iCharts Discussions

SwingTrader · Posted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 10:25 pm Post subject:

Things are at an extreme for sure but it is important to let things play out as volume has increased significantly recently (especially on declines) so I would not be surprised if we see more declines before we go sideways and then up. Follow price for now as it will rule, more so during volatile times.

Currently, according to me bullish scenario is only above 5975-6000 until we see more lower pivot highs forming on reactions. Let us see how it goes.

SwingTrader · Posted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 10:28 pm Post subject:

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

true ST

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

ST,

Could you please post updated breadth chart and views on current scenario please.

Thanks,
Manoj

SwingTrader · Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 8:31 am Post subject:

Updated charts as of 28.03.2013

Market Breadth : Long term breadth now at bearish extreme along with medium & short term too - something that was last seen in Nov/Dec 2011. Of course, this condition can go on for a while as it did that time but if one has a ton of shorts it would be prudent to hedge around this time (one could always un-hedge on a continuation of the down move).

Options Sentiment : It has been at bearish extreme for a while now. The more time it spends here, the more strong & sustained the subsequent bullish move could be.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

ST,

Could you please post updated breadth chart and views on current scenario please.

Thanks,
Manoj

SwingTrader · Posted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:43 am Post subject:

Updated charts...as of 12.04.2013

Trend is obviously down. How far down can NF go? I am really not bothered about that, play the short side as long as trend is down. The key stuff to watch will be the tests of 5620 and 5775 levels on any upside reactions, especially the manner in which these levels are tested (price breaks through cleanly or reverses from there etc). The key test for a sustained bull move would be the test 6000 level which is now quite far.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

ST, I am still struggling to find some way to guage the sentiment to add some value to your research. I found that one of the indices used for sentiment is Capitulation Index and it works very well. Market reaches a bottom when CPI peaks and vice versa. Unfortunately I don't know how it is calculated and I understand it is a proprietary formula.

One fund in India calculates it for nifty and I had posted about it last week under "nifty view". For nifty, historically, an index of 1.5 means a bottom. A week before last, I think it was 1.4 or so. AND though it rose later, it has not reached 1.5 yet.

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

ST,

Could you please post updated breadth chart and views on current scenario please.

Thanks,
Manoj

anandrathi12 · White Belt Joined: 01 Dec 2010 Posts: 38

ST sir,

plz update options sentiment charts. Also longterm sentiment charts which hv not been posted for more thn a yr now..
artist

Thanks.

Anand Rathi

manojkr78 · Green Belt Joined: 07 Mar 2011 Posts: 1014

ST,

No updates for long time.......

SwingTrader · Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:07 am Post subject: Latest update

Sorry...have been too tied up with some work, so could not post. Here is the latest...

Do note that long term sentiment turned negative around mid-march and remains that way since.

jk99 · White Belt Joined: 20 May 2013 Posts: 81

thanks for update

anandrathi12 · White Belt Joined: 01 Dec 2010 Posts: 38

ST sir

a ton for much awaited update out of ur hectic schedule.

Also Can u plz post the longterm sentiment charts mapped over intermediate and nifty which you use to post long time back.
(Ur flagship sentiment charts you follow for investments.. Smile

)

Thanks..

Anand