iCharts Discussions

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

hmmm, makes sense!

SwingTrader · Posted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 8:33 am Post subject:

Major shift in options sentiment

smartcancerian · Yellow Belt Joined: 07 Apr 2010 Posts: 542

ST..sir..pl elaborate..thanx

SwingTrader · Posted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 8:52 pm Post subject:

smartcancerian · Yellow Belt Joined: 07 Apr 2010 Posts: 542

ST sir...thanx for elaboration..Can you please also ratify this observation..There was maximum OI in 6000 Ce & 5800Pe in dec series..on friday when nifty fell..5800 pe shed around 4lakh OI..& 5900pe also showed drop in OI of more than 18 lac..indicating some of put sellers (smart money/premium eaters) are now not confident of holding 5800 levels & as such winding up their positions...Your comments pl..
Thanx...

SwingTrader · Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 9:34 am Post subject:

SwingTrader · Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:05 am Post subject:

anandrathi12,

Here is the latest chart as discussed in sbox.

SwingTrader · Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:33 pm Post subject:

Here are the latest sentiment charts:

Options Sentiment

Even though we haven't got a serious pullback, the sideways move throughout this month has pushed the options sentiment to bearish extreme. This indicates probable continuation of the up move. Even if we get a pullback, it could be shallow.

Breadth Cycle

Breadth has gone down throughout the sideways move this month. This supports the above options sentiment indication. A pullback cannot be ruled out but the probability of a sharp/deep pullback is low.

NIFTY 2nd Month ATM Straddle Net Status

I had earlier posted a link about analyzing the NF "next month" ATM straddle OI for clue to the near term direction of the market. This chart indicates the net status (red line). The red line above 0 indicates bullish options OI status, below 0 indicates bearish. The ATM straddle OI has come down significantly from its high in Nov 2012 end but is still above 0. This indicates a neutral to mildly bullish status.

SwingTrader · Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 8:15 pm Post subject:

The post below was about the current market sentiment. The whole sentiment picture can change quickly if options sentiment stays around bearish extreme or breadth continues to stay negative instead of reversing at the lows or ATM straddle net status drops below 0 for a while. So tracking price itself is important as it overrides everything in the market.

I will be watching 5968 & 5840. Below 5840 (Dec lows) we could see a deeper correction if price sustains below it. Keeping fingers crossed as I need a correction to add to my positional longs, I have been waiting since a while for this.

Options OTM credit spreads continue to perform very well as the move has been sideways since early this month.

SwingTrader · Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 8:27 pm Post subject:

Today's NF 5 min chart with iCharts (daily) levels

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

good one

SwingTrader · Posted: Tue Feb 26, 2013 10:49 am Post subject:

anandrathi12, latest options sentiment chart as per your sbox request. Sorry for the delay.

Market at bearish extreme. A rally, when it starts, can be big. Clear price confirmation is a must, no need to hurry.

I am not posting this chart regularly because, as I mentioned earlier, I think this chart seems to indicate the obvious. It is clear that the market is short term bearish now and this chart is confirming we are at a bearish extreme. I think this chart just confirms, I do not see any leading indications here. But I don't mind posting when required, just continue to let me know in sbox.

Also posting updated long term market breadth chart in the "Trading Journals" thread.

anandrathi12 · White Belt Joined: 01 Dec 2010 Posts: 38

ST sir,

Thanks for update. thanks

I wanted to see these extreme bands only.

There looks a posb of little more downside. As it is yet to have 3rd extreme bands touch before any reversal which was seen in many of the earlier instances. Even if 3rd band is nt touched, thn it does touch 0.2 level before reversal.
I think at that time(0.2 level touch or 3rd band touch) we can look for small contra longs as per signal and risk.

P.S: plz keep postng atleast these charts on a weekly basis or on major change as earlier.
artist

Thanks..

reagards,
Anand

SwingTrader · Posted: Tue Feb 26, 2013 11:27 am Post subject:

SwingTrader · Posted: Tue Feb 26, 2013 12:55 pm Post subject:

NSE Avg % Changes - 1 Month vs 3 Months

I had last looked at this chart in Nov-Dec when the 1 month % changes had deteriorated significantly compared to 3 months. Now 3 months % changes too have gone down significantly along with 1 month % changes.