1267.45 1263.65 1261.00

1255.10 1249.85 1244.50 1238.65 1236.00 1232.30

1227.55 1213.90 1205.50 1191.95 1183.60 1170.20


Best Wishes


C T RAMESH RAJA

[hdobhal]

Dear Ramesh Sir,

I agree with your view that such interferes in markets only lead to more pain ahead. Shorts are always a "requirement" for a healthy market just like longs are required by bears. The way regulatory authorities are banning short selling in selected shares/sectors means there will be no "short covering cushion" and bulls will die untimely death.

btw, sir, pls search google with following keywords "rameshraja nifty chart analysis" and see the result.

Sincerely, Thanks
Harish

[rameshraja]

Dear Harish

Thanks for concurring with my view.

Regards


C T R

[rameshraja]

COMPASS FOR 24.09.2008

Yesterday Nifty Future was not able to hold the initial morning gains and finally gaveup to close at 4143. In realtime chart of NIfty , moving average sequence is still biased towards upside and at yesterday's close it has tested 50 SMA.

Today its going to be two way movement in NF and probably Traders have to sweat a lot make money in intraday. In EOD chart of Nifty, it is still in sell mode and its not hinting for a turn around. As long as Nifty Future doesn't break 4032 there is no threat for it till Expiry of this settlement. on Downside strong support level is around 4060.

Today's Nifty Future Range: 4195 - 4100

Pivot for the day : 4195 ( which happens to be highest range specified above)

In individual stocks, Look at JSW steel and Kotak Bank around 590 and 605 to short with SL at 602 and 613 respectively. TGT for JSW steel should be around 555 and 535 and for Kotak 560 - 545.

Waves of Nifty Future levels for the day:

4228.85 4224.00 4213.20 4203.50 4193.80 4183.00

4178.20 4171.35 4162.60 4137.40 4121.90 4096.85

4081.40 4056.45 4041.10 4016.25 4000.95


For Reliance Industries Ltd:

2093.65 2082.65 2064.85 2058.70 2053.85 2050.50

2042.95 2036.15 2029.45 2021.95 2018.60 2013.85

2007.75 1990.30 1979.50 1962.15 1951.50 1934.25 1923.65


For Reliance Capital:

1295.20 1286.55 1272.55 1267.75 1263.95 1261.30

1255.40 1250.05 1244.80 1238.95 1236.30 1232.60

1227.85 1214.20 1205.75 1192.25 1183.90 1170.50

1162.25 1148.95 1140.80 1127.60 1119.55


For State Bank of India:

1564.40 1559.05 1554.85 1551.95 1545.35 1539.50

1533.65 1527.10 1524.20 1520.05 1514.80 1499.60

1490.25 1475.20 1465.95 1451.00 1441.85 1427.05


The method tp use the above levels have been explained by me in my post on 19.09.2008. ( Its a step two level SL system)


Best Wishes


C T RAMESH RAJA

[Stockhunter]

Dear RR sir, many thanks for reading through my forum thread and your appreciation and encouragement. Believe me its an honour sir.

Regards
SH

[cypandya]

CTR Sir,
Plz explain the efficient use of CAM levels in day to day trading..
i had the file which explain the use of BTS which u used to give..
sir plz explain with examples the use of CAM levels..

Rgrds,
Bhaumik Pandya