iCharts Discussions

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

Hey ST, how does it look after yesterday's weekly close?

SwingTrader · Posted: Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:40 am Post subject:

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

Thanks .. i agree too.

SwingTrader · Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 11:32 am Post subject:

NIFTY500 Index Rolling Returns

Please see the chart attached below. Nifty 500 index is charted along with the index's rolling returns. Red line is the yearly rolling return and green line is the quarterly rolling return.

It has been observed that when yearly rolling returns fall below quarterly rolling returns (blue circles on the chart), it indicates extended period of pessimism and could indicate coming market bottom. Vice versa, if yearly rolling returns rise too sharply and diverge too much from quarterly rolling returns then it indicates period of over optimism and could warrant caution (red circles on teh chart).

Currently, there doesn't seem to be too much optimism. The over optimism we had seem in 2017 up until early 2018 has been dissipated. We had seen tiny pockets of pessimism in early 2019 and May 2019.

Please use your own analysis on top of this. Also, note that this chart is suitable for long term investors who would like to position their portfolio with the coming tide.

*** NO RECOMMENDATION. THIS IS JUST FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY ***

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

That's very interesting info. Any other indices or charts you have then do share.

SwingTrader · Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:16 am Post subject:

Apka,

Here is Midcap index rolling returns chart...

Midcap index yearly rolling returns are below quarterly returns since Jan 2019. Midcaps seem to have taken a big beating and it could be time for them to start moving up.

One other point I get from these charts is that they are useful to initiate long term holdings but the charts can't be used for exiting portfolios in anticipation of a decline. Markets continue to move up for a long time after there is over optimism. Eg. See 2003-2007 period, yearly returns were above quarterly returns for the whole time. So no indication of decline is given by the charts. Whereas once they dropped below quarterly returns in Oct 2008, things began to improve for the market within months. Still, there is lot of lead time and one can time markets using these charts but for long term investors this chart could be very useful.

BTW I had restricted data on NIFTY500 index chart so the chart is more clear, will later post the whole chart as one should get the full perspective.

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

Cool thank you ST

SwingTrader · Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:27 pm Post subject:

Saw this on Twitter today, somebody had posted it this morning....

3 yrs rolling returns chart of indexes.

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

SwingTrader · Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:22 am Post subject:

SwingTrader · Posted: Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:01 am Post subject:

NSE Market Breadth Oscillator as on 9th July 2019

Scenario changes completely for the short-to-intermediate term. For long term investors, it continues to get better as scenario gets closer to the 2013 sort of market where they can acquire stocks at great valuations for long term. We are not there yet but we keep getting closer. Manual "SIPers" will probably get another chance where both short term and medium term breadth will converge at the bottom - a great place for adding to long term mutual fund & ETF holdings.

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

After a long time nifty is below s&p dollex 30 and Baltic dry index on the verge of breaking a 5 year high. highly confusing as it suggests a strong bullish future while technical suggest otherwise.

SwingTrader · Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:27 pm Post subject:

I agree, quite confusing signals. Technically we are near highs so not too bearish. Rolling returns also indicate good time to buy mid and small cap stocks but such conditions can remain this way for a while so no clear signal to go long right now. If market goes down for a while the rolling returns picture would probably just get better. So can't decide on it on a short/medium term basis.

Have to depend completely on price action going forward as always.

Breadth oscillator indicates possible short term upturn soon. Could be tomorrow or could be in the next few days (unless we break down from these levels). Both short and medium term near bottom means could be a good time for long term MF/ETF adds.