iCharts Discussions

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

apka, it was a freak (read deliberate) trade. NF opened 20 up and NS opened 4 down giving a premium of almost 67. Options did not open according to NF.

Sorry ST to spoil your thread but just to clarify to apka.

veerappan · Expert Joined: 19 Dec 2007 Posts: 3680

SwingTrader · Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:01 pm Post subject:

Options sentiment which is currently in sell mode is close to giving a buy signal. Well...if today was a breakout then this buy signal is coming late. Also, the signal bands are contracting, we could see a big move soon...no idea which way.

SwingTrader · Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2012 5:47 pm Post subject:

Options sentiment gave a buy signal and then rebounded (strong sell off). Even though I am long (breadth cycle trades) I am in two minds and think NF could go down. If it happens I will be ready. The overall trend for positional is still up but one just needs to keep an eye out for downside reversal.

Medium term breadth is poised to breakdown. This indicates that broad market is at crossroads of sorts. A breakout to the upside could continue the trend up for a while but a breakdown here can start the medium term down cycle.

Whatever it is, I feel a volatile move could be coming. More in the breadth cycles forum thread...

p_wangdu · White Belt Joined: 30 Apr 2012 Posts: 126

SwingTrader · Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 9:00 am Post subject:

The 7th Nov buy signal on options sentiment turned out to be a whipsaw as a sell was triggered on 16th.

SwingTrader · Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 9:00 am Post subject:

Options sentiment continues to be bearish. I don't think we are done with the down move yet. But a break out above 5670 on NF (recent highs + gap resistance) could start a short-term up move. I would not stay short above this level (on a daily closing basis).

SwingTrader · Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 9:18 am Post subject:

I had once mentioned earlier about how I always hold two sets of options positions - one for sideways market and one for trending market (these are timed positions and are not held constantly every month like the sideways positions). The idea is to manage the losing position skillfully and keep losses low. I have closed the sideways position for this month and this is the second consecutive month where the sideways positions (credit spreads / iron condors) have won huge. Trend based positions, not surprisingly, have lagged significantly.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

ST, it would be interesting to see your updates on both threads.

SwingTrader · Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 3:59 pm Post subject:

SwingTrader · Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 9:38 pm Post subject:

I am going back to the drawing board on the options sentiment. I greatly benefited and profited from it during the long-term downtrend from end of 2010 to end of 2011. It has become clear that the signals during uptrends need to be handled differently as one does not see volatile bearish extremes much during uptrends. I will be looking into this in detail on how to make the signal bands adaptive.

Attached is a chart that shows how the bearish extremes have changed once the market shifted to uptrend mode.

NittinP · White Belt Joined: 23 Sep 2012 Posts: 48

Hi ST,

I was watching news in which one of experience technical analyst pointed significance of open interest in NIFTY.

As far as I remember, he said whenever open interest goes below 1.6Cr and rises above it, then there is movement of 500 points in NIFTY. So according to him 6100 is the Next NIFTY level.

Can you please plot graph of open interest with respect to NIFTY chart??

Regards,

NP

Gemini · White Belt Joined: 28 Apr 2009 Posts: 166

Dear ST,

Thanks for your posts on both threads. On options sentiments, you seem to be having a re-look at the algorithm. Will be interesting to learn about new ways to looking at the sentiments.

I have observed that year 2012 has seen IndiaVix moving down ( from ~ 30 to now ~ 15), (indicating more of institution / HNI participation ? ). Would this have made any impact on Options sentiment algo?

Will keep watching for updates from your studies.

SwingTrader · Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:04 am Post subject:

SwingTrader · Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:24 am Post subject: